Never say never: Maskachusetts back in masks

by philg

Back in April, when we told friends and neighbors in Massachusetts about the decision to follow the reverse underground railroad to freedom (see Relocation to Florida for a family with school-age children), they scoffed at the idea that Florida was a more reliable source of Freedom of Assembly, freedom for children to exercise without masks, in-person education, etc. COVID-19 was finished, vanquished by wise leadership and vaccines. They confidently predicated that, after the 15-month state of emergency officially ended on June 15, 2021, the residents of Massachusetts would never again be ordered to wear masks, to refrain from gathering, to keep children at home, etc.

From our former town:

Effective on 12:01 a.m. August 20, 2021, face coverings are required for all individuals aged two years
and above in all indoor public spaces, or private spaces open to the public…

(the schools, of course, decided months ago that children would be ordered to wear masks, even those children whose parents elect to experiment on them with an emergency authorized vaccine dosage calibrated for adults; this may be moot for urban schools, which closed down for nearly a year during the 2020-2021 coronapanic)

It is currently illegal to be indoors in Provincetown without a mask: “Provincetown Approves Indoor Mask Mandate To Stem Spread” (a bandana is okay when meeting new friends from Grindr!). The situation is similar out across the water: “Three Martha’s Vineyard towns issue mask mandate” (Boston Herald, August 17). How about staying home in the suburbs? Belmont went back into masks on August 9.

Keep in mind that the typical peak period for respiratory viruses in New England is still 3-6 months in the future. The above are the restrictions for the ordinarily flu/cold-free summer (and last summer was more or less COVID-free as well).

The “curve,” according to The Google:

The Leaderboard of the #Science-following Righteous:

(Florida, of course, has a much uglier curve right now, in what seems to be a pattern going forward of high COVID during the peak summer months. But the fact that the government hasn’t caved in to Karens’ demands for muscular orders and restrictions is confidence-inspiring. Unlike most other states, Florida does not pretend that governors’ orders and bandanas are a magic solution for preventing viruses from killing humans. The current COVID-19 wave in Florida is a good stress test for the residents’ and government’s commitment to children, education, freedom, and the Constitution.)

For lockdown state children, from Disney+, Goofy in How to Stay At Home, Episode 1 of which is “How to Wear a Mask”:

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Elizabeth Warren’s plane at Oshkosh

by philg

Parked along the main drag at EAA AirVenture (“Oshkosh”) was a homebuilt airplane with Native American portraits airbrushed on the vertical stabilizer:

As we walked by on Day 1 of the event, I said to the kids, “that must be Elizabeth Warren’s plane.” On every subsequent day, we took the 15-passenger hotel shuttle van and, of course, it was always jammed. We would drive by this airplane once in the morning and once in the evening. Every time, our 5-year-old would shout out “Elizabeth Warren’s plane!” for all of the other hotel guests to hear.

(Note the stats on the plane. 2,700 hours to build over 5 years and 3 months. That’s perseverance!)

Coincidentally, at almost the exact moment that our 5-year-old was announcing the Senator’s airplane, I received a group chat message/photo from a friend who is taking his family around the National Parks: “I found Elizabeth Warren’s relatives.”

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Where does former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani go?

by philg

“Russia says Afghan president fled with cars and helicopter full of cash – RIA” (Reuters):

Russia’s embassy in Kabul said on Monday that Afghan President Ashraf Ghani had fled the country with four cars and a helicopter full of cash and had to leave some money behind as it would not all fit in, the RIA news agency reported.

“As for the collapse of the (outgoing) regime, it is most eloquently characterised by the way Ghani fled Afghanistan,” Nikita Ishchenko, a spokesman for the Russian embassy in Kabul, was quoted as saying by RIA.

“Four cars were full of money, they tried to stuff another part of the money into a helicopter, but not all of it fit. And some of the money was left lying on the tarmac,” he was quoted as saying.

Where does Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai go to spend this cash? (And should Andrew Cuomo join him? Presumably any place that welcomes Ghani isn’t going to be too concerned about the things Cuomo is accused of.)

My guess: Belarus. The EU and the US already hate the government of Belarus. Immigrants enrich us culturally and economically, and no human being is illegal, but it is “warfare” when Belarus allows low-skill migrants from Iraq into the EU (see “Latvia and Lithuania act to counter migrants crossing Belarus border” (Guardian))

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Nostalgia for the old neighborhood

by philg

Discovered in the entryway of our old condo building in Cambridge:

I.e., one of the local righteous had taken the trouble to write “Please do not lock bike on tree — damages the bark” and then the additional trouble to place the note in a Ziploc bag (or maybe the recipient decided to preserve the note via Ziploc?).

I do not expect anyone in Florida to go to these lengths!

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Annals of Government Computer Programming

by philg

On August 4, 2021, the Web site for renewing a Global Entry card tells me that I can’t start the renewal process until September 28, 2020:

One for the textbook chapters on the merits of the IF statement…

The site did not get better. On nearly every page, before I started answering questions, I would be greeted with a banner at the top:

The plus side of coronapanic:

And the renewal might involve a “remote virtual interview”.

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What do we think of the American defeat in Afghanistan?

by philg

Our puppet government has folded and we now have to recognize that we achieved nothing after spending 20 years, 100,000+ Afghan lives, 3,000 American and European lives, and unknown $trillions (the spending will continue as U.S. soldiers sign up for disability benefits and Afghans immigrate to the U.S. and sign up for multiple generations of means-tested public housing, Medicaid, food stamps, etc.).

What will change going forward? Will we still be just as enthusiastic about wars we can’t win?

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Karenhood in Massachusetts measured quantitatively

by philg

After 40+ years of sitting at a computer and typing, my back is in no shape for packing and moving to the Florida Free State. A friend’s 16-year-old soccer star and some of his teammates have been essential to our sorting/discarding/packing process. The muscle turned out to have a quantitative measurement of Karenhood in Massachusetts. Neighbors in his suburban town called the police on 19 separate occasions after observing the high school soccer team practicing (outdoors) without strict mask discipline. (There were more than 19 individual calls to the police. In fact, during one practice 5 different Mask Samaritans called the police.)

The most dramatic COVID-19 team response was five town officials converging on the soccer field. Two coaches, two people from the public health department, and a police officer.

Very loosely related, from Coronavirus Rescue Team (May 13, 2020):

(I told the above story to a woman who lives in Concord, Maskachusetts, center of the BLM movement, at least to judge by the prevalence of lawn signs. “I was walking with my sister in a wide-open field with nobody around,” she said. “A car stopped and the driver yelled at us for not wearing masks.”)

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Where did India end up in the COVID Olympics?

by philg

Four months ago, India was the subject of media attention due to a wave of coronavirus infection. Nearly all of the journalists whipped up hysteria by citing absolute numbers of infections and/or deaths in India, not adjusting for the population size. From Coronaplague in India proves Dr. Jeff Goldblum’s theories? (April 14):

In other words, India has suffered more from COVID-19 than a country in which 100 percent of the population died of COVID-19, just as long as that country had only 13 million people.

How bad are things in what TIME and the Guardian say is the worst-plagued country on Earth? The country has suffered 125 COVID-19-tagged deaths per million inhabitants (ranking). That compares to 2,530 per million here in Massachusetts (states ranked; note that this is per 100,000 so multiply by 10). Maybe they will be getting worse, though. If things get 20X as bad as they’ve been in India, the situation will be about as bad as it is right now in Massachusetts.

Readers: What’s your best guess as to how events unfold in India? My guess is based on regression to the mean. India was an outlier (125 deaths per million). When the dust settles, India will be somewhere in the middle (right now the worldwide average is about 375 deaths per million; 3 million deaths in a population of 8 billion). Perhaps we’d have to adjust for the fact that the median age in India is roughly 27, slightly younger than the world median (around 30).

It has been four months. We know that the science is settled. Is it fair to say that “the dust has settled” right now in India? (i.e., that they’re at least between waves of coronavirus infection) If so, how accurate was my prediction of “slightly less than the worldwide average because of India’s slightly younger-than-average population”? We can use Statista’s COVID-19 deaths by country (the most thoroughly masked and shut nations at the top, #BecauseScience) as an authoritative source for India’s death rate (about 314/million). We can take the total deaths on the WHO dashboard (4.33 million) and divide by the number on the Census Bureau’s population clock (7.78 billion) to get the worldwide death rate: 556/million. In other words, after all of the media hysteria it turns out that India has a lower death rate from/with COVID-19 than the world average. What if we compare to the U.S. states? Maskachusetts is at 2,630 per million (a lot of U.S. stats are per 100,000 so we need to multiply by 10), a rate that is 8X higher than India’s.

Let’s also look at predictions from readers…

disevad, who lives in India, said “My intuition is that its going to subside in next 3 weeks or so”.

[i.e., that the peak of “cases” would be roughly May 6, 2021. When was the peak? Our World In Data says… May 6, 2021 (414,118 cases). How about deaths? The peak was around May 17; see Google data below]

RS said, “I wonder if after the panic dies down and wearing masks continues to be something that people in CA and MA do for the rest of their lives it will take on a similar flavor. Wearing a mask during flu season (which will be renamed Corona season as you note) is a sign that they are making healthy choices, and a much easier choice than losing the 20-30 pounds that they gained during lockdown.” To see if this prediction is correct we have to wait until the winter to see if the masks sprout, but we can check right now to see if our neighbors are still fat.

Viking said, “By the time it is obvious India is past the peak, say daily deaths are down to 650/day, I expect 200 to 300 cumulative deaths per million. So 8 to 12% of Maskachusetts rate.” [The above numbers work out to 12%!]

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Reverse underground railroad journey complete

by philg

Our journey on the modern underground railroad (Maskachusetts to the Florida Free State) is complete as of yesterday!

Billboards on I-95 were interesting. Excluding those for travel-related services (hotels, restaurants, etc.), approximately 1/3rd were from employers begging people to work (curiously, however, the begging stopped at the Florida border; maybe people in Florida are more eager to work? Or the economy in Florida is not as strong as in NC, SC, GA?). The remaining billboards were dominated by personal injury and divorce litigators and by the healthcare industry. I couldn’t get any photos because it was just me and Mindy the Crippler in the Honda Odyssey (jammed with all the stuff that we forgot to pack or that the movers forgot to load).

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How can city vaccination requirements be enforced without RFID chips in residents’ necks?

by philg

Cities are casting out heretics (i.e., those who haven’t accepted a non-FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine). See “San Francisco to require vaccine proof at indoor venues” (AP):

Worried that the highly contagious delta variant of the coronavirus could derail San Francisco’s economic rebound, Mayor London Breed announced Thursday that the city will require proof of full vaccination at indoor restaurants, bars, gyms and entertainment venues to help keep businesses open.

“This is to protect kids, is to protect those who can’t get vaccinated, is to make sure that we don’t go backwards, is to make sure that I never have to get up in front of you and say, ‘I’m sorry, I know we just reopened and now the city is closed again because we are seeing too many people die,’ ” Breed said.

The mandate will be more stringent than the one announced by New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio last week. San Francisco will require proof of full COVID-19 vaccination for all customers and staff, while New York mandated proof of at least one dose for indoor activities.

Loyal readers will recall that, earlier in coronapanic, I advocated for RFID chips in the necks of anyone who lives in or visits the U.S. This would enable quarantine-enforcement and contact-tracing via door frame scanners. See RFID chips in the necks of college students and #Science proves that I was right (about the need for RFID chips in humans for COVID-19 surveillance), for example. Combined with a central health care database, as in the UK or Israel, it would be possible to confine heretics and infidels to their homes via simple computer programming.

The government has had 1.5 years to plan, but apparently that wasn’t sufficient to develop a durable proof of vaccination card that would fit in a wallet. And, in any case, if an event has thousands of people coming through the doors, how would checking all of these cards be practical? Consider that someone who got injected in a foreign country might be coming through and will be presenting a card in a language that the people at the door can’t read. Also, shouldn’t those checking for heretics be sure to match the name of the vaccination record and the name on a photo ID? How does that work given that (1) IDs are not required for vaccination, and (2) the undocumented may not have ID documents, but are still entitled to full participation in U.S. civic life.

Separately, woudn’t it be fun to build the door scanner that would check the RFID chip, look up vaccine status in the national database, and light up a huge red blinking “HERETIC” sign while sounding submarine movie buzzers and alarms?

[The above should not be read as an opinion on the vaccine requirement policies. I mean only to question how the requirements can be enforced, as a practical matter, without automation and, therefore, some quick way to scan a human and determine vaccine status.]

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  • On the subject of adult politicians, such as Mayor Breed, saying that they’re acting to protect children… “Deaths from COVID ‘incredibly rare’ among children” (Nature, July 2021): A comprehensive analysis of hospital admissions and reported deaths across England suggests that COVID-19 carries a lower risk of dying or requiring intensive care among children and young people than was previously thought. In a series of preprints published on medRxiv, a team of researchers picked through all hospital admissions and deaths reported for people younger than 18 in England. The studies found that COVID-19 caused 25 deaths in that age group between March 2020 and February 2021. About half of those deaths were in individuals with an underlying complex disability with high health-care needs, such as tube feeding or assistance with breathing. [For comparison, about 50 children, 16 and under, die annually from traffic accidents in the UK (source) because the nation has not adopted my speed limit idea.]
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