Author: philg

I just talked to a friend to see how badly he was suffering in Month 4 of quarantine at his oceanfront estate in Maine (see “Your lockdown may vary”). How was society up there doing?

Our politicians say all the same things as politicians in Massachusetts. Compliance and enforcement are non-existent. So everyone is happy. Real estate prices are up 20 percent over last year with people fleeing New York and Massachusetts.

What about schools for the fall? The local public schools have not made any announcements and are not promising anything.

Nobody wears a mask, despite the governor’s orders?

You can predict the mask situation by the demographic of the store. If it is a hardware or auto parts store, nobody working or shopping there will be wearing a mask. If it is a high-end bakery, everyone will be masked.

(People love to compare Sweden to nearby Norway and Finland and draw conclusions about the dramatic effects of government policy. Maine, despite having a reasonable-sized city (Portland), has only 1/20th the plague death rate of Maskachusetts (stats). Yet nobody tries to compare government policy in Maine versus Massachusetts and use any difference as an explanation for the difference in death rate.)

Portland from the Robinson R44 last year:

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“Sweden Has Become the World’s Cautionary Tale” (NYT, today):

Its decision to carry on in the face of the pandemic has yielded a surge of deaths without sparing its economy from damage — a red flag as the United States and Britain move to lift lockdowns.

This is what has happened: Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden’s economy has fared little better.

“They literally gained nothing,” said Jacob F. Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “It’s a self-inflicted wound, and they have no economic gains.”

The elevated death toll resulting from Sweden’s approach has been clear for many weeks. What is only now emerging is how Sweden, despite letting its economy run unimpeded, has still suffered business-destroying, prosperity-diminishing damage, and at nearly the same magnitude of its neighbors.

Elevated death toll? Compared to what? The New York Times never lets on that IHME forecasts roughly the same death rate from Covid-19 for the U.S. and Sweden through October 1. They also don’t compare Sweden’s death rate to the U.K.’s (in Month 4 of shutdown?), Belgium, or Spain!

How do we know that the Church of Shutdown is a religion? The parishioners at the New York Times look at the graph of daily deaths in the US, the UK, and Sweden, smoothed over 7 days for reporting, and adjusted for population. The Religion of Shutdown tells them that it is obvious from these apparently similar curves which of these countries should be considered a “cautionary tale”.

“They literally gained nothing,” says the economist quoted in the article? This is a perfect illustration of the old adage that an economist is someone who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing. How about this for a partial list:

• Swedish children gained three months of education while American children were imprisoned in crummy apartments. Swedish children gained three months of playing with friends on playgrounds while American children were watching TV.
• Swedish adults gained four months of work experience while Americans are now in Month 4 of cashing government checks, drinking alcohol, and smoking marijuana from the “essential” marijuana stores.
• Swedish adults gained four months of time at the gym while Americans gained four months of being sedentary except for trips to the fridge every 15 minutes.
• Swedes of all ages gained four months of socializing with other humans. That’s valuable if your goal as a human is something more than staring at a screen.
• Swedes of all ages gained not having to watch people come out of lockdown to riot, loot, and burn their cities.
• Swedes of all ages gained the advantage of a society in which fewer people hate each other. With no mask law, people can’t hate each other for mask rule interpretation. Without a belief that government policy will determine the outcome of a viral epidemic, the Swedes can’t hate those who voted for a different political party.

The article includes a portrait of the unmasked unrepentant infidels (from the perspective of the Church of Shutdown):

Photos like these will be the modern Rake’s Progress?

With the same death rate plus all of the educational, developmental, inequality, unemployment, and social ills of six months of lockdown (or partial lockdown), if Sweden is a “cautionary tale” what is the U.S.?

Some stats…

Sweden reported 0 Covid-19 deaths on Sunday and Monday to the WHO and 13 today. That averages to 4 Covid-19 deaths in a country of 10 million people. Here in the success story of Maskachusetts (population 7 million), there are roughly 15 deaths per day on a steady basis (July 7 report). Massachusetts will exceed 8,000 total deaths by tomorrow. Sweden is at 5,433 (i.e., less than half the total death rate, adjusted for population).

Swedish ICUs are emptying out:

This data nerd says that Stockholm reached “herd immunity” quite some time ago (though, remember that herd immunity was not a goal of the Swedish policy, but only a byproduct). Given how people tweaked their behavior, e.g., trying to stand farther apart and avoiding mass gatherings, the herd immunity threshold, he claims, is when roughly 6-10 percent of the population comes up positive on the antibody tests (remember that not everyone is susceptible to begin with).

Related:

• “Big differences in mortality in spring 2020 based on country of birth”: People born in Somalia, Syria and Iraq, who are likely to be weakly established in Sweden, had a marked increase in mortality compared to people born in Sweden, the EU, the Nordic countries or North America in the spring of 2020 (Figure 2). A similar picture, but offset in time, is seen even if Stockholm County is excluded (not shown). In the age group 40–64 years, in March – May 2020, 122 deaths occurred in immigrant groups that are likely to be weakly established in Sweden, compared with an average of 38.5 in 2016–2019, a death rate of 220 percent. In the same age group, 1 percent lower mortality was seen among people born in Sweden, the EU, the Nordic countries or North America. Among those over the age of 65, there was the same excess mortality in the group with probable weak establishment (220 percent), but also some mortality (19 percent) among those born in Sweden, the EU, the Nordic countries or North America. (From Google Translate; the gist is that Sweden’s numbers may look uglier than some neighbors’ because Sweden has more low-skill migrants and these migrants have off-the-charts Covid-19 mortality.)

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From Massachusetts General Hospital (“the Massive Genital” to some of my physician friends), a 50-page summary of what is known regarding Covid-19 risks and mitigation in schools. A fwe excerpts:

Based on early data, schools do not appear to have played a major role in COVID-19 transmission. Based on data at this time, transmission from students to staff and from students to other students (especially younger students) appears to be rare, and will likely be even more rare with appropriate risk mitigation strategies.

(conclusion after reading the above: let’s keep schools closed anyway! #AbundanceOfCaution)

#MasksWork:

There are few data about mask use, specifically in schools. The available data about masks usually come from a combination of studies on COVID, SARS, and MERS. There are no data about the combined effectiveness of masks plus face shields plus physical distancing

HEPA filters like those mandated by Governor/Hero Cuomo will save us:

Low-efficiency filters (e.g., less than MERV 8 according to ASHRAE Standard 52.2 or less than ePM2.5 20% according to ISO 16890-1:2016) are very unlikely to make a difference. Of note, high-efficiency filters may be counter-productive since frequent filter changes are needed and a high-pressure drop filter can also diminish the amount of air supplied into the environment, making the filter less effective

I.e., American schools will never get organized to change the HEPA filters often enough.

Also.. don’t ride the bus and don’t sing on the bus!

And, in the ongoing debate about whether to follow advice from Dr. Donald J. Trump, M.D. … “Treatment with Hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin, and Combination in Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19” (International Journal of Infectious Diseases):

According to a protocol-based treatment algorithm, among hospitalized patients, use of hydroxychloroquine alone and in combination with azithromycin was associated with a significant reduction in-hospital mortality compared to not receiving hydroxychloroquine.

How do experts characterize a falling death curve?

The United States is in an acceleration phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Currently there is no known effective therapy or vaccine for treatment of SARS-CoV-2, highlighting urgency around identifying effective therapies.

Here’s the acceleration (nytimes):

Results?

Of 2,541 patients, with a median total hospitalization time of 6 days (IQR: 4-10 days), median age was 64 years (IQR:53-76 years), 51% male, 56% African American, with median time to follow-up of 28.5 days (IQR:3-53). Overall in-hospital mortality was 18.1% (95% CI:16.6%-19.7%); by treatment: hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin, 157/783 (20.1% [95% CI: 17.3%-23.0%]), hydroxychloroquine alone, 162/1202 (13.5% [95% CI: 11.6%-15.5%]), azithromycin alone, 33/147 (22.4% [95% CI: 16.0%-30.1%]), and neither drug, 108/409 (26.4% [95% CI: 22.2%-31.0%])​. … Hydroxychloroquine provided a 66% hazard ratio reduction, and hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin 71% compared to neither treatment (p < 0.001).

Maybe we have to dig into the paper for adjustments, but it looks as though a higher percentage of those on hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin died (20.1 percent) compared to those only on hydroxychloroquine (13.5 percent).

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The New York Times has been a leader in stoking coronaplague panic (see “Power of the Media to Shape Coronaplague Beliefs” for an example of how the newspaper spun a declining death curve into an all-new reason to panic, for example).

Now they’ve added some articles about the unfortunate consequences of a society where nobody is willing to work.

Example 1 is “In the Covid-19 Economy, You Can Have a Kid or a Job. You Can’t Have Both.”:

The long-term losses [from unionized teachers being unwilling to work] for professional adults will be incalculable, too, and will disproportionately affect mothers. Working mothers all over the country feel that they’re being pushed out of the labor force or into part-time jobs as their responsibilities at home have increased tenfold.

So the newspaper’s goal of keeping the U.S. shutdown forever conflicts with the newspaper’s goal of helping the largest American victimhood class: women.

Good news or bad news, depending on who you are…

The wealthy win. Again.
Without a doubt, reopening schools is a colossal undertaking. There are no easy solutions to finding enough space for students to socially distance, ensuring teachers and staff are protected, adding more sinks and cleaning staff, and implementing widespread temperature checks, testing and contact tracing.

Reopening schools is so “colossal” that nearly all of the European countries have managed to do it?

But after nearly four months since the lockdowns began — four months of working all hours, at remarkable stress levels, while our children have gone without play dates and playgrounds and all of the other stimuli that help them thrive — most parents have been shocked to find that state governments don’t have any creative or even plausible solutions.

She doesn’t like the politicians she voted for in the New York State government! Maybe there is a way to blame Donald Trump?

For parents who cannot simply sort it out, our national response feels more like a dystopian novel where only the wealthy get to limit their exposure and survive the pandemic unscathed. Allowing workplaces to reopen while schools, camps and day cares remain closed tells a generation of working parents that it’s fine if they lose their jobs, insurance and livelihoods in the process. It’s outrageous, and I fear if we don’t make the loudest amount of noise possible over this, we will be erased from the economy.

My friends who are locked down on their oceanfront estates are not complaining so much!

Example 2 is “Colleges Face Rising Revolt by Professors”:

Most universities plan to bring students back to campus. But many of their teachers are concerned about joining them.

Could it be because professors often read the New York Times?

A Cornell University survey of its faculty found that about one-third were “not interested in teaching classes in person,” one-third were “open to doing it if conditions were deemed to be safe,” and about one-third were “willing and anxious to teach in person,” said Michael Kotlikoff, Cornell’s provost.

At Penn State, an open letter signed by more than 1,000 faculty members demands that the university “affirm the autonomy of instructors in deciding whether to teach classes, attend meetings and hold office hours remotely, in person or in some hybrid mode.” The letter also asks for faculty members to be able to change their mode of teaching at any time, and not to be obligated to disclose personal health information as a condition of teaching online.

Many younger professors have concerns as well, including about underlying health conditions, taking care of children who might not be in school full-time this fall, and not wanting to become a danger to their older relatives. Some are angry that their schools are making a return to classrooms the default option. And those who are not tenured said they felt especially vulnerable if they asked for accommodations.

There’s a great photo of a 35-year-old tatooed literature professor. Polynesians got tattoos to show their bravery and resilience to infection. Now the tattooed run away from a 0.01% risk of death?

Yale will be pocketing full tuition and delivering the Khan Academy experience:

Yale said on Wednesday that it would bring only a portion of its students back to campus for each semester: freshmen, juniors and seniors in the fall, and sophomores, juniors and seniors in the spring. “Nearly all” college courses will be taught remotely, the university said, so that all students can enroll in them.

Here’s a guy who should be trying to emigrate to Sweden:

Joshua Wede, 40, a psychology professor at Penn State, argued that it was not possible to maintain a meaningful level of human interaction when students are wearing masks, sitting at least six feet apart and facing straight ahead.

Related:

• https://philip.greenspun.com/blog/2020/06/19/professor-karen-prefers-to-stay-home-this-fall/

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Back in March, the best scientists, including one with a Ph.D. in physics who happens to run Germany (see “60% to 70% of the German population will be infected by the coronavirus, Merkel says”) believed that the majority of a population would have to become infected with coronaplague before herd immunity would would kick in.

“The progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in Sweden: an analysis” does a region-by-region analysis of Sweden, in which plague mitigation efforts among the non-elderly have been minimal, and concludes that when 6 percent test positive for antibodies, herd immunity may be reached among a population that is taking only voluntary precautions:

Notwithstanding that a month ago antibodies were only detected in 6.3% of the Swedish population, the declining death rate since mid-May strongly suggests that the herd immunity threshold had been surpassed in the three largest regions, and in Sweden as a whole, by the end of April. … The herd immunity threshold is likely lower at present than it would be if people were behaving completely normally; it may also be seasonally lower.

Here’s a June 30 article from Quanta, “The Tricky Math of Herd Immunity for COVID-19”:

But on a larger scale, heterogeneity typically lowers the herd immunity threshold. At first the virus infects people who are more susceptible and spreads quickly. But to keep spreading, the virus has to move on to people who are less susceptible. This makes it harder for the virus to spread, so the epidemic grows more slowly than you might have anticipated based on its initial rate of growth.

The above paragraph could have come from a 100-year-old epidemiology text. Thus, it is a example of one of the few bright spots in my coronaplague experience, i.e., seeing how Americans pitch the near-universal failure of “scientists” (except for the MD/PhDs who work for the Swedish government) to predict the likely trajectory and death rate of the epidemic as a success for “science”: Yes, we got everything wrong by a factor of 5-40X, but that just proves how quickly progress can be made in Science with sufficient funding and the right leadership in the White House.

Now that the plague has run its course (for at least Wave #1) here in Maskachusetts, my Facebook feed is packed with people congratulating themselves:

Tremendous achievement in Massachusetts. Not easy. And not free of tremendous costs. But it works and is saving lives ! [over “Mass. Reports 0 New Coronavirus Deaths — and Its Death Toll Drops in Data Cleanup”, regarding a day in which state workers apparently decided to take a mini vacation and not report any deaths]

(A self-proclaimed “data scientist” also posted this as evidence of a grand achievement. The next day, at which point the reported deaths were back to the trend, I ingenuously asked “What happened today? Were there zero deaths again?” He defriended me, thus contributing to my effort to be the most defriended person in the history of Facebook.)

Some data: the July 2 report from MA, population 7 million, with 51 reported deaths. From Texas, population 29 million, 44 reported deaths for the same day:

Florida, population 21 million, suffered 67 deaths on July 2, according to the failing New York Times:

So my friends here in Maskachusetts were celebrating the triumph of humans over a virus despite a death rate vastly higher than the states they explicitly describe as “disasters” and a death rate vastly higher than Belarus, for example, which did not bother to shut down schools, mass gatherings, or anything else. It is a little strange to me, since every year the influenza epidemic winds down and we don’t, every year, celebrate our success in making influenza go away. Example from the CDC of human triumph over the influenza virus:

The smart American humans wiped this virus out back in 2009 (thanks to excellent leadership from President Obama?)!

I wonder if the Facebook and media celebration of a zero-death data anomaly in Maskachusetts is a guide to how Americans will process their months (or years?) of shutdown when coronaplague does finally burn itself out. They will simply assert that the sacrifices that they made prevented the virus from killing millions of people, just as the Flagellants believed that they ended the Black Death. And then there will be a twist in which people will assert that things being taught in epidemiology skool back in the 1800s (e.g., Farr’s law) were newly discovered by heroic “scientists” in mid-2020.

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