Kobe Bryant crash: NTSB says that it was all the pilot’s fault

From a year ago… Aviation weather reports at the time of Kobe Bryant crash:

Assuming that it was bad weather that led to this accident, the engineering question is “Why couldn’t the $10 million helicopter fly itself away from obstacles, the way that a $400 DJI drone can?”

A Sikorsky is equipped with multiple computer-readable attitude sources so that the onboard processors know whether the machine is pitched or banked. It has multiple GPS position sensors so it knows where it is. It has at least one terrain database so it knows where the obstacles are. It has autopilot servos capable of maneuvering the aircraft. Why doesn’t it have the intelligence to say “You’re about to hit something, would you like me to take over and fly away from these obstacles and park on the ramp at the Van Nuys Airtel so that we can all relax?”

From 2019… New York helicopter crash: why not robot intelligence?

Thus we have a machine with autopilot servos that can manipulate cyclic and collective. The machine came with a glass cockpit so it also should have at least two digital attitude sources (whether the helicopter is pitched up, banked left, etc.). Finally, it almost surely had a GPS receiver and a digital terrain database, which would have included the obstacles of Manhattan.

Media coverage centered on the pilot’s lack of an instrument rating (example: CNN). (In fact, being capable of instrument flight does not help that much unless one is actually planning an IFR flight from airport to airport with established procedures for departure and approach/landing.)

Nobody seems to have asked “If it had autopilot servos, attitude sources, and a GPS, why couldn’t a $10 million helicopter fly itself through the low clouds, away from the buildings, and to the destination? A DJI drone would have been able to do that.”

We expect so much of our phones and so little from our aircraft!

The NTSB issued “Pilot’s Poor Decision Making, Spatial Disorientation, Led to Fatal Helicopter Crash” yesterday:

“Unfortunately, we continue to see these same issues influence poor decision making among otherwise experienced pilots in aviation crashes,” said NTSB Chairman Robert Sumwalt. “Had this pilot not succumbed to the pressures he placed on himself to continue the flight into adverse weather, it is likely this accident would not have happened. A robust safety management system can help operators like Island Express provide the support their pilots need to help them resist such very real pressures.”

The solution to the age-old problem of scud-running, in other words, is a bureaucrat with a safety management document, not a few lines of DJI-style code.

A 2006 photo from a Robinson R44 helicopter (picking it up at the factory and flying back to Boston). The LA freeways are easy to follow, but they climb up towards the clouds whenever there is a ridge.

Meanwhile, the “supersized DJI” world got a boost this week as United ordered eVTOL aircraft from “Archer” (not Piper Archers!).

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Medical School 2020, Year 3, Week 0 (Orientation)

Students return for Year 3 of medical school. We’ve had a 2-4 week break depending on when we took our Step 1 exam. Most students, including me, are still waiting on their Step 1 scores. Lanky Luke surmises that we took a new test, which required aggregation of a few weeks of tests to normalize the scores to previous versions. Five classmates met up in Seattle for a road trip through San Francisco, San Diego, and the Grand Canyon. I visited family, and relaxed with Jane before she departed for boot camp. She returns next week.

“I am ready to learn some real skills,” exclaims Lanky Luke. “When friends and family ask about their various medical issues, I realize how little I know.” Hard Working Harold: “Give me a multiple choice question and I’ll answer the shit out of it. Send me into a patient room, and I’ll have no idea where to start.”

Orientation begins at 7:00 am with an introduction from the clerkship director, a practicing psychiatrist. “When I went to medical school, we used to call you clerks. You are no longer a student. You no longer shadow.” She lays out some basic principles for success:

  1. “If you meet with me, it’s because you’re in trouble. I will be following your progress from afar. I hope I never see you in my office until you apply for residency.”
  2. “The focus is no longer on you. This can be hard for young people. If someone does not smile back at you or yells an expletive because they just lost a patient on the OR table, do not take it personally.”
  3. Become part of the team. “The team will function with or without you. Don’t get in the way. If there is a trauma that needs urgent resuscitation, this might not the best time to be asking questions or trying out new skills. You can impact patient care. Every block we get a report that a medical student discovered a complication. You will be able to know your patients at a much greater detail than residents or attendings because you have more time per patient.”
  4. Duty hours. “Know your Duty Hours. It’s your responsibility to not violate them. You cannot work more than 80 hours per week, averaged over four weeks. It is extremely hard to violate this. I’ve had students in the past complain to me that they are being forced to work more than duty ours when they are getting of at 5:30 pm when they just had radiology rotation last week. Come on… Also, don’t complain on evaluations when you get out at 5:30 when they told you would get out at 5:00 pm. Things change. to get out to avoid this, I’ve stopped telling my students when I expect us.”
  5. Be curious about everything. “Even if you are not interested in psychiatry, you need these skills for any specialty. We had a student deliver a baby on the psychiatry floor.”
  6. “Check your email, not instagram. I make an effort to answer email until about 11:00 pm. That means if you believe it is necessary to send me an email at 10:30 pm and I respond, DON’T reply back in 5 days.”
  7. Scrubs are not to pick up ladies. “Don’t steal scrubs. We watch. Scrubs Out must equal Scrubs In. An OR employee took a video that was sent to my desk showing a few medical students wearing their bloody scrubs at a local bar hitting on some women. I laugh when I get video of students walking out with scrubs on.” [Gigolo Giorgio: “How do they catch us? They must be surveillance cameras on the exits!”]
  8. “Take evaluations seriously, especially learning environment violations [e.g., physical or mental harassment by attendings, inappropriate conduct towards students]. For God’s sake, read the question. I have so many examples of someone checking “Yes” and putting “N/A” on the learning environment violation. If you have a reportable offense write it, but spend enough time reading it to know what you are answering. It matters. The LCME scrutinizes our reported rate. They are like the Supreme Court.  Five people came from LCME a few years ago. They analyze every detail. For example, they ask how many residents we have here. They then asked to see every resident’s signature attesting they receive training about the learning environment. I know they cross referenced every one.”

Our next presentation is by the Dean of Student Diversity. Her new assistant, the Inclusion Coordinator, joins her and helps pull up her PowerPoint. Title slide: “In pursuit of cultural sensitivity and awareness.” 

She begins by explaining her own implicit biases and insensitivities. “I want everyone to go home and take Harvard’s implicit bias test. I learned a lot about myself. For example, I have an implicit bias that males are better leaders than females. I apparently have a bias that women are not as good at science. I didn’t even know that about myself.”

The talk concluded with a request that students share microaggressions that they had suffered personally. Fashionable Fiona shared that one of her relatives told her, “You should go to nursing school instead of medical school. It’s too hard. I was pleased to say, ‘I already got into medical school.'” [She got an award for her year 2 block exam performance.] Several women shared that patients mistake them for nurses instead of medical students. One student shared an experience in pediatrics when a nurse asked who the mother for the name of the child’s father. She replied that the kid has two mothers. The nurse replied, ‘But who is the dad? I need to fill this in on Epic.'” 

The Dean of Student Diversity concluded: “I hope everyone goes home and reflects about their own implicit biases. We each should strive to learn about a new community everyday. I will admit that I am ignorant about much of the transgender community. I am trying to learn about their language and customs. I don’t know much about them.”

The next day we begin with a presentation from a Department of Health official about vaccination. “As you begin your rotations, you are going to interact with patients that do not believe in vaccines. As a healthcare worker you need to know about the misconceptions that are out there.”

The biggest misconception is that vaccines cause Autism. She explained that this movement originated in Dr. Andrew Wakefield’s study that found eight children who got MMR around the same time autism symptoms presented. This caused havoc in the UK. MMR vaccine rates plummeted, yet Autism rates persisted. The UK now has 80 percent MMR rates, well below the 95 percent required for herd immunity. Measles is now endemic in the UK.

“We find that physicians are a key communicator in the community to get vaccine rates up. Most of the time, the parents will change their mind if you delve into their thought process. That takes time that most physicians unfortunately don’t have anymore.” 

Orientation concludes with a presentation on social media pitfalls and patient privacy. The Privacy Officer: “Long story short: don’t snapchat or instagram. Talk about patients in the resident lounge not on elevators.” [This advice was not heeded as Pinterest Penelope decided to snapchat a drug-screen result testing positive for benzos, cocaine, meth, heroin, and thc for a patient with the caption, “Must have been a crazy party.”

Friday afternoon, I volunteer at the free clinic associated with our university. I interview the patient first, and then present the findings to an M4. We then interview the patient together and give a final report to the attending, typically an internist, family medicine physician or emergency medicine physician. The first patient: 56-year-old female with a history of depression and type 2 diabetes presents for a diabetes check up. She has been doing fantastic, losing 50 in one year while keeping her A1Cs in the 6 percent range. However, last year, she has gained 40 pounds and her A1C this visit has jumped to 7.5. As I do a medication overview, she says she has been taking depakote (valproic acid), a mood stabilizer for bipolar disorder. Why? She explains she was prescribed it when she was brought to the ED while using heroin. She lied to the physician who took her symptoms as a manic episode. She has not seen the prescription physician since her ED visit. I ask, “Do you have a history of bipolar disorder?” She responds, “No.” She began the depakote around the time she began gaining weight. I speak with the M4 who recalls that depakote can cause a metabolic syndrome. We both go in an complete the exam. He quickly goes through a focused diabetes physical exam, complete with assessment of peripheral neuropathy and retinal exam. He fluidly asks questions focused on diabetes symptoms, e.g., polyuria, visual changes, numbness/tingling in the feet, shortness of breath. We propose our plan to the attending who decides to decrease her dose by half and have her follow up in a few weeks. Overall, I realize how out of practice I am with patient interview and physical exam skills. I recognize that I need to be able to do a diabetes exam, including retinal exam, peripheral neuropathy exam, like the back of my hand. It was exciting to see the M4 perform the exam with such fluidity. 

Statistics for the week… Study: 0 hours. Sleep: 8 hours/night; Fun: 1 night. Example fun: Jane and I attend our class’ July 4th BBQ on the weekend at a classmate’s house. We had an excessive amount of food and beer featuring ribs, burgers, chicken thighs, and local craft beer for a cost of $4 per person paid via Venmo. We eight, including me, who are starting on surgery on Monday are the butt of jokes. Mischievous Mary: “Throwing you to the wolves.” I talked with a refugee-status immigrant from Lebanon who attends the same church as a classmate. Straight-Shooter Sally overhears this and adds, “Oh, have you talked with Geezer George? His family is from Lebanon and he visits there regularly and is always talking about how great it is and encouraging us to come with him.”

The rest of the book: http://fifthchance.com/MedicalSchool2020

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Picking up our Medical School 2020 story

Our hero has graduated. Coronavirus is almost done (thanks to President Biden’s scientific rule, the virus began to decline weeks before he took office). It is time to resume publication of Medical School 2020, the book that explains what it is like to be a medical student in the U.S.

We previously published Year 1 and Year 2 (refresh your memory regarding these weekly diary entries on the book web site). So we’ll start with Year 3 tomorrow.

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Harvard applications up 42 percent as people desperately seek to join the credentialed elite

You don’t want to be working class or a small business owner in the US going forward. With Presidents Biden and Harris promising to direct a larger percentage of American wealth to the credentialed elite, e.g., working in higher education, government, health care, or Big Pharma, Harvard applications are up. “Harvard College Receives Record-High 57,000 Applications, Delays Admissions Release Date” (Crimson):

More than 57,000 students applied for a spot in Harvard College’s Class of 2025, marking a record high and forcing the Admissions Office to push back its decision release date by roughly a week, the office announced Thursday.

The College received roughly 42 percent more applications than last year, when 40,248 students applied for admission to the Class of 2024. This year’s record-high number of applicants comes two years after the Class of 2023 set the previous record with 43,330 applicants.

In theory, this means a 1 in 30 chance of being admitted (2,000 admitted annually). In practice, though, an Asian or white applicant who isn’t an athletic recruit will face much longer odds (see The $70 billion travel sports industry (rich whites and Asians getting their kids into college)).

An aerial photo of the mostly-shut campus (May 2020 by Tony):

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Should a rich person on Medicare buy supplemental insurance?

A friend is turning 65. If he can easily afford the co-pays (20 percent for most things), does it make sense for him to buy insurance to supplement Medicare?

From a reasonably wealthy consumer’s point of view, the main advantage of health insurance in the U.S. is that the insurance company will defend against the providers’ attempts to steal via fake rates. See America’s Efficient Health Care System: my $15 bill for a checkup (2010), in which the doctor charges a fictitious $510 fee for a checkup that is actually valued at $83 (the insurance company’s “negotiated rate”). If you don’t have insurance, you will be attacked by the health care industry with rates that are 5-10X higher than what 95% of patients are paying. No other part of the U.S. economy works like this and I am not even sure how it is legal. The fictitious prices aren’t quoted to the patient in advance. How can it be legal to hit someone with a bill for 5-10X the real price after the visit? If you take your car in for dealer service and the dealer can’t reach you to get authorization for replacing the bald tires, the dealer can’t charge you $5,000 for a set of tires that 95 percent of the dealer’s customers are paying $500 for, right?

[Related question: Why is the uninsured rate only $510 for an $83 service? Why isn’t it $5,100, for example? The insurance company will still pay $83 and the uninsured can be pursued for $5,100. There isn’t a better rational basis for $510 versus $5,100 or vice versa.]

So… if this guy and his wife will be on Medicare, which is doing the negotiation dance with providers, if he doesn’t buy supplemental coverage is there any circumstance in which he’ll be exposed to this kind of systemic crime by the U.S. health care industry? Or will Medicare always negotiate a normal rate for him even if he ultimately has to pay whatever Medicare has negotiated? (In the latter case, it doesn’t make sense for him to buy insurance because he doesn’t need the insurance part of the insurance.) Is there any convenience benefit to having supplemental insurance, e.g., one doesn’t get annoyed via mail with $10 or $15 hardcopy bills?

A couple of Medicare beneficiaries and their pup, enjoying a misty day at the beach in Hilton Head, South Carolina (January 2021):

And the South Carolina license plate motto (“While I Breathe, I Hope”), perfect for the Age of COVID-19:

Also of interest from Hilton Head…

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We will solve our affordable housing crisis with vastly expanded immigration

From the New York Times, a tireless cheerleader for more low-skill immigration into the U.S…. “Pandemic’s Toll on Housing: Falling Behind, Doubling Up”:

Even before last year, about 11 million households — one in four U.S. renters — were spending more than half their pretax income on housing, and overcrowding was on the rise. By one estimate, for every 100 very low-income households, only 36 affordable rentals are available.

When your hospitals are 110 percent full, the solution is more immigration. When there are 3X as many people who need affordable housing compared to the supply, the solution is more immigration.

One block back from the sand in Atlantic Beach, Florida:

(in other words, migrants are welcome, but not the big concrete condo and apartment buildings that could actually house an expanded population; note that signs of virtue/justice were extremely rare in Florida (January 2021 trip) compared to here in Maskachusetts; I took this photo because it was an unusual scene)

Related:

  • “Hunter Biden and wife Melissa upsize into $25k-a-month canal-front home in Venice, California” (Daily Mail): “Interestingly the homeless people who were living up along the street he now lives on are gone. … His two-year-old daughter with stripper Lunden Roberts, 29, was not present. … The stylish 3,700 square feet home boasts 25-foot acoustic ceilings hanging over contemporary limestone white floors in the living room.” (a fairly spacious house; will Hunter Biden be willing to dedicate a spare bedroom to housing one of the migrant families that his father tells Americans it is their responsibility to shelter?)
  • “Turned Back by Italy, Migrants Face Perilous Winter in Balkans” (NYT, today): “To escape persecution in his homeland, a 27-year-old Pakistani man walked over mountains and through woods on an arduous 18-month journey across Bosnia, Croatia and Slovenia until he finally reached the Italian border.” (the remaining 216 million people in Pakistan must suffer continued persecution? Italians don’t want to solve their own hospital and housing overcrowding situation by taking in more migrants?)
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Thanks to Biden, we can get booze and dope after hours here in Maskachusetts

With science-informed leadership in the White House, Maskachusetts residents are now marked safe from late-night alcohol and marijuana, according to the governor’s 62nd executive order (dated January 21, 2021, a day after the Most Blessed Event):

Related:

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Is it time for the British to beg their way back into the European Union?

I’m sure that we can all agree that the working class in Britain shot themselves in the feet by not listening to the elites when it was time for the 2016 Brexit vote. Now that we’ve learned more about science and realize that the only important function of a government is protecting subjects from COVID-19 (corollary to the only important function of a human being to avoid coronavirus infection), let’s look at the vaccination rate in the UK (18 per 100) versus the abandoned EU (4 per 100):

In light of these data, when would be the optimum time for the Brits to rejoin the EU?

Related:

  • Linguistic impact of the Brexit? (a Jennifer’s lawsuit to cash out from her marriage is referred to as “the Jexit”)
  • “Solidarity Is Not an Easy Sell as E.U. Lags in Vaccine Race” (NYT, today): There is no doubt that the European Union bungled many of the early steps to line up vaccines. It was slower off the mark, overly focused on prices while the United States and Britain made dollars and pounds no object, and it succumbed to an abundance of regulatory caution. All those things have left the bloc flat-footed as drugmakers fall behind on their promised orders. But the 27 countries of the European Union are also attempting something they have never tried before and have broken yet another barrier in their deeper integration — albeit shakily — by choosing to cast their lot together in the vaccine hunt. With just over 3 percent of E.U. nationals having received at least one dose of a vaccine by the end of last week, in stark contrast to Britain’s 17 percent and the United States’ 9 percent, nowhere does the lag sting more than in Germany, the bloc’s biggest economy and de facto leader.
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Best Super Bowl commercials?

What are folks’ favorite Super Bowl commercials so far? (with YouTube links if possible)

My favorite is this Jeep commercial in which Bruce Springsteen (arrested in November 2020 for “suspicion of driving while intoxicated”) says “As for freedom, it’s not the property of just the fortunate few, it belongs to us all, whoever you are, wherever you’re from.”

Residents of California and Maskachusetts certainly have the freedom to follow their respective governors’ orders to stay home, educate their children themselves (while paying taxes to fund still-closed schools), fill out mandatory travel forms telling friendly government officials where they’ve been, supply medical records to the government when asked (or pay a $7,000 per-person fine), etc. (See this ranking of states by coronapanic restrictions.)

Jeep also reminds us that these are the “ReUnited States” now that a single party controls Congress and the White House and can do whatever it wants to people who voted for the other party.

Could it be that Jeep is lobbying for a handout from the unifying Biden administration now that the Kia Telluride is on the Car and Driver 10Best list rather than a Jeep?

And what do football connoisseurs think of the game?

Some photos from Tampa… Bern’s Steakhouse (if you have a craving for an Impossible Burger within a week of eating at Bern’s, I will pay for your soy and coconut oil mishmash):

A billboard offering “wife insurance” next to an, um, gentleman’s club:

A Grumman Widgeon at Sun n Fun (April 2021, supposedly!) in nearby Lakeland (sacred to Frank Lloyd Wright enthusiasts):

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California schoolteacher goes back to work

A young healthy vaccinated unionized schoolteacher finally feels safe enough to return to work in Los Angeles:

Photo by Phill Magakoe and actually from “South Africa Halts Use of AstraZeneca Vaccine” (NYT):

South Africa halted use of the AstraZeneca-Oxford coronavirus vaccine on Sunday after evidence emerged that the vaccine did not protect clinical-trial participants from mild or moderate illness caused by the more contagious virus variant that was first seen there.

Scientists in South Africa said on Sunday that a similar problem held among people who had been infected by earlier versions of the coronavirus: the immunity they acquired naturally did not appear to protect them from mild or moderate cases when reinfected by the variant, known as B.1.351.

Remember that (1) Republicans are idiots because they don’t believe in evolution; (2) We need to stay shut down only until the vaccines become available because the virus can never evolve its way around the vaccines and therefore vaccines will terminate the pandemic.

(Corollary to the above: The Swedish MD/PhDs who, back in February 2020 said that coronavirus would be with us forever and therefore you shouldn’t take any public health measures that you couldn’t keep in place for decades, were definitely wrong.)

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