Category: Business

AI Product Idea: Alter Ego

by philg

How about this use of artificial intelligence/LLMs… a complete personality upgrade.

Consider that in-person interaction is becoming increasingly rare. Most of what is known about someone’s personality is based on whatever he/she/ze/they has typed into a computer or a phone. There is a range of personality quality and some of us are near the bottom, e.g., gratuitously annoying or offending people. What if phone and desktop operating systems were modified to include an AI personality adjuster? The user’s emails, social media posts, text messages, etc. would all be edited to read like whatever a person with a great (kind, optimistic, non-sarcastic, non-sour) personality would have written.

“I paid $45,000 for this car and your incompetent mechanics haven’t fixed the A/C after three visits” becomes “Thank you and your team for working hard to get my A/C fixed on the last three service visits. I appreciate your diligence, especially since you sold me the car for only $45,000, which I know was an especially fair deal. I am wondering if I can schedule a fourth service on the A/C.”

Here’s a tweet from someone with a terrible personality:

Instead of “How is an organization with a white male leader equipped to demand that others stop being racist?” this comment would be rewritten to “Thank you and your tireless UN colleagues for all of the work that you do to make the world a better place. I hope that you can stay in your Secretary-General job until you’re 95, but if you choose to enjoy a well-earned retirement it would be interesting to see what a Secretary-General of color would do.”

(Note how my reply got only 28 views; X has an algorithm to keep people in echo chambers. It has learned that nothing I write is going to make people who follow the UN happy or interested and, therefore, suppresses views for any comment that I might make on a UN post. Similar replies on conservative users’ tweet have gotten at least a few hundred views.)

This could have saved James Damore, the Google Heretic. His entire manifesto would have been reduced to “Women are so much better at programming than men because they just love a job where they sit by themselves and stare at a screen all day. It would be wonderful if Google would hire more females even if their education and skills don’t appear to be sufficient for the jobs.”

If fed statistics from online dating markets and told to write for success, the AI would rewrite most messages from men to women to be variations on “I am 6’2″ tall and earn $750,000 per year.” (see “Income attraction: An online dating field experiment”, for example) “Rammstein is my favorite group” would become “$10,000 is not too much to spend on a Taylor Swift concert.” The political stuff would be trivial for an AI to handle. If a man wrote “I voted for Donald Trump” that would be tweaked to “I am inspired by Kamala Harris and all of the other amazing Democrat women.”

A social media comment on a post celebrating a female aviation achievement under the Are women the new children? standard would go from “Don’t forget Hanna Reitsch, the first woman to fly a helicopter, and a passionate advocate for her government and nation.” to “Great to see someone breaking barriers.”

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Alaska Airlines DEI

by philg

Here’s the Alaska Airlines July 2024 DEI update:

Their commitments didn’t include committing to flying to Seattle from FLL on February 20, 2025 at 7:00 am. I got a text message from them about cancellation just as I was walking up to the gate shortly before 6:00 am. Note that their plan is a 30-hour delay (the substitute 3-leg flight is on February 21, a day later than the original 2-leg flight):

(A lot of other passengers got texts with the same itinerary and none of them complained to the gate agent because Alaska Airlines had wisely chosen not to send any personnel to the gate. Everyone gathered in a Fall of Saigon scene back at the ticket counter and then at a carousel to retrieve what would have been our checked bags.)

What was Alaska Airlines working on if not getting us to the destination that we’d paid for? The skin tone and gender ID of the pilots: “125 new students enrolled in the Ascend Pilot Academy (26% BIPOC, 36% Female). Surpassed commitment to increase Black female pilots at Air Group by nearly 33%.”

For those concerned about safety, the good news is that a DEI pilot hire can’t crash an airliner that never takes off.

My DEI day started hours earlier. If I’d wanted to do a slow three-leg trip to Fairbanks I could have done it starting at nearby PBI. Instead, I chose to fly from FLL, which is an hour’s drive away. Because it would be 4:15 am and I might want to snooze, I reserved “Uber Premier” at over $190 rather than Uber Comfort at $110. Initially a pavement-melting GMC Yukon was going to show up, but then either the driver canceled or Uber canceled him because he wasn’t expected to arrive by 4:15 am. A 2022 Tesla 3 was substituted. The driver was a nice guy and I learned a fair amount about Teslas (he’s test-driven the new Model 3 and says that it is noticeably quieter inside, the doors close more solidly, and FSD works great). However, I don’t think the Model 3 qualifies as “Premier”; it’s a “Comfort”-class car. Uber still charged the originally quoted $190+ price despite not delivering a “Premier” car. I’m surprised that they haven’t been sued for this by an energetic class action lawyer. Uber doesn’t have a customer service phone number (some sort of AI chatbot instead for questions about charges), which means Uber has pocketed the extra cash for all similar downgrades unless a customer has gone to the trouble of disputing the charge with his/her/zir/their credit card bank.

Here’s part of Uber’s site:

From their 2024 ESG report:

They weren’t committed to keeping the Uber Premier appointment that they’d made, but they say they are committed to “racial equity”.

Rationally I can accept that incompetence and indifference to the customer are both possible (even plausible given the concentration and lack of competition in both U.S. airlines and U.S. ride sharing) without a percentage of corporate focus being devoted to DEI. But it is tough to avoid the temptation to search for “Company X diversity” after a negative customer experience. That makes me a hater?

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Given how quickly Tesla and BYD were built, how could a Honda-Nissan merger ever make sense?

by philg

Honda is in talks to merge with or purchase Nissan. I can’t figure out the rationale. In the old days maybe you’d say that it takes a long time to build factories, establish dealer networks, etc. and, therefore, Nissan’s assets might be valuable. But Tesla and BYD started from nothing and quickly built factories, company-owned stores (better than dealers), engineering, and everything else necessary for being in the car business. In any case, Honda doesn’t have to start from scratch in the car business because it is already well-established in the car business. If Nissan has some good people, Honda could try to hire them away and set them up within their proven-to-be-profitable structure.

What do we see below that Honda doesn’t make or couldn’t make?

The $120,000+ Nissan GT-R is kind of fun, but only about 1,000 are built each year.

More generally, given what Tesla and BYD have accomplished why would a car company ever want to buy another car company?

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Could Costco hire an all-Asian staff in order to make customers happy?

by philg

Today is the Costco shareholder meeting. The Board recommends against studying whether Costco’s race-/gender-/2SLGBTQQIA+-based discrimination programs (“DEI”) are harmful. Here’s their argument for continuing to discriminate, from the annual meeting notice:

And we believe (and member feedback shows) that many of our members like to see themselves reflected in the people in our warehouses with whom they interact.

I’m wondering how much discrimination is permissible based on customer preference in a 21st century American business. Suppose that “many” customers said that Asian cashiers worked faster and more reliably. Could Costco then refuse to hire non-Asians to work as cashiers? Back in the 20th century, companies were told that they couldn’t use the “customer preference” excuse to exclude Black employees. But the Costco Board and its superstar attorneys tell us that the “customer preference” excuse is usable for excluding at least some employees based on race.

Here’s what Grok thinks the employee mix should look like:

ChatGPT seems to have some issues with (1) racism, and (2) counting to four:

(All of ChatGPT’s highly capable and fast-working Costco cashiers appear to identify as white, including in previous answers to prompts.)

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A social justice warrior is out at Intel

by philg

A follow-up to Why wasn’t diversity Intel’s strength? (August)….

Pat Gelsinger, a vigorous Black Lives Matter warrior in 2020 (below), has “retired” at age 63 from the Intel CEO job, 17 years before he would be old enough to run for U.S. President.

Same guy a couple of months later in 2020 (CNBC):

VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger said at a CNBC @Work virtual event on Thursday that for any open position at the technology company, the hiring process will have to include consideration of both a woman and a minority candidate. … Previously, the company had in place a rule that no hiring process could be complete unless a woman or person of color was interviewed. Now the company will require hiring managers to consider at least one candidate from both backgrounds. “We’ve focused lots more on gender than race, and now we need to put emphasis on those areas together,” Gelsinger said at the CNBC event.

A 2021 Fast Company interview:

I am proud of where we’re at right now. My two biggest business units are run by women. My biggest technology leadership role, technology development, is run by a woman. That’s just unheard of in the tech industry. Also, four of my nine board members are females … So right now, overall, we’re pretty good. But I’m still not satisfied. It needs to be better. There are still areas where we have representation gaps. Our African American community, we’re not where we need to be. We have to keep working on those areas.

Part of his 2022 “Corporate Responsibility Letter”:

(there was no responsibility to keep up with AMD and TSMC?)

In 2022, he explained why God wants us to discriminate by skin color and gender ID:

Is Gelsinger a recent convert to the religion of diversity, equity, and inclusion? He shared Bill Gates’s hostility toward white males in 2018:

In retrospect I’m kind of amazed that shareholders couldn’t have sued Intel to force the board to fire this guy back in 2020 or 2021. Gelsinger plainly disclosed that his priorities were on the skin color and gender ID of workers and executives rather than on profits for shareholders or competitive advantage for products in the marketplace.

Separately, how is Intel Arrow Lake doing? The high-end 285K desktop CPU is out of stock everywhere so either they can’t make them or consumer demand is high. Supposedly there is a microcode update coming that will improve performance for gaming addicts. I am surprised that microcode updates are safe if done in the obvious way (written to EEPROM). What if the power is interrupted? Are these “updates” actually patches in which replacement or additional microcode is loaded during the boot process into volatile memory within the CPU chip? So it doesn’t matter if the process doesn’t complete because it will just happen again the next time the computer is booted?

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Why can’t supervisors and replacement workers unload container ships during the longshoremen’s strike?

by philg

When the typical business is hit by a strike it is able to continue operating at a reduced capacity via the use of supervisors and/or replacement workers (airlines are an exception due to FAA regulations; see “Unions and Airlines”). Why are Atlantic and Gulf Coast U.S. ports completely shut down by the International Longshoremen’s Association strike for a 77 percent wage increase to compensate them for the inflation that the Biden-Harris administration says does not exist (CBS; 77 percent is pretty close to the rise in the cost of buying a house during the Biden-Harris years, considering the increase in price and the increase in mortgage rates).

The port operators have offered a 50 percent wage increase to compensate workers for non-existent inflation and the strike relates to the 77 v. 50 number.

Today’s question is why ports are shut down. Managers aren’t part of a union. Why can’t the management/supervisory staff at the ports operate the cranes and unload container ships at a reduced rate compared to if a full staff were available? Continued operations at a reduced capacity is what happened after Ronald Reagan fired America’s striking unionized air traffic controllers (state-sponsored NPR).

Historically, American employers had the right to hire permanent replacement workers for striking union workers, though the Biden-Harris administration is trying to eliminate that right (source (2023)):

The law of the land for the last 60 years has permitted employers to permanently replace employees engaged in an economic strike, providing employers with the right to hire workers to continue business operations in response to a union’s use of its most potent economic weapon. In its decision in Hot Shoppes, Inc., 146 NLRB 802 (1964),the Board held that employers may lawfully hire permanent replacements and that this action is not inherently destructive of the right to strike under the National Labor Relations Act (“Act”), making the employer’s motive for hiring the replacements immaterial. Accordingly, an employer does not need to prove it had a business necessity when hiring permanent replacements or that the employer’s ability to continue operations during a strike required the hiring of the replacements. Rather, the GC has the burden of proving the employer violated the Act by permanently replacing strikers because of an “independent unlawful purpose.”

Even if Biden-Harris makes it illegal for the ports to hire permanent replacements, why can’t the ports operate with temporary replacements? The container cranes are highly automated, which has, in fact, been a big motivation for fighting between unions and management (the “workers” aren’t actually required for the “work” because robots do a better job at running the cranes).

It looks like ports are mostly automated in other parts of the world, e.g., China, Europe, and Central America (source):

But the U.S. does have some ports that you’d think could be operated by managers. From the same article:

Currently, only four out of 360 commercial ports in the U.S. have at least semi-automated terminals: Los Angeles, Long Beach, New York & New Jersey and Virginia.

Why wouldn’t NY/NJ and Virginia be up and running with managers staring at the monitors while the computers do all the real work?

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Follow-up to American Factory, Taiwan edition

by philg

Happy Labor Day to those who celebrate by working!

Back in 2020, I covered Netflix: American Factory, a documentary of what happens when Chinese glass-making experts try to train Americans to be useful and also what happens to foreign investors when Democrat politicians circle the investment. In case you missed it, the New York Times ran an interesting follow-up to this movie: “What Works in Taiwan Doesn’t Always in Arizona, a Chipmaking Giant Learns” (August 8, 2024).

TSMC modeled its facility in Phoenix on one at home. But bringing the company’s complex manufacturing process to America has been a bigger challenge than it expected.

“We keep reminding ourselves that just because we are doing quite well in Taiwan doesn’t mean that we can actually bring the Taiwan practice here,” said Richard Liu, the director of employee communications and relations at the site.

In recent interviews, 12 TSMC employees, including executives, said culture clashes between Taiwanese managers and American workers had led to frustration on both sides. TSMC is known for its rigorous working conditions. It’s not uncommon for people to be called into work for emergencies in the middle of the night. In Phoenix, some American employees quit after disagreements over expectations boiled over, according to the employees, some of whom asked not to be named because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

While it was under construction, the company sent American engineers to Tainan for training and to shadow their Taiwanese counterparts, observing TSMC’s all-hands-on-deck way of working up close.

Jefferson Patz, an engineer fresh off a master’s degree from the University of California, San Diego, went to Tainan in 2021 for 18 months of training shortly after he joined the company.

“Oh, my gosh, people work hard,” Mr. Patz said. He recalled that this initial impression had given him a strong sense of what it took to succeed in the industry.

After returning to Arizona, Mr. Patz said, employees were expected to pitch in with work outside their job descriptions because construction of the facility was behind schedule.

This approach did not sit well with everyone. Workers were required to do whatever was needed to finish the most pressing job, he said. Some of the American workers also found it difficult to spend a long stretch of time in Taiwan.

TSMC should be able to make this work simply by paying $2 million/year to each worker in order to get smart conscientious people from among the U.S. population of 335 million (or maybe 350 million if we count the undocumented more accurately), but that could be a painful hit to profits! Let’s check out the labor pool in Taiwan vs. Arizona. World Population Review:

The same source gives an average IQ for Arizona of 98, substantially lower than Taiwan’s average of 106 (I question the use of 5 digits of precision, but maybe someone with a higher IQ than mine prepared the above table). American average IQ is falling, so the spread between AZ and Taiwan will only get worse.

How about conscientiousness, the willingness to show up to work every day and try to do every step of a procedure correctly? That’s heritable and the Americans with the highest fertility are those who barely work (source; the high fertility of those earning $300,000+/year can be ignored on a population-wide basis because there aren’t a lot of those parents).

Maybe it won’t matter for profits how ill-suited the average American worker is to working in a state-of-the-art fab because TSMC will be so stuffed with U.S. tax dollars that they can pay to get the workers they need.

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What did you do to celebrate Black Business Month?

by philg

A display on August 9, 2024 at our local Bank of America in Jupiter, Florida:

Note that no other ethnic, racial, gender ID, or sexual preference group was explicitly featured by Bank of America in a rotating display. Their only focus for August, apparently, is Black Business Month.

Readers: Now that the month is nearly over, what did you do to celebrate?

American Airlines was running a “Black Film Festival” (no other ethnic or racial group was featured) on August 17, 2024, at least:

(The screen shot shows me trying to catch up on Florida literature with an audiobook of Miami Blues, also made into a movie with Alec Baldwin (holding a gun).)

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Diversity goes to space (but can’t get back home)

by philg

“NASA Decides to Bring [$4.3 billion Boeing] Starliner Spacecraft Back to Earth Without Crew” (nasa.gov):

NASA will return Boeing’s Starliner to Earth without astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams aboard the spacecraft, the agency announced Saturday. The uncrewed return allows NASA and Boeing to continue gathering testing data on Starliner during its upcoming flight home, while also not accepting more risk than necessary for its crew.

This isn’t unconditionally great news for the astronauts. From The Sky Below (book by an astronaut):

my multiple spaceflights and spacewalks mean the likelihood of spinal trouble is almost as inevitable as an overloaded, rickety Jenga tower toppling over into a ragged heap. In space, the spine straightens and the intervertebral discs swell when not being compressed by gravity,

(the author spent about 8 weeks total in space)

Let’s check in with Boeing…

Each member of our global team brings something uniquely valuable to Boeing, and we grow stronger when everyone has an opportunity to contribute. Boeing remains committed to creating a culture of inclusion that attracts and retains the world’s top talent, and inspires every teammate to do their best work and grow their careers.

It turns out, though, that not all members of the global team are equally valuable. Black team members are apparently more valuable than non-Black ones. Boeing’s “Aspirations and Progress” section sets out “Increase the Black representation rate in the U.S. by 20%.” as the number one goal to achieve by 2025. Lower down on the page: “Fair360, a world leader in using data to assess companies’ commitment to inclusion, ranked Boeing 9th out of more than 160 companies reviewed.”

The “2024 Boeing Sustainability & Social Impact Report”:

We value diverse perspectives and continue to see more women and U.S. racial and ethnic minorities represented at nearly every level of the company compared with a year ago.

The company’s “Allies spreading awareness” page:

Their stories are part of a series celebrating the perspectives and accomplishments from LGBTQIA+ employees and allies across Boeing.

When her oldest child, Asher, recently came out as non-binary and embraced they/them/their pronouns, the family’s main priority was to be supportive and learn as much as they could about gender identity.

Elizabeth also looked into health insurance benefits and was able to connect Asher with Boeing’s Gender Affirmation Team, which provided information and resources to help Asher and family navigate through the transition process.

For Maggie Duckworth, advocacy for the transgender community is also a key component of her life. … The software engineer met her partner more than 20 years ago at an anime convention. The two bonded over the animated art where gender fluid characters were commonly a part of storylines. Later, Maggie’s partner, Ryn, came out as non-binary and now uses the pronouns they/them/theirs. “For a long time they were struggling with defining who they were,” Maggie said. “Then Ryn realized that they were (gender) neutral and we both felt relieved because we had found a definition.”

“I want to be an example for women in aerospace”:

One of [Chantel’s] main objectives in this role is to increase the representation of women in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) careers—a goal of personal significance.

If a person who identifies as a “woman” works at Boeing, one of the biggest tasks for which she is paid by Boeing shareholders is getting more “women” to go into STEM careers, regardless of whether those careers are at Boeing?

The most exciting part:

For the first time in her 8-year career, Chantel, a woman of color, reports to a director who is also a woman of color. Chantel believes she can support continued progress by ensuring other women in STEM see fulfilling career paths for themselves.

Her efforts help support our equity, diversity and inclusion commitment. In 2021, women’s representation at Boeing increased to 23.2% in the United States and 24.6% internationally. And representation for women of color at Boeing has increased at executive levels and throughout the company.

So the news isn’t all bad with Boeing. Diversity is up substantially year-over-year both right now and that was also true back in 2021.

The company’s most recent “feature stories” about the product:

Related:

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