Could we revive family four-seat aircraft with crummier jet engines?

As noted in Testing the first jets, the early jet engines were designed to last 25-35 hours (Germany’s) or 125 hours (England’s). Today’s jet engines rely on exotic materials and precision manufacturing so that they are almost 100% guaranteed to run 5000+ hours between major service events and the components will usually last at least 12,000 hours. Great for airlines and busy charter operators, but the typical private pilot with a family airplane flies only about 100 hours per year. Why does he/she/ze/they want to pay $500,000 to $1 million for an engine that is good for 50+ years of flying?

I wonder what would happen to the cost if we relaxed the reliability and service life specifications to be comparable to what we expect from a high-power piston engine, i.e., about 2,000 hours of operation and a failure every 50,000 hours. We can use parachutes for backup, like the Cirrus Vision Jet already does, or a second engine, if we’re making a “new Baron.”

Weekend pseudo-warriors of the sky who fly the L-39 are accustomed to overhauling the Ivchenko AI-25 engine every 1000 hours ($220,000, so about $220/hour, which would not completely change the economics of flying a Baron or a Cirrus). So that might be an example of what I’m talking about, but at a much higher level of power (blast a 10,000+ lb. aircraft to 400 knots).

I wonder if what we have now is an example of the best being the enemy of the good, leaving us with Wright Brothers-style piston engines in any aircraft that costs less than $1 million. Even a crummy turbine would have many advantages in terms of weight, smoothness, and, probably, reliability.

If the Germans could make a 35-hour jet engine at a reasonable cost in the early 1940s, with all of our modern technologies for machining, 3D printing, ceramics, etc., shouldn’t we be able to make a 2,000-hour turbine engine at a reasonable cost today?

From Oshkosh, 2003, a Sikorsky S-39, one of 21 built (1930s) and ripe for a turboprop conversion!

Related:

  • Jetcat, which makes turbojet engines for radio-controlled aircraft. The company is in Germany and the expected hours of operation between overhauls is 25 hours, same as on the Me 262! (though the hobbyists say that the engines can easily run for 100 hours)
  • Jet Central, a Mexican company that makes similar 25-hour turbines for the RC world.
  • Someone who wouldn’t like the reduced reliability goal… “Pilot Sues Airline For Emotional Distress After Mechanical Failure Led To PTSD” (Plane & Pilot): A former QantasLink pilot is suing the regional carrier to the tune of $780,000 for suffering and damages from a case of PTSD she says was caused by a 2018 mechanical failure of one of the Boeing 717’s engines, which resulted in the shutdown of the engine and an emergency landing. … The plane landed without incident, and no one was injured. … She’s the first woman of color to wear a Qantas uniform, and she has received numerous awards for her work in aviation. She said recently, acknowledging the recognition she had earned for her historic place in Australian airline history, that her advice for younger Australians was, “People still stop me to congratulate me at how proud they are to see female pilot, let alone one of colour. My response is the same ‘Action Inspires Action’—you can achieve your dreams, too. Be the best possible human you can be.”
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Freedom, British style

The national lockdown in the U.K. ends tomorrow, March 29, according to the U.K. government’s general aviation page:

Even after April 12, however, “travel should be minimised as far as possible.”

2020/2021 has been a great time to own an aircraft in the U.S. (it has been tough to find a parking space at our local airport from December through March due to so many people having departed for Florida), but apparently it hasn’t been so great in the U.K.!

Forget flying then. What about folks who might want to take the train over to France through the 31-mile Eurotunnel? “It is illegal to travel abroad for holidays”:

From the same page:

you need a legally permitted reason to leave your home, including to travel abroad.

Your emotional and mental wellbeing is important. Keep in regular contact with the people who usually support you: family, friends and colleagues, especially if you are self-isolating abroad.

Noted!

Related:

  • “Covid-19: Pubs could require vaccine passports – Boris Johnson” (BBC): The idea of asking pub goers to show a vaccine certificate was raised at Wednesday’s House of Commons Liaison Committee hearing, when Conservative William Wragg asked Mr Johnson if vaccine certificates were “compatible with a free society such as ours”. Mr Johnson said the concept “should not be totally alien to us” as doctors already have to have hepatitis B jabs. … Pushed further, Mr Johnson said: “I find myself in this long national conversation thinking very deeply about it” adding that the public “want me as prime minister to take all the action I can to protect them”. (i.e., “A government big enough to give you everything you want, is a government big enough to take away everything that you have.”) [American version: “Rutgers to require Covid-19 vaccine for students this fall” (CNN): Some experts say it remains a gray area — the US Food and Drug Administration issued an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for all three of the vaccines now in use in the United States. But that does not mean formal approval. … In its guidance on products that have emergency use authorization, the US Food and Drug Administration says that recipients must be informed that they “have the option to accept or refuse the EUA product and of any consequences of refusing administration of the product.” (not-at-risk 18-year-olds will have the option to refuse the experimental vaccines so long as they’re willing to do without a college education)]
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Commercial flights during Coronapanic: a mostly mask-free experience

A tale of a recent trip from Boston to Washington-Dulles on United Airlines… (my first on an airliner since the BC epoch (“Before Coronapanic”))

The good news is that all of our post-9/11 security fears have been resolved. I don’t remember hearing any announcements about “if you see something, say something”, leaving cars unattended at the curb, or calling the authorities after spotting unattended bags.

The not-so-good news is that our security fears have been replaced by COVID-19 fears. The best news, though, as anyone in California or Spain can attest, is coronavirus can never succeed amongst masked humans, no matter how primitive the mask technology. Combining these two, the airport authorities and the airlines have cooperated to bombard passengers with literally hundreds of signs and announcements regarding masks: (1) wear them, (2) don’t wear them under your nose, (3) don’t worry about COVID-19 if you’re masked, etc. I stopped counting at 200 exposures (signs+audio) after less than 30 minutes in Logan airport.

After being educated literally hundreds of time on this topic, did I wear a mask in the terminal? No. I sat down at a Legal Sea Foods restaurant across from the gate, ordered a salad and an ice tea, and timed the completion of my meal to coincide with the final boarding call.

One improvement is that the gate agents no longer do “hurry up so that you can wait in the jet bridge.” I was handed a disinfecting wipe as soon as I walked onto the plane. But if I were worried enough about getting COVID-19 from surface contamination to use the wipe, why would I have been on the plane to begin with? (see Does disinfectant theater contribute to coronaplague?)

Unlike Delta, United does not block the middle seats. They’ve cut so many flights that, despite the minimal demand, most people on my BOS-IAD leg were jammed into completely occupied rows. I’m a “Silver” member so I ended up towards the front in a row with an empty middle seat between myself and a slender young guy who seemed completely uninterested in the Festival of Corona.

The United app delivers this message if you open it up in flight:

The lead flight attendant on the plane delivered the same message multiple times over the PA as well. He took care to say that he’d seen passengers wearing masks improperly and that this would not be tolerated.

As soon as we took off, though, the Cart of Demaskification was brought out. People like me who hadn’t asked for a drink were offered one. I responded to the offer with “Coke please” and was given an entire can… which takes about as long to drink as the flight time from Boston to D.C. The fine print above says that people are supposed to put on a mask “between bites and sips”, but I didn’t see anyone doing that. So masks are like face seatbelts: required for takeoff and landing.

On arrival at Dulles, the messaging regarding masks resumed. Here’s a big electronic sign that presumably used to promote all of the great things going on in Virginia. Now it is “Mask Up Virginia” over a Dunkin’ Donuts sign:

(see also Public health, American-style: Donuts at the vaccine clinic and “90 percent of COVID deaths occur in countries with high obesity levels: study” (New York Post, March 5, 2021))

The only other message that the airport authorities seemed interested in delivering was a hearty rainbow flag welcome:

The return trip was similar, right down to the full can of soda served shortly after takeoff (45-minute cruise segment). Although the flight was not crowded, the terminal was jammed. Perhaps large sections have been shut down, which means passengers are now on top of each other near the gates that remain in use. The sit-down restaurants are, as at Logan, highly sought-after locations for those who want to relax unmasked, and there were (socially distanced) lines forming in front of some.

I joined the connoisseurs at the forbidden-in-Boston Chick-fil-A, which meant that I was unmasked for almost my entire wait. (One doesn’t want to wolf down a delicious meal that is denied to most residents of Maskachusetts.)

If anyone in the gate area actually did have coronavirus, there was a sufficiently dense crowd for spreading it:

I wouldn’t recommended the experience for those who are anxious about COVID-19. While you’re constantly being reminded about how hazardous COVID-19 is, there isn’t enough room in the airport to be truly distant from those who are potentially infected. People sit glumly with their masks on, waiting to see how the Russian roulette game that they’ve chosen to play will turn out. Unless you believe in the effectiveness of crude non-N95 masks, it’s the same risk level as being in a crowded Miami club, but a lot less fun.

Update 3/18: “Climate czar John Kerry caught going maskless on flight” (New York Post); Kerry’s response on Twitter: “If I dropped my mask to one ear on a flight, it was momentary. I wear my mask because it saves lives and stops the spread. It’s what the science tells us to do.

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Proof that you can make money using my blog as an investment guide…

… just do the opposite of whatever I’m bullish about.

Me: Two-thirds full airline idea (12/23/2019)

Me: Coronavirus will breathe life into my two-thirds-full airline idea? (3/23/2020)

“What Delta’s Big Bet on Blocking Middle Seats Means for Flying” (Wall Street Journal, 2/10/2021):

The last U.S. airline with this policy has lost fliers to carriers with looser rules—here’s why Delta is holding out for now

The grand experiment of blocking the middle seat on airplanes has proved what we have known all along about air travel: More people care about a cheap fare than comfort, or even pandemic safety.

The bottom line for Delta during the pandemic has been bigger losses than rival airlines selling all their seats. Delta was the most profitable U.S. airline in the final six months of 2019. That flipped during the pandemic. In the last six months of 2020, Delta had the biggest losses, with a net loss of more than $6 billion, greater than United and Southwest combined.

Even with state governors telling people that coronavirus was so dangerous that we should close schools and have children stay home to get fat and stupid, close society and have adults stay home to get fat, drunk, opioid-addicted, and stupid, and imprison/fine people for breaking a variety of rules that were apparently in conflict with the First Amendment right to assemble, consumers decided that coronavirus was not dangerous enough to be avoided by paying a little more for an airline ticket (and getting a much more luxurious experience as well).

One of the harbors in Hilton Head, South Carolina where you can keep the yacht that you buy after acting (after reversing the sign) on my advice:

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The Brave New World of Human-carrying Drones will have the same dashboard as the old world

“Joby Picks Garmin G3000 For eVTOL” (Avweb) suggests that the exciting new world of drones, which I hope will have enough software intelligence to prevent flying into obstacles (see New York helicopter crash: why not robot intelligence? and Aviation weather reports at the time of Kobe Bryant crash), will have the same dashboard as today’s business jets: a Garmin G3000 (seemingly way more complex than it needs to be).

I’m wondering if this will extend the life of traditional flight schools using traditional trainer airplanes and helicopters. If a lot of our skills translate into the Super Drone world (I’m hopeful that “eVTOL” is not the final term for this category of aircraft), perhaps folks with standard pilot certificates will still have a role to play.

Here’s what the G3000 looks like inside a Cirrus Vision Jet (three touch screens on the bottom that control the two non-touch screens on top):

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Cirrus SF50 Vision Jet impressions

A beginner jet pilot owns a Cirrus SF50 G2 and this report is based on two flights with him.

Best news first: as on the SR22, the air conditioning is awesome! This is the ultimate machine for Florida and Texas.

The visibility is great from the front and back seats, much better than in a typical bizjet. The windows are huge and the panel is compact. Cirrus media photo:

On the other hand, it is almost impossible to take pictures out of the front with an iPhone due to the fact that the autofocus system gets confused by a coating inside the windows and thinks that the subject (at infinity) is just a few inches away. Here’s the multi-function display, one of two big screens. See if you can find, amidst the clutter, how much fuel is left!

Do you care about the amps going into each battery during normal operations in which both generators are running smoothly? How about fuel? Do you care how many gallons are in each tank? If you said “I care the same about battery amps and fuel” then the Garmin G3000 is the system for you! These items are presented at the same size in the same color with the same prominence.

The automation philosophy is like nothing one would ever find outside of aviation. For example, the probe heat is limited to 5 minutes on the ground. The aircraft knows whether it is flying and should be able to guess whether it is taxiing out to fly. Why can’t the probe heat come on automatically, maybe with an annunciator, when the airplane is getting close to the runway? And then turn itself off after landing?

The airplane is ripe for Asiana 214-style confusion about who is responsible for doing what. There is an autopilot. There is an autothrottle (confusion about which was a prime cause of the Asiana 214 crash). The panel looks more or less the same, however, in the following states: (1) pilot is doing everything, (2) pilot is being given a flight director suggestion about aircraft attitude, (3) autopilot is flying, but pilot is responsible for setting engine power, (4) autopilot is flying and the magic computer systems are responsible for setting engine power. There are, of course, subtle text and graphic cues to distinguish these four modes, but they’re not strong. In the picture above, for example, we were on autothrottle, but the percent thrust meter doesn’t say anything about that.

If I were going to design a similar system, I would make the stuff for which the computer was responsible turn gray (even the PFD would mostly be gray during autopilot ops!). The fuel state would be prominently displayed while the normal-operation engine/electrical gauges would be subdued/hidden.

Vibration is minimal compared to a piston-powered aircraft or a turboprop. Noise isn’t so bad in the front with noise-canceling headsets, but our rear passenger, a Cirrus SR22 renter, said that he was “surprised” as how noisy it was sitting right under the engine. (Update: my measurements of cabin noise)

The slide-o-rama seats are awesome. If you’re used to yoga-class-for-the-old-and-fat, as in the PC-12 and all of the bizjets with pedestals, you’ll appreciate that the Vision Jet is by far the easiest jet for getting in and out of the pilot seats.

Rumor has it that a slightly heavier long-range version of the Vision Jet is in the works. At that point it is tough to understand why someone would want to buy a TBM (longer range, similar speed and altitude capability; higher price).

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Kobe Bryant crash: NTSB says that it was all the pilot’s fault

From a year ago… Aviation weather reports at the time of Kobe Bryant crash:

Assuming that it was bad weather that led to this accident, the engineering question is “Why couldn’t the $10 million helicopter fly itself away from obstacles, the way that a $400 DJI drone can?”

A Sikorsky is equipped with multiple computer-readable attitude sources so that the onboard processors know whether the machine is pitched or banked. It has multiple GPS position sensors so it knows where it is. It has at least one terrain database so it knows where the obstacles are. It has autopilot servos capable of maneuvering the aircraft. Why doesn’t it have the intelligence to say “You’re about to hit something, would you like me to take over and fly away from these obstacles and park on the ramp at the Van Nuys Airtel so that we can all relax?”

From 2019… New York helicopter crash: why not robot intelligence?

Thus we have a machine with autopilot servos that can manipulate cyclic and collective. The machine came with a glass cockpit so it also should have at least two digital attitude sources (whether the helicopter is pitched up, banked left, etc.). Finally, it almost surely had a GPS receiver and a digital terrain database, which would have included the obstacles of Manhattan.

Media coverage centered on the pilot’s lack of an instrument rating (example: CNN). (In fact, being capable of instrument flight does not help that much unless one is actually planning an IFR flight from airport to airport with established procedures for departure and approach/landing.)

Nobody seems to have asked “If it had autopilot servos, attitude sources, and a GPS, why couldn’t a $10 million helicopter fly itself through the low clouds, away from the buildings, and to the destination? A DJI drone would have been able to do that.”

We expect so much of our phones and so little from our aircraft!

The NTSB issued “Pilot’s Poor Decision Making, Spatial Disorientation, Led to Fatal Helicopter Crash” yesterday:

“Unfortunately, we continue to see these same issues influence poor decision making among otherwise experienced pilots in aviation crashes,” said NTSB Chairman Robert Sumwalt. “Had this pilot not succumbed to the pressures he placed on himself to continue the flight into adverse weather, it is likely this accident would not have happened. A robust safety management system can help operators like Island Express provide the support their pilots need to help them resist such very real pressures.”

The solution to the age-old problem of scud-running, in other words, is a bureaucrat with a safety management document, not a few lines of DJI-style code.

A 2006 photo from a Robinson R44 helicopter (picking it up at the factory and flying back to Boston). The LA freeways are easy to follow, but they climb up towards the clouds whenever there is a ridge.

Meanwhile, the “supersized DJI” world got a boost this week as United ordered eVTOL aircraft from “Archer” (not Piper Archers!).

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COVID for the rich at Super Bowl LV?

The Super Bowl promises to be as jammed as ever. I recently received an email offering tickets starting at $5,500 per seat. (I explained this concept to the kids, noting that it would cost as much for our family to attend than to purchase a nice new car. The 5-year-old almost never is exposed to broadcast television, but still managed to respond “We could watch it on TV for free.”)

Isn’t there a risk of COVID spreading in the stadium, which holds between 65,618 and 75,000?

Looks as though climate change activist Bill Gates’s investment in Signature Flight Support (supplier of jet fuel for the world’s Gulfstream owners) will be secure. Even this year, the expectation is for half of the world’s private jets to converge on a few airports. Email from the FAA…

A reservation program to facilitate ground services at the following Tampa Bay area airports will be in effect Feb. 3 – 9, 2021. Pilots should contact the Fixed Base Operator (FBO) at their airport to obtain reservations and additional information.

  • Tampa International Airport (TPA)
  • Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport (SRQ)
  • Lakeland Linder International Airport (LAL)
  • St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport (PIE)

Special air traffic procedures to minimize air traffic delays and enhance safety will be in effect for the following airports:

  • Tampa International Airport (TPA)
  • St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport (PIE)
  • Lakeland Linder International Airport (LAL)
  • Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport (SRQ)
  • Brooksville-Tampa Bay Regional Airport (BKV)
  • Tampa Executive Airport (VDF)
  • Clearwater Airpark (CLW)
  • Pilot Country Airport (X05)
  • Albert Whitted Airport (SPG)
  • Zephyrhills Municipal Airport (ZPH)
  • Peter O. Knight Airport (TPF)
  • Tampa North Aero Park (X39)
  • Plant City Airport (PCM)
  • Bartow Executive Airport (BOW)
  • Winter Haven Regional Airport (GIF)
  • South Lakeland Airport (X49)
  • Venice Municipal Airport (VNC)

Related:

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Portsmouth, New Hampshire and home (coastal aerial photos)

Readers will be relieved to learn that this is the last in the series of New Hampshire and Maine coastal aerial photos. This batch goes from Portsmouth, New Hampshire over the rich kids’ Phillips Academy Andover and to our home base, East Coast Aero Club at Hanscom Field.

From our Boston to Bar Harbor, Maine trip in a Robinson R44 helicopter. Tony Cammarata was in back with a door removed and a Nikon D850. Instrument student Vince Dorow and I were flying.

Also available as a streaming 8K video.

Thanks to Rob Brigham and the ECAC maintenance crew for a squawk-free helicopter trip!

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