Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

Uncle Joe’s restaurant

November 18, 2021 by philg

On the way to a ~~swamp~~ wetlands boardwalk, we stopped at a strip mall and found Uncle Joe’s:

Here’s the menu:

Depending on who was reading the menu, the General Tao’s Chicken was either $1.85 trillion or “zero”.

(When Uncle Joe is not busy stirring the wok… September 24 Remarks by President Biden:

We talk about price tags. The — it is zero price tag on the debt. We’re paying — we’re going to pay for everything we spend. So they say it’s not — you know, people, understandably — “Well, you know, it started off at $6 trillion, now it’s $3.5 trillion. Now it’s — is it going to be $2.9? Is it…”
It’s going to be zero — zero. Because in the — in that plan that I put forward — and I said from the outset — I said, “I’m running to change the dynamic of how the economy grows.”

)

Another menu, from “Everything in the House Democrats’ Budget Bill” (NYT, 11/18):

Stepping back from this a bit, isn’t this another way to transfer money from hard-working childless Americans to those of us fortunate enough to have kids? A single drone worker in a city is not a “family” and won’t get anything out of the biggest block at top left. The drone probably will earn too much to qualify for any of the housing or health care subsidies. The drone already has a job and is already in the U.S., so won’t obviously benefit from the $133 billion spent on immigration. The drone doesn’t have $80,000 in state and local taxes to deduct (the Democrats’ new limit, up from Trump’s $10,000; average property tax rate in the U.S. is about 1.08 percent, so this new tax code will be perfect for anyone with a $7.4 million house).

How about the birdwatching from the boardwalk? It was actually better in the strip mall:

I think that the above bird is a Great Blue Heron who identifies as white. We saw some sandhill cranes on the highway just before turning into Grassy Waters Preserve. After a few minutes of strolling, we learned that immigration is detrimental to natives:

We also learned that birds and alligators do not show up when tourists want them to…

(I think the tricks for wildlife spotting in South Florida are (a) wait until mating season for animals that migrate from the north, and/or (b) wait until the mid-winter dry season when animals collect near the remaining water.)

Most bizarre thing about the boardwalk? Even in the shaded heavily wooded parts… no bugs!

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Cost of all U.S. wars versus cost of coronapanic

November 18, 2021November 10, 2021 by philg

It was Veterans Day last week, when we celebrated anyone who carried a gun, flew a desk, stocked shelves, or conducted gender reassignment surgery on behalf of the U.S. military. The United States Department of Veterans Affairs has a budget roughly comparable to what the formidable Russians spend on their active duty military. To what could we compare our military budget that would make it look like a bargain?

What’s the scope of the spending that we’re hoping to put into perspective? Let’s start by looking at a Congressional Research Service report, “Costs of Major U.S. Wars” (figures in 2011 dollars). According to the pointy heads, the U.S. spent $4.1 trillion on World War II, $728 billion on the Vietnam War, and roughly $1.1 trillion for the first 10 years of our wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Our other wars were insignificant in costs by comparison.

What could have cost more than all of these wars? Coronapanic! Ignoring what cities and states might have spent, e.g., paying employees who weren’t working, the federal government alone has spent roughly $10 trillion so far (covidmoneytracker.org).

A Smithsonian National Museum of American History exhibit, November 2019:

“VA to offer gender surgery to transgender vets for the first time” (Military Times, June 19, 2021)

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Maybe it is time for that booster shot?

November 18, 2021November 19, 2021 by philg

Scary-sounding media reports of COVID illness aren’t that scary once one reflects that the media can draw on a population of 330 million to find the worst-case situations. Folks in Maskachusetts and California take risks greater than 1 in 330 million just driving to the dispensary to get their designated-essential-by-Covidcrats marijuana (when schools are closed for 18 months and you’re home with kids, it is important to be fully stoned!).

But what about when COVID strikes a friend? That’s a sample from a population of hundreds of people. The story below is about a friend in his early 50s and generally healthy/fit with a reasonable weight.

Sobering timeline:

late March: Moderna shot #1
late April: Moderna shot #2
October 28: indoor gathering in New York City among the fully vaccinated (by law and, in practice, carefully checked)
October 31: began to feel sick
November 3: fever of 101, prompting antigen test for COVID-19 (positive) followed by PCR test (positive)
November 3: due to history of asthma, qualifies for monoclonal antibody treatment under the rules established by New York Covidcrats (available as a free drive-through for Floridians!). Pays $2,500 for at-home (“in-apartment”?) administration at 6 pm.
November 4, 2 am: woke up with fever of 103.4
November 4, morning: fever down to 102
November 4-10: fever of around 100, sleeping 16 hours/day
November 13: mostly recovered
November 18: “pretty much back to normal, but still not working out”

His illness was at least as bad as anything that friends who got COVID-19 in 2020 reported (sample of about 50, mostly in expertly-managed-by-#Science New York and Massachusetts). And none of them had the antibodies or, indeed, any other medicine. I think the most likely possibilities, therefore, are the following

the vaccine was worthless, just as the flu vaccine is usually worthless
the vaccine was helpful, but only for a few months
the vaccine put evolutionary pressure on SARS-CoV-2 to evolve into a nastier form (as happened with the low-quality vaccine applied to Marek’s disease)

My best argument against Possibility #3 is Sweden. If SARS-CoV-2 had evolved to become much more aggressive, the natural immunity that the Swedes built up by letting the virus rage should not be effective against the evolved virus. Yet both deaths and COVID “cases” are more or less flat in Sweden, even as rising numbers in the rest of Europe send fearful populations back into their bunkers:

My friend had Moderna, which should be enough vaccine to treat a horse, at least if we believe that the Pfizer 30-microgram shots are sufficient for a 300 lb. human (Moderna shots are 100 micrograms of mRNA and a good-sized horse is 1,000 lbs.). His protection did not last longer than 6 months. Therefore, if we choose Possibility #2, it seems that those of us over 50 should get a booster after only about 4 or 5 months.

What if we choose Possibility 1, “the vaccine was worthless, just as the flu vaccine is usually worthless”? We could also call this the “viruses are smarter than humans” hypothesis. If a medicine is worthless, and even potentially harmful (maybe in 5-10 years we will have full information about these rushed-to-market vaccines?), can it ever be rational to take more of that medicine?

My answer: Yes!

Today’s official state religion includes Faucism. Religious people love to hear stories of sinners suffering their just deserts. Under Faucism, those who weakly “hesitated” regarding getting a vaccine are the biggest sinners of all (it was formerly those who gathered without masks, but there have been so many photos of the elites not following their own mask rules that it now has to be those who reject the Sacrament of the Needle). The only way to avoid becoming a statistic that will support whatever the Covidcrats want to inflict on Americans is to get the booster on the precise date that is suggested by the Covidcrats. (Consider the above story. If my friend hadn’t been vaccinated, the exact same Oct/Nov experience would have been ammunition for the next forced vaccination campaign.)

Equivalent logic: Officer Terry Hoitz (Mark Wahlberg) learns ballet to show that guys who did ballet were “queer”.

Followed by this clip:

Allen Gamble: Hey, I didn’t know you can dance.
Terry Hoitz: We used to do those dance moves to make fun of guys when we were kids to show them how queer they were, okay.

Readers: What do you think? Do we all have to get boosters just to show that vaccination (at least with current tech) won’t make COVID-19 go away?

Also, you may want this Faucism T-shirt for your safe-from-the-bunker Zoom interactions:

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Canon RF 800/11 lens for air shows

November 17, 2021November 19, 2021 by philg

Stuart, Florida has a small annual air show that proved to be a good opportunity to test the new Canon mirrorless religion against some of America’s greatest aerobatic pilots and military hardware that awes everyone except our enemies. I brought a Canon R5 body and the 800/11 lens (lightweight inexpensive ($900) lens optimized for long walks in search of birds) to the event, setting up at Atlantic Aviation’s barbecue on the south side of the field, which is where you might be if you flew into the event. Most of the spectators are on the north side of the field and therefore would have had the sun in the background of many images.

Perhaps partly due to the fact that we were usually a little farther from the planes than the main crowd, magnification was about right for a lot of the solo planes. A longer lens would not have been welcome as it was already tough to find moving aircraft in the sky with the lens after first locating them with the unaided eyes. A 600mm lens (on a full-frame camera) is probably better if you’re in a more standard position and then a zoom lens covering 200-400mm for formations and big aircraft (e.g., Boeing 737 and larger).

All of the pictures had the wrong timestamp. A $4,000 camera with WiFi and Bluetooth cannot set its own clock, time zone, or Daylight Savings Time status, unlike the $29+ that we’re accustomed to purchasing for our houses and pockets. (Every photo off by one hour because I hadn’t gone deep into the menus to turn off DST)

Battery life on the R5 was just about perfect for this project, which resulted in 911 pictures and a couple of minutes of video. The battery was at 30 percent at the end of the 5-hour project.

I’m a raw beginner with this body, so my configuration was very simple: servo autofocus (defaults on the zones and other modes), high-speed drive (8 frames/second; not the 12 fps “H+” mode); shutter-priority autoexposure (the lens is at a fixed f/11, so the camera will adjust ISO based on the scene brightness) at 1/1600th to 1/2500th depending on the aircraft speed. No monopod or tripod (i.e., handheld and rely on in-body and in-lens image stabilization). Some of the images below are cropped, but not are post-processed for exposure or in any other way besides downsizing to 4k resolution (3,840 pixels wide) in the remnants of Google Picasa.

So that you don’t give up on this post, a successful slightly cropped F-16 image, the demo team (pilot: Garret Schmitz) showing the taxpayers a thrust-to-weight greater than 1:

Some jumpers who wouldn’t have registered on a shorter lens:

A heritage formation (F-22, P-51 Mustangs, F-16) that fit:

The AeroShell Aerobatic Team (showing just how loud the AT-6 can be):

The last image is uncropped and included to demonstrate how well the EOS R5 does with exposure in a tough situation (white clouds surrounding the subject plus a lot of white on the subject itself; Black Subjects Matter and white subjects might matter to some, but cameras work best when the scene is 18 percent grey).

A little Decathlon that would have gotten lost with a shorter lens:

Max is mad, but not as mad as if he’d had to carry a 14 lb. lens that came in its own suitcase:

An appropriate magnification for the A-10:

If you enjoyed our video regarding the F-22 flight controls and/or you simply love being a taxpayer ($350 million per F-22?):

Big lens+Big airplane (C-17) do not mix well:

On the other hand, the magnification was perfect for the aerobatic Bo 105:

Here’s an example of where a 600mm lens would have made life easier:

But, on the other hand, shouldn’t one expect to throw out 95 percent of images taken of subjects moving at 500+ mph?

The Shockwave Jet truck racing Rob Holland (lens too long at the same time that our position was too far away):

Matt Younkin showing off in a Beech 18:

Department of It Seemed Like a Good Idea at the Time:

Since Thanksgiving is coming up, some things to be thankful for… (we can enjoy looking at the moon; we’re not a helicopter’s external load)

Does the lens make sense for air shows? I think so! If you’re not covering the air show professionally you don’t need to get a great picture of every aircraft. This lens will give you some interesting pictures that few non-professionals are likely to get. The EOS R5 is a champ when it comes to autofocus!

the USAF Thunderbirds (2018 images of practice before an event in Maskachusetts, Canon 200-400L with 1.4X teleconverter for many images)
some other snapshots (from the 2018 Maskachusetts air show)
Oshkosh Air Show Highlights (just a text discussion; I wasn’t strong enough to schlep my huge lenses and we didn’t have space/weight in the airplane)

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Enterprise that gets paid for abortions takes action to promote teenage pregnancy

November 17, 2021November 8, 2021 by philg

“Condom rollout in all Vermont middle and high schools complete” (NBC):

This school year, all Vermont students in grades 7 through 12 gained access to free condoms in school.
Condom supplies come from planned parenthood of northern New England and are free of charge for schools.

Planned Parenthood’s revenue increases if the number of abortions increases and condoms in schools lead to additional pregnancies (see academic study below). A classic cui bono example?

See “Fighting AIDS, Changing Teen Pregnancy? The Incidental Fertility Effects of School Condom Distribution Programs” (full text). The same paper on PubMed: “We find that access to condoms in schools increases teen fertility by about 12 percent.” (the authors looked at births rather than abortions since the statistic is easier to gather than the number of abortions, but since it is difficult for a pregnant person to give birth without first being pregnant, it seems safe to assume that free condoms in increase the pregnancy rate and, therefore, the demand for abortions by pregnant people).

“Planned Parenthood Defends Bill Cosby: ‘Sexual Assault Is Only 3% Of What He Does'” (Babylon Bee); note that this story has been investigated by Snopes

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What edge does Rivian have in the truck or EV market?

November 16, 2021 by philg

“Rivian Is The Biggest Company With No Revenue In The U.S.” (Jalopnik) provides a little background on what is now the world’s third most valuable vehicle maker (Tesla #1, Toyota #2, Rivian #3, just ahead of VW).

Readers: Please educate me! What does Rivian know how to do that makes it worth huge $$ despite zero revenue? Wikipedia doesn’t describe any innovations other than maybe putting in four motors (but so what? A C8 Corvette has only one motor and it gets down the road and around corners).

It can’t be battery chemistry because the company buys batteries from Samsung (InsideEVs).

It can’t be that nobody else can make an electric pickup truck because the Ford F-150 Lightning will be here soon.

It can’t be that nobody else can make electric commercial vehicles because Mercedes promises the eSprinters to Americans starting in 2023 (Car and Driver).

I don’t see how it can be the case that Rivian will flood the market before the legacy companies, the way that Tesla has remarkably done, because Rivian is only just struggling to get its first vehicles out to consumers. If things go perfect, Rivian will deliver 40,000 units in its first year (source). Ford sells nearly 1 million F-150s per year.

An electric pickup enthusiast will have to wait his/her/zir/their turn for either a Rivian or a Ford. Why wouldn’t the typical buyer prefer to order a Ford? The price for Ford’s electric truck is lower than Rivian’s price and the reviews of the Ford are positive (example).

Ford is an investor in Rivian, so presumably there is a rational answer to why Rivian is worth a lot (since Ford knows the industry!). But what is that answer?

(Investors take note: I thought and wrote pretty much all of the above about Tesla when the company was young. I think it is safe to say that I have been proven wrong! But on the third hand Tesla didn’t arrive on the scene at the precise moment that the legacy car makers were going all-in on electric vehicles while Rivian is arriving after Ford already demoed the electric F-150.)

vs.

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America’s best-educated folks do COVID-19 risk management

November 16, 2021November 5, 2021 by philg

“I’m A Middle-Aged Woman Who Is Considering Hiring A Male Escort” (HuffPost):

“If I can hire a massage therapist to help relieve my back pain … and a mechanic to service my car, I should be able to legally hire a man to have sex with me.”

Who’s the author? “Patricia Thornton is a psychologist, mom, dancer and writer. She lives and works in New York City.” In other words, someone with an elite education (vaguely scientific?) living in an city packed with elites.

Here’s the part of the article that fascinates me:

in October 2020 after not having sex in almost a year due to the pandemic

#AbundanceOfCaution and #FollowTheScience. Avoid sex with mild-mannered accountants because, despite their low comparative risk, it is still possible that they could have asymptomatic COVID-19. But is that level of risk-aversion consistent with wanting, right now, to hire a prostitute (regardless of the prostitute’s current gender ID)? Prostitutes are not known for a low level of infectious disease. Vaccine+sex with prostitute is not the most obvious strategy for avoiding COVID-19.

Where New York Times readers don’t want to follow Europe: Legalized prostitution

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Brexit fallout: Royal Dutch Shell moves its headquarters to London

November 15, 2021November 15, 2021 by philg

We were informed that Brexit (January 31, 2020) would cause multinationals to move their headquarters to the EU. This week we learn, however, “Royal Dutch Shell has announced a plan to move its headquarters to the UK as part of proposals to simplify the company’s structure” (BBC):

The oil giant will ask shareholders to vote on shifting its tax residence from the Netherlands to the UK.
Shell’s chief executive, Ben van Beurden, will relocate to the UK.
The company’s chief financial officer, Jessica Uhl, will also move, alongside seven other senior employees.
Business and Energy Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng welcomed Shell’s announcement, tweeting that it was “a clear vote of confidence in the British economy”.
The Dutch government, however, said it was “unpleasantly surprised” by Shell’s proposal.
Stef Blok, economic affairs and climate minister, said: “We are in a dialogue with the management of Shell over the consequences of this plan for jobs, crucial investment decisions and sustainability.”
Shell has been incorporated in the UK and had a Dutch tax residence – as well as the dual share structure – since 2005.
The changes also mean the company will drop “Royal Dutch” from its title and be renamed Shell. This element dates back to 1890 when the Royal Dutch Petroleum Company was formed. That company merged with the UK’s Shell Transport and Trading Company in 1907.
“Carrying the Royal designation has been a source of immense pride and honour for Shell for more than 130 years,” Shell said.
Shares in Shell rose by nearly 2% on Monday morning.

How will the Dutch enjoy their new freedom from sharing a country with the top climate destroyers in the Shell executive suite? “Netherlands imposes lockdown measures as Covid cases hit new high” (Guardian, 11/12/2021):

The Netherlands will become the first western European country to impose a partial lockdown since the summer, introducing strict new measures from Saturday in the face of record numbers of new Covid-19 infections.
Gatherings at home would be limited to a maximum of four guests, all amateur and professional sporting events must be held behind closed doors, and home working was advised except in “absolutely unavoidable” circumstances, Rutte said.
“The virus is everywhere and needs to combated everywhere. I want every Dutch citizen to be asking, can I do more? Can I do better? We had hoped with the vaccines we wouldn’t have to do this, but we see the same situation all across Europe.”

Charlie is everywhere and this is his Tet Offensive. But if we put all of our resources into defense, the war is eminently winnable.

(I asked a Dutch friend about these situations. On the Shell move, in his view, it was as simple as cutting the corporation’s tax bill. Except for in Germany, which refuses to bend the rules for the politically connected, Europe is much like the U.S. in which states compete by offering special deals for the biggest companies and, in this case, Boris Johnson was offering Shell a better deal. On COVID, my friend said that the current outbreak is primarily due to immigrants in the Netherlands who were, in his view, both more likely to be infected with and less likely to be vaccinated against COVID-19. His perspective is confirmed to some extent by “What is the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on immigrants and their children?” (OECD, October 2020), in which immigrants are roughly twice as likely to show up as a “confirmed case” (meaning they actually accessed the health care system and got a test) compared to the native-born. The government had previously reduced the number of hospital rooms per capita in the Netherlands as a cost-savings measure and if the hospitals now fill up it will discredit the government’s competence. World Bank data show that the number of beds per capita in the Netherlands is down by almost half since 1990, only partly due to population growth via immigration; the U.S. also has a reduced capacity per capita since 1990 (population growth from 250 million to 333 million combined with insufficient wealth to build new hospitals can explain much of this).)

In other European news, it looks like they’re getting closer to the proposal put forward here of rounding up the unvaccinated and placing them in Protection Camps. “Austria to impose Covid lockdown for the unvaccinated age 12 and older” (CNN):

Under the measures announced on Sunday, the unvaccinated are ordered to stay home except for a few limited reasons; the rules will be policed by officers carrying out spot checks on those who are out.
The lockdown plan which was agreed in September called for unvaccinated Austrians to face a stay-at-home order once 30% of intensive-care beds are occupied by Covid-19 patients. Unvaccinated people are already excluded from entertainment venues, restaurants, hairdressers and other parts of public life in Austria.
In neighboring Germany, ministers have ramped up their rhetoric towards those who are not inoculated. Its capital Berlin announced on Wednesday it will ban people who are not vaccinated from indoor dining, bars, gyms, hairdressers and cinemas from next week.

Now wouldn’t it be simpler if everyone had an RFID chip instead of relying on the police to “spot check” folks’ papers?

Returning to the main theme… gasoline was about $3.30 per gallon at the Shell station in Indiantown, Florida (when does that name get changed?) this weekend. And we used that gasoline to go to the Stuart Air Show where we saw the AeroShell Aerobatic Team (Canon R5 body and cheap/light 800/11 lens):

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Working January 6 into every conversation

November 15, 2021November 15, 2021 by philg

One way to come across as more elite, like the folks who own and edit the New York Times, is to work January 6 into every conversation. Top of front page of NYT, 11/8, for example, a “breaking” story:

I’ve been practicing this. A colleague on a project asked me to do something urgently. My response:

I will try later. Dealing with an insurrection by the 6- and 8-year-olds that makes Jan 6 look like a church picnic.

How else can January 6 be used in everyday conversations? Here are some ideas…

In a store:

Wow! The prices are up 20 percent compared to when I was here during the January 6 insurrection.

(notice how this communicates to the listener that the speaker is not a Deplorable who traveled to Washington, D.C. on January 6; don’t use this if you’re in a store in Washington, D.C.!)

If someone expresses unhappiness at being ordered by Professor Dr. Joe Biden, M.D., Ph.D. to get vaccinated/boosted by January 4 with the latest concoctions of the pharma industry:

If you get your last shot on January 4, you’ll have January 6 as a paid day off for vaccine recovery and poignant reflection on the one-year anniversary of the day that the insurrectionists nearly toppled the U.S. government

If your golden retriever is pulling on the leash and refusing to abandon a tree: