How can U.S. population be forecast under our current asylum-based immigration system?

by philg

The Congressional Budget Office has a recent report forecasting U.S. population for the next 30 years: The Demographic Outlook: 2022 to 2052 (cbo.gov).

The authors say that U.S. population will continue to grow, all due to immigration:

Since immigrants have a higher birth rate than native-born Americans, the above chart shows that there will be a dramatic increase in the percentage of the U.S. population that is either immigrants or children of recent immigrants (but this decline in percentage of native-born cannot be characterized as a “replacement”).

The southern border is open to anyone who is willing to walk across. Anyone who walks across is entitled to claim asylum, entering a process that could take years. Depending on the country of origin, a denial of asylum has no practical effect in terms of headcount. The migrant cannot be deported to a country such as Venezuela where the U.S. does not have an agreement in place with the government. (NYT)

How can the demographers know what percentage of the 28 million Venezuelans will decide to walk into the U.S., much less what percentage of the rest of the 7+ billion people on Planet Earth who are not already Americans? Given our current asylum-based immigration policy, unless we know how many countries will experience Venezuelan-style economic or political issues over the next 30 years, how can we know how many people will walk into the U.S. and stay forever?

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Giorgia Meloni Makes History

by philg

Giorgia Meloni’s life, in many respects, traces the arc of progress for women in Italian society. Her mother, Anna Paratore, was born in 1952, just 7 years after women in Italy gained the right to vote in national elections.

It has taken a long, long time for the promise of women’s full participation in Italian democracy to be realized. Ms. Meloni moved it a big step closer this week, as she became the first woman nominated for the leadership of Italy by a major party.

Ms. Meloni’s nomination — bringing women, barred first by law and then by custom, to the pinnacle of Italian politics — is to be celebrated as inspiration for young Italians, and as hope for women in nations and cultures that deny them the most basic opportunities. It is further proof that opening doors to women elevates and strengthens a nation.

Ms. Meloni, who grew up in an era of few opportunities for women, revealed strength and tenacity building a career that spanned the world. Her education and work ethic eventually opened many avenues to her, and — despite forays into lucrative pursuits like journalism — she has always returned to a path of service.

Loosely related, “Hillary Clinton Makes History” (NYT, July 29, 2016):

Hillary Clinton’s life, in many respects, traces the arc of progress for women in American society. Her mother, Dorothy Rodham, was born in 1919, a year before the 19th Amendment gave women the vote.

It has taken a long, long time for that amendment’s promise of women’s full participation in American democracy to be realized. Mrs. Clinton moved it a big step closer this week, as she became the first woman nominated for the presidency by a major party.

Mrs. Clinton’s nomination — bringing women, barred first by law and then by custom, to the pinnacle of American politics — is to be celebrated as inspiration for young Americans, and as hope for women in nations and cultures that deny them the most basic opportunities. It is further proof that opening doors to women elevates and strengthens our nation.

Mrs. Clinton, who grew up in an era of few opportunities for women, revealed strength and tenacity building a career that spanned the world. Her education and work ethic eventually opened many avenues to her, and — despite forays into lucrative and sometimes regrettable pursuits like her corporate speechmaking — she has always returned to a path of service.

(Of course, the parallels are not complete because Giorgia Meloni did not obtain her position by having sex with or being married to a former leader of Italy.)

Separately, I wonder if this election proves my Dutch friend correct. On the phenomenon of elites packing a country with low-skill immigrants and then, as predicted by a Harvard analysis, the working class attempting to vote out the elites, “They forgot to take away their right to vote.”

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If the Migrants expelled from Martha’s Vineyard can afford lawyers, why not plane tickets back to San Antonio?

by philg

“Migrants flown to Martha’s Vineyard have filed a lawsuit against Gov. DeSantis” (state-sponsored NPR, 9/20):

A civil rights law firm filed a federal class action lawsuit on Tuesday against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and others for transporting around 50 immigrants from San Antonio, Texas, to Martha’s Vineyard, without shelter or resources in place.

Alianza Americas’ Executive Director Oscar Chacón said that DeSantis used the migrants to “advance a hate-filled agenda.” “That is why we have taken the steps to legally challenge what we view as not only a morally reprehensible action, but what we believe is also illegal,” he said.

Attorneys want DeSantis and his fellow defendants to be banned from “inducing immigrants to travel across state lines by fraud and misrepresentation,” as well as damages “for the harm suffered by the migrants.”

The migrants were harmed by being transported to a place that people were willing to pay $616 per night (plus taxes and the “resort fee” scam) to stay in (I checked the late-September Edgartown hotel rates a few days ago).

The Vineyard 50 have enough money, either in their pockets or via donation, to pay lawyers at least $500,000 to push a lawsuit through Federal court.

Is there a cheaper way to mitigate the harm that they’re suffering by being in Massachusetts surrounded by the fully vaccinated and masked applying “No Human Being is Illegal” signs and bumper stickers to lawns and cars rather than in Texas, which by implication is a superior place to live? If the Vineyard 50 can get from the off-island detention camp in which they’ve been interned to Boston’s Logan Airport, a one-way plane ticket back to the San Antonio paradise from which they were snatched is about $100:

For less than $6,000 every migrant could be back in San Antonio.

Perhaps the Vineyard residents who cheered as the migrants were bussed out of their upscale town could go to Logan Airport to see them off. Hawaiians have a tradition of hanging leis around the necks of people who arrive (“Nothing says Aloha like our Classic Orchid Lei”). The property owners of Martha’s Vineyard could establish a tradition of providing leis to migrants who are departing back to Texas and/or Florida (“Nothing says Adios like our Maskachusetts State Flower Lei made from mayflowers”).

From the Boston Globe recently, “Plane towing a banner reading ‘Vineyard Hypocrites’ circles Martha’s Vineyard”:

The last part is my favorite. Given an island whose real estate was already half empty due to the summer season winding down, it was a “herculean” effort for some of the country’s wealthiest people to shelter 50 migrants (out of millions) for two nights.

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Proponents of bigger government celebrate a tax-avoider (Yvon Chouinard, not Bill Gates this time)

by philg

The newspaper that says government should be bigger and that rich people should pay their fair share to fund that bigger government celebrates a billionaire who will pay essentially nothing at all in tax… “Billionaire No More: Patagonia Founder Gives Away the Company” (nytimes):

Rather than selling the company or taking it public, Mr. Chouinard, his wife and two adult children have transferred their ownership of Patagonia, valued at about $3 billion, to a specially designed trust and a nonprofit organization. They were created to preserve the company’s independence and ensure that all of its profits — some $100 million a year — are used to combat climate change and protect undeveloped land around the globe. … The trust, which will be overseen by members of the family and their closest advisers,

(“overseen by members of the family” mean that the trust can pay for almost everything that the family members might want, e.g., Gulfstream charter to Switzerland to hang out at Davos, rent a luxury apartment for a month in Paris to meet with others who are interested in climate change, etc.)

If he and his family members had sold $3 billion in shares while living in California, for example, they would have paid Federal income tax of 20%, Obamacare tax of 3.8%, and California state income tax of 13.3%. The 37.1% total rate would have yielded $1.11 billion in funding for all of the great things that Joe Biden is doing (e.g., paid for 1/500th of the student loan forgiveness scheme).

Instead, the government will get almost nothing and the money will be spent in ways over which citizens of the U.S. have no influence.

Even journalists who claim that they are experts on money seem to have some blind spots. “Patagonia Billionaire Who Gave Up Company Skirts $700 Million Tax Hit” (Bloomberg) does not consider the Obamacare and state income tax liabilities:

Still, the moves mean Chouinard won’t have to pay the federal capital gains taxes he would have owed had he sold the company, an option he said was under consideration. On a $3 billion sale, that bill could be more than $700 million. It also helps Chouinard avoid the US estate and gift tax, which is a 40% levy on large fortunes when they’re transferred to heirs.

From my 2019 Denver post, Patagonia uses backlit sidewalk billboards to inform downtown pedestrians that young good-looking American humans are facing extinction (which is why we need to bring in migrants?):

A Democrat-voting aircraft-owning friend, with the carbon footprint of an Argentinosaurus, responded to the Patagonia tax-avoidance scheme with “Loved reading that. Hurray for Chouinard”. Unless he assumes that government spending is going to be reduced, he loves that he will be paying the tax that Chouinard isn’t paying? He loves that none of the Chouinard fortune will ever be used to build a road that he can drive on to get to his airplane, a runway that he can use to take off in his airplane, or an air traffic control center that he can talk to? (admittedly much of the aviation infrastructure in the U.S. is funded separately via user fee taxes on aviation fuel and airline tickets)

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The immigrant makes a foray into Cambridge

by philg

A friend who emigrated (“high skill”) to the U.S. from Eastern Europe (not Russia itself!) texted our chat group:

I drove into Harvard Square for the first time in about 3 years. Driving through Cambridge: George Floyd yard signs, fair share yard signs [extra tax on the rich], BLM, resist, persist, love is love … The city is as decorated as Red Square was on the anniversary of the Great October Socialist Revolution

What’s the “fair share” amendment? It will undo the injustice in the Maskachusetts constitution that prevents the nation’s most progressive state from imposing a progressive income tax:

To provide the resources for quality public education and affordable public colleges and universities , and for the repair and maintenance of roads , bridges and public transportation , all revenues received in accordance with this paragraph shall be expended, subject to appropriation , only for these purposes . In addition to the taxes on income otherwise authorized under this Article, there shall be an additional tax of 4 percent on that portion of annual taxable income in excess of $1,000,000 (one million dollars) reported on any return related to those taxes. To ensure that this additional tax continues to apply only to the commonwealth’s highest income taxpayers , this $1,000,000 (one million dollars) income level shall be adjusted annually to reflect any increases in the cost of living by the same method used for federal income tax brackets. This paragraph shall apply to all tax years beginning on or after January 1, 2023 .

I wonder what the base is for the inflation adjustment. The value of $1 million on Election Day 2022? The value of $1 million on January 1, 2023? The value of $1 million in April 2024 (the first time that the tax has to be calculated)? At current rates of inflation, this is an important question!

Some inequality in and near New Bedford, MA, 2020 (photo: my friend Tony; helicopter flying: me):

Needless to say, property owners and realtors in Florida will be delighted if this new tax passes! (See “The Flight of New York City’s Wealthy Was a Once-in-a-Century Shock” (NYT): “The Manhattan residents who moved to Palm Beach County had an average income of $728,351, IRS data showed.”)

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New York Times inadvertently makes my point about inflation being driven by government spending

by philg

Back in June, I wondered Could our epic deficits drive inflation no matter how high the Fed raises rates? and this question was followed up Economist answers my question about high interest rates and high deficits. Here’s the NYT front page, September 22:

The government has been shoveling out cash to people who don’t do anything to earn it while at the same time trying to stanch the inflation bleeding with high interest rates charged to those who might have a productive purchase for money. Our best and brightest can’t figure out why inflation persists.

Related:

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See Disney World before it is destroyed by Ian?

by philg

Here’s the current predicted track for Tropical Storm Ian:

Worrisome for Disney World! On the other hand, if a ride is destroyed by Ian, perhaps it could be rebuilt along the lines suggested in Should Disney World offer a ride educating kindergartners on sexual orientation and gender identity?

Wednesday morning is the most likely arrival time of tropical storm-force winds in Orlando.

(Science-deniers will falsely claim, as a matter of misinformation, that hurricanes have never previously hit Orlando and that, being 100′ above sea level, it is not going to be washed away via climate change like all of the rest of Florida. The deniers ignore the fact that we’re in a new age of super hurricanes caused by not enough laptop class members collecting subsidies from the working class to buy electric cars and rooftop solar.)

Separately, if you’re interested in why Disney having its own county is so important, read Buying Disney’s World: The Story of How Florida Swampland Became Walt Disney World. The company told the State of Florida that it was going to use the land primarily to build a city, the Experimental Prototype Community of Tomorrow. Therefore, it made sense for the new city to be able to issue tax-free municipal bonds to fund infrastructure. Given the high rates of federal personal income taxes at the time, Disney’s borrowing costs were thus halved at zero cost to Florida (did not then and does not now have a personal income tax (barred by the state constitution)) but with a big cost to the US Treasury. The Democrats who are passionate about Disney retaining its own county are essentially arguing for continued tax avoidance by Disney.

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Dramatic change in mortgage rates contributes to America the Static

by philg

As loyal readers are aware, when it comes to homeownership I am a hater. The culture of homeownership is a huge drag on the U.S. economy, in my view, for the following reasons:

  • homeowners spend a lot of time working as amateur property managers, e.g., arranging maintenance or actually performing maintenance, that is much more efficiently done 100-600 units at a time
  • the high transaction costs, e.g., 5 percent real estate commission, discourage people from moving in response to the availability of better job opportunities

(This is not to say that I hate the single-family home as a living space. But I would think we’d be way more productive as a society if our single-family homes were owned commercially and managed professionally or, at the very least, owned in a condo-style arrangement where we didn’t have to touch anything beyond the interior.)

The “high transaction costs” in the second bullet point above are now vastly higher due to 2022 having become the Year of Mortgage Rate Drama. Someone who locked in a 3% rate, either via an initial purchase or a refinance, is sitting on an annuity that ends the minute he/she/ze/they decides to sell the house and move closer to where the better jobs are, potentially eliminating all of the economic benefit of switching jobs.

“After Years of Low Mortgage Rates, Home Sellers Are Scarce” (Wall Street Journal, 9/22/2022):

Housing inventory has risen from record lows earlier this year as more homes sit on the market longer. But the number of newly listed homes in the four weeks ended Sept. 11 fell 19% year-over-year, according to real-estate brokerage Redfin Corp. That is an indication that sellers who don’t need to sell are staying on the sidelines, economists say.

Larry and Corina Lewis of Tarrytown, N.Y., have two children and expect to need a bigger home in the next few years. But their current 30-year mortgage rate is 2.75%.

“The thought of giving this up in order to pay double in interest, that’s a nauseating thought for me,” Mr. Lewis said. Even if the average mortgage rate falls from its current level, he said, “I still don’t see it ever getting quite that low.”

The lack of housing inventory is one of the major reasons home prices have remained near record highs, despite seven straight months of declining sales as interest rates have roughly doubled since the start of the year.

Economists say it is difficult to predict how much the increase in mortgage rates could reduce home listings, because rates haven’t climbed this rapidly in decades.

Related:

  • “More Residents Looking to Leave San Francisco Than Any Other Major U.S. City, Report Finds” (Mansion Global (sister publication to WSJ), 9/20/2022): Despite life returning in force to big cities across the U.S., residents are still looking to leave them, and in even greater numbers than they were last year … In July and August, residents of San Francisco were the biggest flight risk. All told, San Francisco had a net outflow of 40,432 over the two summer months, a measure of how many more Redfin users looked to leave the city rather than move to it. Next on the list was Los Angeles with a net outflow of 34,832, followed by New York at 26,786. Washington, D.C., and Boston rounded out the top five. [Other than extended periods of public school closure, what do these cities have in common?] Miami was the most popular migration destination, “continuing a year-plus streak of the South Florida metro taking the number-one spot,” the report said.

Speaking of South Florida, here’s a fan of relocation to Jupiter. Mindy the Crippler’s priorities for a neighborhood are squirrels, rabbits, squirrels, rabbits, and, more importantly, squirrels:

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METAR poetry

by philg

From September 12, 2022:

KPHX 120353Z 17048G75KT 4SM TS BLDU SQ FEW028 SCT090 BKN110CB BKN160 31/19 A2987 RMK AO2 PK WND 18075/0353 WSHFT 0338 LTG DSNT SE AND SW CONS LTGCGIC SE-SW TS SE-SW MOV N BLDU FEW028 T03060194

Translation: At the Phoenix, Arizona, early in the morning in London (3:53 am GMT) on the 12th day of the month (i.e., evening on the 11th local time), wind was from the south (170 degrees) at 48 knots gusting to 75 knots. Visibility was 4 statute miles in a thunderstorm with blowing dust. There was a squall (SQ). Clouds will be the least of your problems, with just a few 2,800′ above the airport, some scattered clouds 9,000′ above the airport, and a broken layer of thunderstorm clouds 11,000′ up with one more broken layer 16,000′ above the airport. Temperature is a toasty 31C with a dewpoint of 19C. Altimeter setting is close to standard at 29.87 inches of mercury.

The Remarks (RMK) are tougher to parse. There was a wind shift at 3:38Z and now there is lightning distant SE and SW. CONS LTGCGIC SE-SW means “Continuous cloud-to-ground & in-cloud lightning to the southeast through south” (source). Finally, the thunderstorm is SE and SW, but moving north.

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Why aren’t U.S. billionaires trying to influence Mexico regarding migration throughput?

by philg

There are billionaires on both sides of the U.S. debate regarding whether we should welcome more low-skill migrants (this analysis by a Harvard professor says that an economically rational billionaire will choose more low-skill migrants). American billionaires are so rich that the kind of money Donald Trump was hoping to get from Congress for an effective border wall (about $11 billion) is within private reach.

Given how important the question of immigration is to the United States, I’m wondering why the billionaires arrayed on both sides aren’t in Mexico City offering to pay the Mexicans to adjust the flow. Democrat billionaires who’ve publicly advocated for more low-skill migrants could, for example, pay the Mexicans to assist caravans of those passing through from the south reach the Rio Grande. Republican billionaires could then step in and offer to pay to get the tide reversed or even pay Mexicans to Build the Wall!

Related:

  • “Democrats Decried Dark Money. Then They Won With It in 2020.” (nytimes, January 2022), suggesting that the Democrats would win because they have more money to spend
  • “Governor Ducey Announces Border Wall Gaps Near Yuma Are Now Filled” (https://azgovernor.gov/): … 3,820 feet of previously open border near Yuma, Arizona is now closed with a barrier of double-stacked and secured shipping containers. … In just 11 days, Arizona did the job the federal government has failed to do — and we showed them just how quickly and efficiently the border can be made more secure – if you want to.” (i.e., the federal government need not be the only wall-builder, even on the U.S. side of the border)
  • “Containers are no hindrance for migrants on Arizona border” (ABC, a few days later): Hours before Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey declared “a major step forward to secure our border” with the installation of 130 double-stacked shipping containers, hundreds of migrants found their way around them, belying his claim. They walked through tribal lands to the edge of a towering wall built during Donald Trump’s presidency to surrender to border agents waiting outside the reservation, expecting to be released in the U.S. to pursue asylum. Families, young parents carrying toddlers, elderly people and others easily waded through the knee-deep Colorado River before dawn Wednesday, many in sandals with shopping bags slung over their shoulders. Migrants continue to avoid barriers by going around them — in this case, through a 5-mile (8-kilometer) gap in the Cocopah Indian Reservation near Yuma, a desert city of about 100,000 people between San Diego and Phoenix that has become a major spot for illegal crossings. President Joe Biden halted wall construction his first day in office, leaving billions of dollars of work unfinished but still under contract.
  • “How Much of Trump’s Border Wall Was Built?” (US News)
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