Coronavirus kills the vaccinated in the UK, but not in the U.S.

U.S., July 5:

Anthony Fauci on Sunday said more than 99 percent of the people who died from COVID-19 in June were not vaccinated, calling the loss of life “avoidable and preventable.”

“If you look at the number of deaths, about 99.2 percent of them are unvaccinated. About 0.8 percent are vaccinated. No vaccine is perfect. But when you talk about the avoidability of hospitalization and death, Chuck, it’s really sad and tragic that most all of these are avoidable and preventable,” Fauci told host Chuck Todd on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

(Mx. Fauci does not merit the “Dr.” title to join Dr. Jill Biden?)

Situation across the pond, July 2 (WSJ):

Data from Public Health England show that there were 117 deaths among 92,000 Delta cases logged through June 21. Fifty of those—46%—had received two shots of vaccine.

So… 46 percent of the deaths from the Delta variant (soon to be the only form of coronavirus that anyone has, at least until the “Delta Delta Delta” variant is available) are among the fully vaccinated in the U.K. The corresponding number in the U.S.? Around 1 percent.

You might say “Of course this makes sense. The U.K. has a higher vaccination rate than the U.S. If 100 percent of people in the U.K. were vaccinated, 100 percent of COVID-19 deaths would be among the vaccinated.” Yet the vaccination rates are not that different….

(Since we just celebrated July 4th, consider that if we hadn’t traitorously rebelled, we would still be part of the U.K. and would therefore be enjoying a far superior COVID-19 prevention strategy (more lockdowns (exceptions for the elite), more vaccines!). We would also have been spared four years of Donald Trump’s maladministration, racism, anti-LGBTQIA+ policies, etc.)

How do we explain the fact that the vaccines work so much better at preventing death in the U.S. compared to in the U.K.? These are more or less the same vaccines that are authorized for emergency use (not “approved”) here. The U.K. has our three plus Oxford/AstraZeneca (NHS).

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Medical School 2020, Year 3, Week 22

Week 4 of Internal Medicine clerkship, same team. Monday is call day. Our team is responsible for divvying up admissions to the hospitalist service. Our team has a low census (only about 6) after all the discharges so we’ll admit 6 patients today. I take the first admission. A 93-year-old female with Alzheimer’s and vascular dementia and COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) presenting via EMS (ambulance from the nursing home) for worsening shortness of breath. Typically, the medical student is tasked scouring through the 40-page stack of medical records sent from the nursing home for prescription medications. Fortunately, her three children, one granddaughter, and a great granddaughter are present to give a full history of her health. Her daughter: “She never smoked a cigarette in her life.She got COPD from second-hand smoke; her husband was the chain smoker.” Tiffany: “Now you see the challenge with the elderly. If they don’t live near family, it can be a crisis. Her past medical history is an enigma. We don’t know her goals of care, or if she already has a living will.” 

Her wheezing is audible from the hallway, but she is oxygenating well on 2 liters NC (2 liters oxygen delivered via nasal cannula prongs). We step out into the hall and explain her GOLD Stage 4 COPD (most severe) to her family members. She arrived in actual (as opposed to coding gimmick) respiratory failure. She has a severe acute respiratory acidosis with chronic metabolic compensation shown by ABG (arterial blood gas sampling). We avoid intubation by giving back-to-back DuoNeb nebulizer treatments until IV methylprednisolone (steroid, similar to cortisol) kicks in (about 30 minutes). We order a BiPAP (bilevel positive airway pressure) machine from the resident lounge. Briana emphasizes as we wait for the elevator, “BIPAP is never used unless there is a foreseeable improvement from a specific intervention — when in doubt, intubate. It is the safest intervention.”

We head up to the resident lounge to type H&P into Epic. Two hours later, we meet the attending, Formal Frank, in the ED to present our admissions. Sylvester describes a newly diagnosed lung cancer patient. Diane presents an undifferentiated pericardial effusion (fluid around the heart). In the room with my patient, the attending notes her inability to speak more than two words and that she is using accessory muscles (e.g., between ribs or in the neck) to breathe.

Formal Frank asks the granddaughter, “What is her baseline?” A great-granddaughter responds, “This isn’t her, she’s a stubborn old bat, but she’s as sharp as a whip. She remembers small details from our childhood. Right now she doesn’t even know who I am.” 

Formal Frank asks us, “You ordered BIPAP, but is she using BIPAP?” We stare at each other. “Just because you put something in the computer doesn’t mean it happens. Nurses think of our orders more like recommendations.” He had guessed right. Due to a combination of our patient improving and her dementia, the respiratory therapist had apparently given up after setting up the ($2000 billed to Medicare) machine. 

As far as I could tell, the 45-year-old granddaughter stayed in the room for the entire five-night stay. She worked from her laptop and phone and slept in the recliner chair. Every time a nurse came in, she would ask what the next step would be. She related her concerns about the nursing home. “Her medications are ordered PRN [as needed]. That becomes an excuse for them not to give them,” says the granddaughter. “Their nurses are lazy, not like the ones you have here.” I work with the granddaughter on an updated list of medications, including an inhaled steroid for the GOLD stage 4 COPD.

My next admission is a 22-year-old patient with two-day history chest pain. A CT angiogram performed in the ED showed a pulmonary embolism. She also has numerous skin lesions. She has clear moon facies (swollen “moon face”) from steroids used for immune system suppression since age 9, when she received her first kidney transplant.

We get a deeper medical history from the mother, although she did not know the cause of the initial kidney failure. Either the kidney biopsy that would be standard today was never done or the mom can’t remember the result (or was never told). After all of the billions of dollars spent on electronic medical records, we’re forced to rely on the memory of laypeople for a continuous history of anyone who has been seen at multiple institutions.

We restart the patient’s immunosuppressive medications and start her on a heparin infusion for therapeutic anticoagulation.

I present the patient bedside to Formal Frank and Boss Bianca. The patient doesn’t have any questions, and we go into the hall to discuss. Formal Frank: “This is an exciting case! Think of everything this could be. What could cause a PE?” Sylvester, Diane, and I can’t come up with anything other than a run-of-the-mill PE from a DVT. Bianca: “Dig Deeper! People on immunosuppression are at a 100 times risk of developing cancer. She could have a nephrotic syndrome that causes you to be hypercoagulable. People with kidney transplants are at increased risk of glomerulonephritis. She’s also on a fibrate, maybe she has a heart attack.” (We don’t get to explore these issues, unfortunately. The patient’s shortness of breath resolves and she is discharged after two days to resume her job at Subway and see her outpatient specialists.)

On Thursday, Boss Bianca corrals the three of us after rounds. We head to the supply room, tucked away in the labyrinthine basement, to get several punch biopsies. “I have a surprise for you.” A patient admitted overnight to a different team may have syphilis. The 26-year-old relapsed on meth two weeks ago after his girlfriend left him. He has had several ulcers, largest in diameter about 4 cm and 1 cm deep, pop up on his body, including on his forehead, elbow, wrist, and back. “Look at me. I can’t go to work or anything.” We each choose a location and perform a punch biopsy. Later, I checked his chart and the syphilis tests came back negative. A dermatology consult did not result in a definitive diagnosis, but noted the possibility of an immune reaction to meth, possibly a necrotizing vasculitis?.

[Editor: Parents of couch-bound Xbox-playing youth nationwide should use this guy as an example. Even a meth head had a girlfriend and was passionate about going to work.]

Bianca and I run upstairs for a code blue for a 80-year-old DNR (“Do Not Resuscitate”) who is scheduled for transcatheter aortic valve replacement on Friday. He went asystole (flatline EKG). Boss Bianca instructs a nurse to get basic labs, a 12-lead EKG, and to get her the family’s phone number. “DNR does not mean do nothing. Check glucose, hypoxia, treatment arrhythmias.” She taps my shoulder to look at his Cheyne-Stokes breathing pattern. He would take 4-5 deep breaths, then stop breathing for several seconds. Bianca speaks to the daughter and explains the situation that he is DNR, and therefore no further interventions are indicated. The family understands, and says that they knew this was likely and that the valve replacement was extremely risky. Bianca instructs Tiffany to call the surgeon and tell her that the patient is dead.

[Editor: Medicare would have paid over $60,000 for the valve replacement, had the patient survived long enough to receive it.]

Friday is the medical students’ “24-hour” shift, from 6:00 am until morning rounds on Saturday (i.e., about 9:00 am). We work with our normal day team with rounds, followed by notes in the resident lounge. We attend a few procedures on our patients, e.g., endoscopy for GI bleeds, and then join the night team at 6:00 pm.

The chief resident functions essentially as an attending. She was asked to stay for an additional “chief” year following PGY3. She and I head to the med/surg floor to perform paracentesis (“tapping the belly”) on two patients with alcoholic cirrhosis.

[Editor: The good news that I learned at Harvard Medical School in 2019 is that these patients are not “alcoholics.” At worst, they are suffering from “alcohol use disorder.”]

I use an ultrasound to locate a pocket of fluid on a 35-year-old alcoholic cirrhosis patient with a belly swollen from ascites. She is animated, intelligent, and sober following two days of detox. It is tough to imagine that she is on disability and suffering from end-stage liver disease. I locate a pocket that is clear of bowel and mark it with a pen. My chief then preps and taps the belly. We get 4 liters, four test tubes of which we send to the lab for albumin ascites gradient (SAAG) to determine if there is portal hypertension or an inflammatory process. 

The chief lets me do the next one, on a 65-year-old former alcoholic. After sticking a needle into the belly, advancing the catheter, and retracting the needle. The patient feels better after 2 liters, but we keep going until we’ve extracted 10(!). We increase his IV fluids to compensate for the expected dehydration.

We are beginning to fade at 1:30 am, fighting over who will get stuck with the next patient rather than who will get the privilege of taking the next one. The chief sends us home at 3:00 am. Sylvester and Diane both sleep at the hospital in the medical student call room. I decide to go home for 2 hours before returning for Saturday morning rounds at 7:00 am. I finished my notes before heading home so I leave after rounds and sleep.

We get the rest of the weekend off. 

Jane had an exciting week on inpatient gynecology. A 65-year-old patient presented with stage 4 cervical cancer and necrotic tissue in the vagina. She’d been having regular checkups with a nurse-practitioner who ordered labs and assumed that the patient was seeing a Ob-Gyn and getting standard-of-care Pap smears. The doctors were outraged that this had been missed and now this otherwise healthy patient was sentenced to death.

[Editor: Although this patient plainly would have benefitted from screening tests, there is debate about whether the U.S. standard of care is the right one. See “Harms Of Cervical Cancer Screening In The United States And The Netherlands” (Habbema, et al. International Journal of Cancer 2017, 140:5): “Our main finding is that harms occur much more frequently in US than in NL, while the levels of incidence and mortality have been quite comparable between the two countries…” (the Netherlands screens at only about half the rate of the U.S. and only for women 31-60)]

Jane is exhausted and sore when she returns home. She spent five hours total driving the uterus with a uterine manipulator. “I was pushing so hard, my feet were slipping, but they kept saying, ‘Harder. Harder. Lift the uterus.’ Afterwards my hands were shaking. I could barely squeeze.” She continued, “And of course they then asked me to suture. They thought I was really nervous, but actually I was having trouble gripping the instruments.”

Statistics for the week… Study: 6 hours. Sleep: 5 hours/night; Fun: none.

The rest of the book: http://fifthchance.com/MedicalSchool2020

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Lockdown advocates now object to restrictions on open-water swimming

Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker has decided to protect residents against the dangers of open-water swimming. “Swimmers Frustrated By New Ban On ‘Open Water Swimming’ At Walden Pond” (from state-sponsored NPR-affiliate WBUR):

The state’s decision to ban open water swimming at Concord’s iconic Walden Pond is eliciting a quick and irate response from swimmers.

The Department of Conservation and Recreation announced Friday that swimming outside of designated areas at Walden would be prohibited “indefinitely.” In a statement, the agency said the decision was made “in order to simplify and standardize education and enforcement” across all state-regulated bodies of water and to “protect public safety.”

The legislation follows a series of drownings in Massachusetts, including a 19-year-old who drowned Thursday swimming off South Boston’s Castle Island.

An open letter to the state purporting to represent “the open water swimming community of greater Boston” had collected more than 400 names before it was converted to an online petition, where it gathered thousands more. The letter claims the Walden ban “infringes on our reasonable right to access the natural assets of our state,” and proposes instead that open water swimmers should be allowed as long as swimmers use safety devices known as swim buoys.

11,058 of the Massachusetts righteous have signed a petition at change.org seeking relief from this latest governor’s order.

What’s interesting about this? The folks whom I know who signed the petition were enthusiastic lockdown advocates. They cheered when Governor Baker closed the schools “to keep kids safe” from a disease that had never killed a child in Maskachusetts (0 deaths among under-20s in MA through August 11, after which the state withheld deaths-by-age data from the public). Now, however, the Lockdown Karens object to Governor Baker using #Science and his newly unlimited powers to deal with a very real danger (Dr. Jill Biden’s colleagues at the CDC say that roughly 4,000 Americans drown annually.)

An October 2008 aerial photo of Walden Pond. The sandy beach at left is where Governor Baker orders you to swim. The area near the railroad tracks on the right (which went quite close to Thoreau’s cabin back in the old days) is where the open water swimmers used to risk death.

On a separate note, and it may be too soon to wonder this, but why are Americans so interested in the Champlain Towers South collapse, in which roughly 140 lives were lost? We are informed that 600,000 Americans were cut down in their prime by COVID-19. These folks, who had their best years ahead of them, went from the tennis court and soccer pitch to a ventilator in the ICU to the morgue. On June 24, 2021, when the Florida condo collapsed, we are informed that 355 young healthy Americans fell to COVID-19. If COVID-19 kills unpredictably and indiscriminately, like a building collapse does, why would we have time and energy to mourn building collapse victims who are so greatly outnumbered, even on the day of the collapse, by COVID-19 victims?

A January 2021 photo of Normandy Isles and North Beach with Surfside just beyond. The collapsed building, from this perspective, is just behind the first tower to the north of the park (green area along the beach).

(For the record, I personally am sad about the victims of the Champlain Towers South collapse partly because I do not believe that COVID-19 has killed hundreds of thousands of healthy Americans who had a lot of great years to look forward to, whereas I do think that the collapse killed healthy people who could have lived enjoyable active lives for years or decades to come.)

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Medical School 2020, Year 3, Week 21

Monday morning, Terrific Tiffany and I admit a 59-year-old HIV-positive patient (my first) with coronary artery disease for a pre-syncopal (nearly fainting) episode and chest pain. His Hepatitis C and liver cirrhosis suggest a history of drug use. He presented because of the chest pain and running out of his nitroglycerin sublingual tablets. During the interview, he also reports a two-month history of black tarry stools. Fecal occult stool test is positive, his hemoglobin is 6.4 (normal: 13.5-15; worry: 9; transfuse: 7). Tiffany allows me to put in the basic orders for practice: 2 prbc (packed red blood cells), H&H (hematocrit and hemoglobin tests) q6h (every 6 hours), gastrointestinal consult, cardiology consult, troponin q6h, normal saline at 1.5x maintenance, protonix 40 mg iv q12h, and 2 large bore IVs.

If he is not having an acute GI bleed, his hemoglobin should increase approximately 1 Hg for every 300 mL prbc bag. Six hours later, his hemoglobin result is 8 Hg and his chest pain has resolved.

Diane, Sylvester, and I join for the afternoon Esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) study in the endoscopy (“endo”) suite. Under supervision from a GI attending, the GI fellow makes the scope do a U-turn to look backwards at the stomach. He points out GAVE (gastric antral vascular ectasia; dilated blood vessels in the stomach antrum leading to a “watermelon appearance”). We find three arteriovenous malformations (AVMs, dense collection of friable vessels) in the duodenum. “GI attendings love to pimp on this,” notes the fellow. The attending requests a pediatric colonoscopy scope to go further into the small intestine to investigate the jejunum (middle part of the small intestine, typically found empty in autopsies and therefore derived from the Latin for “fasting”). The fellow struggles to advance the longer endoscope, so the attending takes over and explores another 3 feet of bowel.

We find 2 more AVMs, none bleeding. The endoscope has a sprayer for liquid nitrogen and they use this to freeze off the AVMs. Each of us is then allowed to practice driving the scope from the stomach through the pylorus. Sylvester: “Just like a video game.” Afterwards, I ask the GI attending, “Do you really think AVMs were the cause? Can he do anything so this doesn’t happen again.” GI attending: “We do not know what causes AVMs, but there is a clear relationship with aortic stenosis [AS]. If you cure the aortic valve stenosis, the AVMs go away! He doesn’t have significant AS, so he just has to live with them. He’ll have to come in every few months and get a transfusion. More importantly, his multiple comorbidities would not make him a good candidate for aortic valve replacement.” 

During lunch, Boss Bianca goes over the REDUCE (Reduction in the Use of Corticosteroids in Exacerbated COPD; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, typically from smoking) trial with us. Sylvester and I had prepared by reading up on the REDUCE trial… for prostate cancer. Our discussion was delayed 15 minutes so that we could read the correct “REDUCE” study.

REDUCE investigated whether steroid use could be reduced from the standard of care 14-day course of 40 mg of prednisone to a 5-day course without worsening the estimated 33 percent re-exacerbation rate within 180 days of index hospital discharge. Bianca explains, “Before this trial, you would get 20 different answers about duration and indication of steroid use for patients from 20 different doctors. This was a pivotal trial because it allowed evidence to treat quick-responding patients for only 5 days, but you have to treat the patient until they improve. If they are not improving on day 3, by God, you are not going to stop giving them in two days.”

Sylvester, who struggled in our statistics course, tries to impress Bianca. “I am just a sucker for statistics. I loved how they took the stance of the two groups assessing if they were ‘noninferior’ by using hazard ratios.” Bianca stares blankly and continues, “How might our patient population differ from the study population in Switzerland?” Diane brought up one difference: everyone in the study received antibiotics. “We don’t give antibiotics to every COPD exacerbation so this could be a factor.”

Wednesday call day. We have two rapids in the morning. One page was called for bradycardia (heart rate in the 40s). Bianca decides not to initiate any intervention, as the 75-year-old patient, admitted for hip fracture, is asymptomatic. She had received an extra dose of metoprolol due to miscommunication during the medicine reconciliation on admission; she had already taken her AM metoprolol before coming to hospital. (Our attending, Formal Frank: “This is what happens when we put elderly folk on two or three antihypertensives [amlodipine, HCTZ, and metoprolol for our patient] Have you ever heard of the Osler’s sign for pseudohypertension? No one does it anymore for some reason.” He explains how to perform the quick test to evaluate for falsely elevated blood pressure reading from a cuff due to excessively athersclerotic arteries that cannot compress. “We keep adding antihypertensives to the elderly, and our readings don’t go down until they go down. I want you to perform the test on the next elderly patient we have. Remember: Always ask, What did we do to the patient?”)

Rounds continue after the rapid with Sylvester’s 42-year-old obese female admitted two days ago after a pulmonary embolism. She is on oral birth control [OCP] and has well-controlled hypertension. She was initiated on low molecular weight heparin injections and will be transitioned to an oral anticoagulant for at least three months. Formal Frank: “A serious conversation should’ve been had with this woman several years ago. She is obese with hypertension, all risk factors for DVT, and she is still on OCPs. This could have been prevented, now she has to be on anticoagulation for at least three months, which carries its own side effects. Once again, always ask, ‘What did we do to the patient?'”

Do we need a cardiologist or hematologist consult to manage the pulmonary embolism? “I know the guidelines and studies better than most cardiologists do and feel confident in managing this disease. That’s the beauty of internal medicine, you choose what you are interested in, and get consults for things you are not interested in.” Sylvester and I spend ten minutes with our noses almost touching the screen trying to identify the occluded segmental artery on the CT angiogram without looking at the radiologist report. Sylvester: “Ah, we found it. Look at that wedge!”

Diane follows a 38-year-old overweight diabetic mother with depression and a foot ulcer admitted for a foot amputation. Her son has Down Syndrome. She will have fantastic sugar control for 8 months, but then binge for two months on pizza and soda, possibly due to “caretaker burnout.” Her affect is labile: she was extremely cheerful during pre-rounds, but now she is in tears. Formal Frank: “She’s in denial. Wouldn’t you be if you were about to lose half your foot from a small ulcer?” He continues, “If she wants to walk again, she should get a BKA [below the knee amputation] and begin PT immediately. Evidence is quite clear that the best functional outcome is from a BKA. She is unlikely to walk after this partial foot amputation, but the system doesn’t think that far forward. She’ll be back in a year requiring a BKA so what’s the damage besides a few thousand dollars, right?”

I pick up a 58-year-old patient admitted by the night team. He is admitted for acute hypoxic respiratory distress secondary to congestive heart failure (CHF), undiagnosed COPD, and atrial fibrillation with rapid ventricular response (fast heart rate). Coding for acute hypoxic respiratory distress leads to significantly enhanced revenue.

We discuss his prognosis, and if we should order an echo. The patient is on minoxidil, an old antihypertensive that is seldom used (except topically for baldness). He is also not on any CHF medications, e.g., a beta blocker or an ACE (angiotensin-converting enzyme) inhibitor,  that have a survival benefit. Formal Frank asks the team to check the chart for the name of the patient’s outside private cardiologist. “Ah, well I assure you he has had an echo in the last six months. Anything this guy can bill before the end of his patients’ life.” Sure enough, after several hours on the phone we get his outside records faxed showing echos and carotid duplex studies every six months. Although we typically do not make major changes to medications prescribed by outpatient doctors, we discontinue the modafinil and begin beta blocker and ACE inhibitor. 

This patient exemplifies the dangers of overspecialization in healthcare. The patient does not see a general internist. His (mediocre) cardiologist is essentially his primary care doctor. The cardiologist ignores everything except cardiac issues. So there are great images documenting the continued ejection fraction decline, but he is not even on the simplest albuterol inhaler for COPD. Most of the problems likely originate from the patient’s uncontrolled COPD. Over several years this leads to pulmonary hypertension, thereby leading to CHF and atrial fibrillation. We perpetuate the specialization blinds by placing an outpatient consult to pulmonology to manage his COPD rather than a consultation with a general internist. Part of this is due to insurance, Medicaid, and Medicare realities. The specialist can bill far more for the same management that could be provided by an internist, thus reducing internists to a screening function.

The nurses don’t like Sylvester’s patient, admitted for alcohol withdrawal. She and her husband have moved into the hospital. There are suitcases strewn across the room, with clothes on the floor marking a path to the hallway, despite pestering from nurses that these make it harder for them to use the blood cuff, CPAC, and other machines. Security was called after a fight over mealtimes. The patient is medically stable for discharge, but requests the ride home to which she is entitled. The social worker informs us that there are no more “Medicaid taxis” available for the afternoon. Boss Bianca: “We should’ve gotten our discharge note signed earlier. No reason to waste a whole bed for one more night.” She orders a $15 Uber on her own account to pick the couple up. The nurses cheer.

I get out around 4:00 pm on Friday. I meet Jane’s two college friends at a local brewery. Her best friend is still using U.S. student loans to complete her master’s degree in New Zealand, primarily as a way of staying in the country to be with her boyfriend. She’s writing a thesis on “sex workers” and explains the power dynamics between workers and cultural oppression.

She cites Jane’s other friend at the table as an example of a “forgotten sex worker” because she’d been hugged while working as a waitress in a small-town diner. “This older gentleman who was the diner’s best customer would expect a hug from all the younger female employees. These are the forgotten sex workers oppressed by cultural norms that I am writing about.”

[Editor: In February 2019, the New York Times covered an incident involving commercial sex at a Florida strip mall. The (undocumented) immigrant women working there were described as “prostitutes.” Native-born women working in the same industry, however, were described in previous articles as “sex workers” (example).]

We are joined for dinner by Lanky Luke and PA wife Sarcastic Samantha, and Jane’s sister and her veteran boyfriend for dinner. Jane’s sister has been completing the 22-pushup challenge for veteran suicide awareness, posting a daily Facebook video to increase awareness that an average of 22 veterans kill themselves daily. Her boyfriend was initially supportive, but now is concerned about creating a stereotype that the typical veteran is suicidal. “Few of the veteran suicides were combat veterans from Afghanistan and Iraq. They are Vietnam vets, most of whom didn’t see a day of combat. This whole PTSD phenomenon has been hijacked by non-combat vets trying to get on disability. It takes away resources from the people who actually struggle.

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Did American love of process doom Champlain Towers South?

Owners at Champlain Towers South were told in 2018 that their building needed structural repairs, but the repairs weren’t scheduled to begin until later this year, i.e., a three-year interval. That’s enough time for the Chinese to build an entire city. I’m wondering if our love of process, which sometimes results in more durable structures, is a double-edged sword. If a structure is discovered not to be durable, a multi-year process before repairs can begin results in multiple years of vulnerability.

How much do we love process? Here’s a recent letter regarding what would have been an in-person meeting tonight. There will be deliberate consideration regarding the installation of a hand rail outside a bathroom:

(On Zoom, of course, because Coronapanic continues.)

Related:

  • “Miami-Area Condo Owners Pushed Town for Construction Approvals Days Before Collapse” (WSJ): ‘This is holding us up,’ the Champlain Towers South property manager emailed Surfside officials; town manager said no indication of need for emergency action
  • “Ten Thousand Commandments 2021” (CEI): “An Annual Snapshot of the Federal Regulatory State … Regulatory costs of $1.9 trillion amount to 9 percent of U.S. gross domestic product… If it were a country, U.S. regulation would be the world’s eighth-largest economy.. If one assumed that all costs of federal regulation flowed all the way down to households, U.S. households would “pay” $14,368 annually on average in a regulatory hidden tax.”
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How rich would we be if God had told us about coronapanic in November 2019?

Suppose that you got a letter from God in November 2019 saying that coronapanic would start in March 2020, with unprecedented shutdowns of schools, factories, retail, restaurants, etc. God would have told you that China, Japan, and Taiwan would experience relatively minor shutdowns, that Sweden would have no shutdown, that everyone would try to meet by videoconference, and that most countries and U.S. states would have lengthy shutdowns.

The most obvious response to this as an investor would have been (1) buy China, Japan, and Taiwan, (2) short the U.S., (3) short Europe, (4) buy some individual stocks such as Zoom, and (5) maintain the strategy until a vaccine authorization (not “approval”!) was announced (not because of a belief that COVID-19 vaccines will eliminate COVID-19, but because of a belief that other investors would believe that COVID-19 vaccines will eliminate COVID-19 and therefore coronapanic-related shutdowns).

Let’s see how that would have done. We’ll say that we started the strategy on November 15, 2019 and closed it out on November 10, 2020 a day after Pfizer celebrated the defeat of Big Pharma’s nemesis (Donald J. Trump) by finally disclosing Phase 3 vaccine trial results. We would use 40 percent weight on Asia, 40 percent on the US/Europe short, and a remaining 20 percent on individual stocks.

Let’s first benchmark this against a not-favored-by-God person buying and holding the S&P 500. SPX went from 3120 to 3360 (up 7%).

Element 1 (buy Asia): SSE (Shanghai Index) went from 2911 to 3330 (up 14%). The Nikkei (Japan) went from 23160 to 25087 (up 8%, but this would be called the largest move by far by the journalists writing about COVID in India!). TWSE (Taiwan) went from 52.20 to 61.60 (up 18%).

Element 2 (short the U.S.): as noted above, this would have lost roughly 7% (we’ll ignore dividends since the stuff we bought long would have paid dividends as well).

Element 3 (short Europe): Let’s use the MSCI Europe index. It went from 136 to 127 (down 7%).

Element 4 (buy Zoom, et al): ZM from 68 to 433 (up 536%!), AMZN from 1760 to 3231 (up 83%)

So we’d be up roughly 12% on Asia, flat on the U.S. and Europe (assume equal weight between these two and they moved in opposite directions), and up about 250% on the individual stocks. After transaction costs, given the assumed weights, we’d be up 50-55% for the year.

That’s a lot less than I would have expected!

Above: God creates a Robinhood user.

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I love AOC even more now

Some folks have harsh words for AOC, plainly America’s greatest living political philosopher. Even if you don’t agree with her economic and social plans for the United States, you will, I hope, agree with me that she is a huge success as an electrical engineer.

The AOC 1601FWUX makes it easy for those fleeing the COVID-plagued Northeast to work from a laptop computer. For only $180, the device doubles the amount of screen space available when working from a laptop. The 15.6″ IPS display gets both power and signal from the laptop’s USB-C port, which means that you don’t need to carry another power brick. It worked immediately with my 2017 Dell XPS 13, which has been a spectacularly crummy laptop in nearly every respect.

The included magnetic stand lets you position this second monitor in either landscape or portrait mode (ideal for reading a PDF while typing at a word processing document on the main laptop screen).

This is the perfect gift for anyone who travels.

Readers: Who has used a similar device? I think that ASUS pioneered the segment, but their current product is compromised in brightness due to a desire to have it work from legacy USB-A ports that can’t supply as much power.

Related:

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Reinterpreting MLK’s ideas of freedom for the Age of COVID

Today we celebrate our traitorous rebellion from the legitimate rule of Great Britain, carried out in the name of “freedom.” The rebellion enabled us to continue chattel slavery and stealing land from Native Americans west of the Proclamation Line. Let’s consider our current state of “freedom” as we all take a break from cashing our unemployment checks on this holiday of July 4th.

From Martin Luther King, Jr., whose first book was titled Stride Toward Freedom:

Freedom is never voluntarily given by the oppressor; it must be demanded by the oppressed.

The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.

If you can’t fly then run, if you can’t run then walk, if you can’t walk then crawl, but whatever you do you have to keep moving forward.

All we say to America is, ‘Be true to what you said on paper.’ If I lived in China or even Russia, or any totalitarian country, maybe I could understand the denial of certain basic First Amendment privileges, because they hadn’t committed themselves to that over there. But somewhere I read of the freedom of assembly. …

MLK, Jr. was one of our greatest thinkers, but even his mind could not stretch to the idea that people in Massachusetts, California, and New York would actually welcome being locked down for more than a year:

Oppressed people cannot remain oppressed forever. The yearning for freedom eventually manifests itself.

(When exactly?)

Reasonable people, of course, would point out that healthy young people in these states were denied what had formerly been considered their rights for only 16 months or so. And maybe this coming fall or winter too, depending on what the public health technocrats recommend.

A right delayed is a right denied.

Let’s see how the ideas of our greatest thinker on the subject of freedom have been reinterpreted during the ongoing coronapanic…. some photos from an April 2021 trip to Atlanta and the Martin Luther King, Jr. National Historical Park. The “Freedom Hall” was closed “out of an abundance of caution regarding the COVID-19 virus”:

How about the Freedom Walkway? That’s now a “Restricted Area”:

Even before coronapanic, the architect’s original vision for the reflecting pool had been disfigured with plastic barriers, which I was told were essentially permanent fixtures, to keep the public away:

Compare to my photo from the summer of 1994:

What words were important enough to be on MLK, Jr.’s grave?

“Free at last! Free at last! thank God Almighty, we are free at last!”

At least as of June 16, according to the web site, all of the park buildings remained closed.

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COVID-19 policy is more like the Vietnam War or more like the Penicillin miracle drug euphoric stage?

Averros’s comment on The English decide to stay in their foxholes (COVID surge despite vaccination):

The main lesson of this quasi-pandemic is that public experts are, by and large, idiots and/or charlatans.

Any actual scientist given the facts as following: quickly mutating kind of viruses, vaccine tech producing very specific immune response and incapable of conferring sterilizing immunity, widespread community transmission will immediately figure out that mass immunization creates strong selective pressure on the virus thus rapidly creating new strains which not only avoid vaccines but also re-infect people who did get the cooties before.

With these givens the correct strategy is to vaccinate only those at risk of severe illness so as to protect them while minimizing generation of new strains.

But, no, the over-educated idiots and vaccine salesmen never think about anything further than immediate results of their actions. It’s like antibiotic overuse take 2 – only faster moving. The EYIs [Educated Yet Idiots] learned nothing from the previous bouts of medically-induced pathogen evolution.

My personal view for most of the past year has been that the best analogy to the typical Church of Shutdown state’s War on COVID-19 is the American side of the Vietnam War. Our best and brightest (e.g., Dr. Fauci, state governors flanked by their public health officials) present charts and statistics showing that, in any given month, the war against coronavirus is being won. The population is assured that just a little more sacrifice will yield massive dividends. Sometimes the Priests of Shutdown will draw on mathematical models from Whiz Kids. Month after month of winning battles leads to… a lost war (e.g., Maskachusetts having 3X the death rate of Florida, adjusted for population over 65, but the population still has faith in Robert S. McNamara (Governor Charlie Baker)).

But I wonder if averros has a better analogy. Circa 1950, the typical layperson thought that we were done with bacterial infection, despite the fact that #Science had already seen evolved resistance in action. See “Penicillin’s Discovery and Antibiotic Resistance: Lessons for the Future?” (Yale J. Biol Med):

2016 marks the 75th anniversary of the first systemic administration of penicillin in humans, and is therefore an occasion to reflect upon the extraordinary impact that penicillin has had on the lives of millions of people since. This perspective presents a historical account of the discovery of the wonder drug, describes the biological nature of penicillin, and considers lessons that can be learned from the golden era of antibiotic research, which took place between the 1940s and 1960s.

More than 150 antibiotics have been found since the discovery of penicillin, and for the majority of antibiotics available, resistance has emerged. Moreover, the recent rise of multi/pan-drug resistant strains has correlated with enhanced morbidity and mortality. Overall, ineffectiveness of the antibiotic treatments to “superbug” infections has resulted in persistence and spread of multi-resistant species [42] across the globe. This represents a serious worldwide threat to public health [41].

In early 1945, Fleming predicted that the high public demand of antibiotics would determine an “era of abuse”; this eventually became a reality [43-45]. No sooner had the miraculous effects of penicillin become apparent to the general public, then the antibiotic started to be overused. This triggered selective pressure for the emergence of penicillin-resistant strains, which over a few years spread across different countries. The discovery of each new generation of antibiotic quickly followed the same trend.

(How long it will be before American K-12ers are taught to celebrate the pioneering efforts of BIPOC American women in developing penicillin and the 1945 Nobel Prize won by Alexa Fleming, Ernestine Chain, and Heather Walter Florey?)

From the Journal of Popular Studies:

Related:

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Helicopter snaphots

We’re flying with the doors off the Robinson R44 in order to avoid being baked to death in the recent weather (over 90 degrees in God’s chosen system of units). That enables your humble instructor to snap a few iPhone 12 Pro Max photos from the left seat.

On the ramp at our local airport (KBED), the F-18s that Joe Biden recommends for personal ownership (try to get a friend to pay for fuel, though!):

See if you can spot the Black Lives Matter banner on the all-white church in the all-white town of Concord, Maskachusetts:

The Concord-Carlisle High School, a $93 million project (about $71,000 per student, half paid for by the state) that taxpayers wisely decided not to use for a year (#AbundanceOfCaution; it was closed entirely for 6 months and then students were able to start attending half time):

The Lincoln K-8 school, a $110 million project, including the solar panels that were borrowed against in an off-books accounting maneuver, ($250,000 per student, 100 percent paid for by the town):

(This is being done as an in-place renovation, with students displaced to trailers for three years, because the campus supposedly does not have enough room for the usual “build new building in parking lot or on soccer field, then demolish old one” process.)

One of the families whose next 30 years of property taxes will fund the bond for the above. #InThisTogether:

(Imagine the legal fees if the “dependent” spouse “pulls a Melinda” and sues the spouse who earned enough money to build the above house! The happy plaintiff can beat the heat with Tinder dates by the pool.)

Mitt Romney’s legacy, the Mormon Temple in Belmont, MA:

Put on a mask and let your cows and sheep graze for free on Cambridge Common:

MIT Lincoln Lab:

Scroll to 1970 on the timeline and you’ll see that the Mode S transponder that is the building block for ADS-B was developed here.

Why can’t you get a seat on the Red Line trains that run every 10 minutes starting at Alewife? Check out everything that has been built recently near the station (center right of frame):

(the three red brick towers in the foreground are public housing (777 units for the worthy poor: “the towers—like many high-rise housing projects of the era—quickly became associated with crime… the complex is still a focus for law enforcement activity, and in 2008 the Cambridge Police opened a substation at the towers”) and, until a few decades ago, were the only significant buildings)

The Gropius House in Lincoln (cost about 4X/square foot to build as a typical house of the time):

A helicopter CFI gets current. We went to downtown Boston to get away from some light rain showers at Bedford:

It is a little unnerving to be using one’s phone as a camera through the open door of a helicopter. Lean out too far into the 90 mph breeze and it will be time to visit the Apple Store (don’t forget to make a COVID appointment, buy a mask, and get temperature-screened!). Maybe a case with a strap?

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