Donald Trump is a dictator and the U.S. is the worst place in the world for Coronaplague…

… however, according to M.I.T. and Harvard, it is essential for the welfare of foreigners that they stay here in the U.S. to be governed by Donald Trump and subjected to an unmitigated textbook-style coronaplague. See “Harvard and MIT sue Trump administration over online-only instruction for foreign students in the US” (CNN):

Harvard and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology on Wednesday sued the Trump administration over its guidance not allowing foreign students to take online-only courses in the US this fall semester.

Harvard announced earlier this week that all course instruction will be delivered online, including for students living on campus. In a statement provided to CNN, the university said the guidance stands to affect approximately 5,000 international students.

“The order came down without notice—its cruelty surpassed only by its recklessness. It appears that it was designed purposefully to place pressure on colleges and universities to open their on-campus classrooms for in-person instruction this fall, without regard to concerns for the health and safety of students, instructors, and others,” Harvard University President Larry Bacow said.

The lawsuit also underscores the challenge posed to students: “Just weeks from the start of the fall semester, these students are largely unable to transfer to universities providing on-campus instruction, notwithstanding ICE’s suggestion that they might do so to avoid removal from the country.”

If Trump is as bad as these folks say and the U.S. is an example of spectacular incompetence in managing the only thing that matters to humanity anymore (coronaplague), why wouldn’t the best thing for foreign students be an airlift back to relative coronasafety and government competence in their respective home countries?

(This is especially critical as we are informed by U.S. media that the typical victim of Covid-19 is a previously healthy teenager.)

A recent photo from a Robinson R44 of the empty Harvard campus:

(credit: my friend Tony)

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Why is it still impossible to buy N95 masks?

Americans in many states and/or cities are required by law to wear “masks” of some sort, but compliance seems to be spotty and competence yet spottier. The “mask” devolves into a saliva-soaked face rag that leaves at least the nose exposed, for example.

What about people who want to protect themselves, not simply pretend to protect others? We’re in Month 4 of Shutdown here in Maskachusetts. Why can’t we buy masks that would actually provide some protection, i.e., a paper N95 mask? Drugstores seem to have ample supplies of surgical-type masks, but I haven’t seen N95 masks anywhere. From the Home Depot site:

This medical supply site seems to have them at $8 each. This site charges $1.80 per mask (real 3M brand), but says to expect a 2-3 month wait.

The health care industry is obviously using a lot more of these than before, but is it really that difficult to make an N95 mask? Or perhaps the process of obtaining certification for a new supplier is lengthy?

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Priority for Students of Color in returning to public K-12 school

From the Educrats in Washington State: Reopening Washington
Schools 2020 District Planning Guide
. The phrase “students of color” occurs six times.

Good news for Rachel Dolezal: white students will be home driving parents crazy while “students of color” will enjoy in-person instruction and socializing with other students.

If that isn’t specific enough, “Prioritize face-to-face service for students that are most impacted by the loss of in-person services, including: … Students of color”

(“intersectionality” is involved, which presumably is a positive for the job market for PhDs in comparative victimhood)

I wonder if this is another good example of what Sweden has gained by just giving the finger to the coronavirus. Sweden isn’t pitting families of different skin colors against each other in competing for scarce slots in public schools.

Also, is this another example of a Constitutional right that Americans have lost due to the governor-declared emergencies? The Fourteenth Amendment was used to require school integration because of the Equal Protection Clause. How can states re-segregate their schools in light of the Supreme Court’s interpretation of this clause?

Related:

  • “N.Y.C. Schools, Nation’s Largest District, Will Not Fully Reopen in Fall” (NYT): Classroom attendance in September will be limited to only one to three days a week in an effort to continue to curb the outbreak, the mayor said. … The decision to opt for only a partial reopening, which is most likely the only way to accommodate students in school buildings while maintaining social distancing, may hinder hundreds of thousands of parents from returning to their pre-pandemic work lives, undermining the recovery of the sputtering local economy. [Wouldn’t the parents be better off moving to a state with (a) fully open schools, and (b) good Internet connectivity?]
  • “Research Shows Students Falling Months Behind During Virus Disruptions” (NYT): “When all of the impacts are taken into account, the average student could fall seven months behind academically, while black and Hispanic students could experience even greater learning losses, equivalent to 10 months for black children and nine months for Latinos, according to an analysis from McKinsey & Company, the consulting group.”
  • https://philip.greenspun.com/blog/2020/06/18/coronashutdown-versus-un-universal-declaration-of-human-rights/ (the UN says that children have the right to go to school, with no exceptions for a powerful teachers union or a state full of Shutdown Karens)
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(Corona)State of Maine

I just talked to a friend to see how badly he was suffering in Month 4 of quarantine at his oceanfront estate in Maine (see “Your lockdown may vary”). How was society up there doing?

Our politicians say all the same things as politicians in Massachusetts. Compliance and enforcement are non-existent. So everyone is happy. Real estate prices are up 20 percent over last year with people fleeing New York and Massachusetts.

What about schools for the fall? The local public schools have not made any announcements and are not promising anything.

Nobody wears a mask, despite the governor’s orders?

You can predict the mask situation by the demographic of the store. If it is a hardware or auto parts store, nobody working or shopping there will be wearing a mask. If it is a high-end bakery, everyone will be masked.

(People love to compare Sweden to nearby Norway and Finland and draw conclusions about the dramatic effects of government policy. Maine, despite having a reasonable-sized city (Portland), has only 1/20th the plague death rate of Maskachusetts (stats). Yet nobody tries to compare government policy in Maine versus Massachusetts and use any difference as an explanation for the difference in death rate.)

Portland from the Robinson R44 last year:

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Shutdown Karens throw rocks at Sweden

“Sweden Has Become the World’s Cautionary Tale” (NYT, today):

Its decision to carry on in the face of the pandemic has yielded a surge of deaths without sparing its economy from damage — a red flag as the United States and Britain move to lift lockdowns.

This is what has happened: Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden’s economy has fared little better.

“They literally gained nothing,” said Jacob F. Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “It’s a self-inflicted wound, and they have no economic gains.”

The elevated death toll resulting from Sweden’s approach has been clear for many weeks. What is only now emerging is how Sweden, despite letting its economy run unimpeded, has still suffered business-destroying, prosperity-diminishing damage, and at nearly the same magnitude of its neighbors.

Elevated death toll? Compared to what? The New York Times never lets on that IHME forecasts roughly the same death rate from Covid-19 for the U.S. and Sweden through October 1. They also don’t compare Sweden’s death rate to the U.K.’s (in Month 4 of shutdown?), Belgium, or Spain!

How do we know that the Church of Shutdown is a religion? The parishioners at the New York Times look at the graph of daily deaths in the US, the UK, and Sweden, smoothed over 7 days for reporting, and adjusted for population. The Religion of Shutdown tells them that it is obvious from these apparently similar curves which of these countries should be considered a “cautionary tale”.

“They literally gained nothing,” says the economist quoted in the article? This is a perfect illustration of the old adage that an economist is someone who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing. How about this for a partial list:

  • Swedish children gained three months of education while American children were imprisoned in crummy apartments. Swedish children gained three months of playing with friends on playgrounds while American children were watching TV.
  • Swedish adults gained four months of work experience while Americans are now in Month 4 of cashing government checks, drinking alcohol, and smoking marijuana from the “essential” marijuana stores.
  • Swedish adults gained four months of time at the gym while Americans gained four months of being sedentary except for trips to the fridge every 15 minutes.
  • Swedes of all ages gained four months of socializing with other humans. That’s valuable if your goal as a human is something more than staring at a screen.
  • Swedes of all ages gained not having to watch people come out of lockdown to riot, loot, and burn their cities.
  • Swedes of all ages gained the advantage of a society in which fewer people hate each other. With no mask law, people can’t hate each other for mask rule interpretation. Without a belief that government policy will determine the outcome of a viral epidemic, the Swedes can’t hate those who voted for a different political party.

The article includes a portrait of the unmasked unrepentant infidels (from the perspective of the Church of Shutdown):

Photos like these will be the modern Rake’s Progress?

With the same death rate plus all of the educational, developmental, inequality, unemployment, and social ills of six months of lockdown (or partial lockdown), if Sweden is a “cautionary tale” what is the U.S.?

Some stats…

Sweden reported 0 Covid-19 deaths on Sunday and Monday to the WHO and 13 today. That averages to 4 Covid-19 deaths in a country of 10 million people. Here in the success story of Maskachusetts (population 7 million), there are roughly 15 deaths per day on a steady basis (July 7 report). Massachusetts will exceed 8,000 total deaths by tomorrow. Sweden is at 5,433 (i.e., less than half the total death rate, adjusted for population).

Swedish ICUs are emptying out:

This data nerd says that Stockholm reached “herd immunity” quite some time ago (though, remember that herd immunity was not a goal of the Swedish policy, but only a byproduct). Given how people tweaked their behavior, e.g., trying to stand farther apart and avoiding mass gatherings, the herd immunity threshold, he claims, is when roughly 6-10 percent of the population comes up positive on the antibody tests (remember that not everyone is susceptible to begin with).

Related:

  • “Big differences in mortality in spring 2020 based on country of birth”: People born in Somalia, Syria and Iraq, who are likely to be weakly established in Sweden, had a marked increase in mortality compared to people born in Sweden, the EU, the Nordic countries or North America in the spring of 2020 (Figure 2). A similar picture, but offset in time, is seen even if Stockholm County is excluded (not shown). In the age group 40–64 years, in March – May 2020, 122 deaths occurred in immigrant groups that are likely to be weakly established in Sweden, compared with an average of 38.5 in 2016–2019, a death rate of 220 percent. In the same age group, 1 percent lower mortality was seen among people born in Sweden, the EU, the Nordic countries or North America. Among those over the age of 65, there was the same excess mortality in the group with probable weak establishment (220 percent), but also some mortality (19 percent) among those born in Sweden, the EU, the Nordic countries or North America. (From Google Translate; the gist is that Sweden’s numbers may look uglier than some neighbors’ because Sweden has more low-skill migrants and these migrants have off-the-charts Covid-19 mortality.)
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The (settled) science of coronaplague

From Massachusetts General Hospital (“the Massive Genital” to some of my physician friends), a 50-page summary of what is known regarding Covid-19 risks and mitigation in schools. A fwe excerpts:

Based on early data, schools do not appear to have played a major role in COVID-19 transmission. Based on data at this time, transmission from students to staff and from students to other students (especially younger students) appears to be rare, and will likely be even more rare with appropriate risk mitigation strategies.

(conclusion after reading the above: let’s keep schools closed anyway! #AbundanceOfCaution)

#MasksWork:

There are few data about mask use, specifically in schools. The available data about masks usually come from a combination of studies on COVID, SARS, and MERS. There are no data about the combined effectiveness of masks plus face shields plus physical distancing

HEPA filters like those mandated by Governor/Hero Cuomo will save us:

Low-efficiency filters (e.g., less than MERV 8 according to ASHRAE Standard 52.2 or less than ePM2.5 20% according to ISO 16890-1:2016) are very unlikely to make a difference. Of note, high-efficiency filters may be counter-productive since frequent filter changes are needed and a high-pressure drop filter can also diminish the amount of air supplied into the environment, making the filter less effective

I.e., American schools will never get organized to change the HEPA filters often enough.

Also.. don’t ride the bus and don’t sing on the bus!

And, in the ongoing debate about whether to follow advice from Dr. Donald J. Trump, M.D. … “Treatment with Hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin, and Combination in Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19” (International Journal of Infectious Diseases):

According to a protocol-based treatment algorithm, among hospitalized patients, use of hydroxychloroquine alone and in combination with azithromycin was associated with a significant reduction in-hospital mortality compared to not receiving hydroxychloroquine.

How do experts characterize a falling death curve?

The United States is in an acceleration phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Currently there is no known effective therapy or vaccine for treatment of SARS-CoV-2, highlighting urgency around identifying effective therapies.

Here’s the acceleration (nytimes):

Results?

Of 2,541 patients, with a median total hospitalization time of 6 days (IQR: 4-10 days), median age was 64 years (IQR:53-76 years), 51% male, 56% African American, with median time to follow-up of 28.5 days (IQR:3-53). Overall in-hospital mortality was 18.1% (95% CI:16.6%-19.7%); by treatment: hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin, 157/783 (20.1% [95% CI: 17.3%-23.0%]), hydroxychloroquine alone, 162/1202 (13.5% [95% CI: 11.6%-15.5%]), azithromycin alone, 33/147 (22.4% [95% CI: 16.0%-30.1%]), and neither drug, 108/409 (26.4% [95% CI: 22.2%-31.0%])​. … Hydroxychloroquine provided a 66% hazard ratio reduction, and hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin 71% compared to neither treatment (p < 0.001).

Maybe we have to dig into the paper for adjustments, but it looks as though a higher percentage of those on hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin died (20.1 percent) compared to those only on hydroxychloroquine (13.5 percent).

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Test and trace revisited

Back in May, I asked “The government can’t find the 22 million undocumented, but it will find and track every coronafected human inside the U.S.?”

And what about those 22 million soon-to-be-Americans whose documentation is not quite in order. Do they answer the phone and open the door to the friendly government testing and tracing agents? Do they supply a biological sample so their DNA can be extracted and parked in a database? Do they give the government agent a list of all places visited, with dates and times, and the names of everyone else who was there?

According to the reader comments on “Why won’t the Europeans let in Americans who test negative for coronavirus?” we have no reliable test for determining coronavirus infection.

Putting these together… “New York county issues subpoenas to people refusing to talk to contact tracers” (The Hill):

“We are not receiving the necessary cooperation when we contact those who are positive for COVID-19 or those who had been at some of these gatherings,” Rupert said. “My staff has been told that a person does not wish to or have to speak to my disease investigators. They hang up, they deny being at the party, even though we have found their name from another party attendee, or a parent provides us with the information.”

“Many do not answer their cell phones and do not call back,” she added. “Sometimes parents answer for their adult children and promise that they have been home consistently, when they have not been. This must stop.”

“Unfortunately I am now forced by these circumstances to send subpoenas to the individuals who are required to cooperate with us,” Rupert said. “Failure to comply will be costly: $2,000 per day.”

He said he will not “have the health of our county compromised because of ignorance, stupidity, or obstinance.”

Like our health care system, the court system is designed to deal intensively with one case at a time, not with thousands or millions of similar cases. How is a litigation approach to contact tracing going to work?

Below, the Federal Courthouse in Los Angeles and, across the street, the usual California homeless encampment (residents of which receive heaps of thoughts and prayers from those driving by in their brand-new Teslas!). From a February expert witness trip.

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Looks like I picked the wrong week to sell stock in a coronavirus testing company (Harvard)

“Harvard will allow some students on campus this fall so long as they take coronavirus tests every 3 days” (CNBC):

Tuition will not be lowered from $49,653, although students enrolled remotely will not pay room and board fees.

Harvard said it hopes to invite seniors to campus for the spring semester assuming conditions allow the college to maintain 40% residential density.

Students will have to undergo Covid-19 testing upon arrival and every three days afterward.

Any exceptions in Victimhood Nation?

Upperclassmen will be able to petition to return if they don’t have sufficient technology at home or have challenging family circumstances.

Let the Victim Narratives compete!

Where will they get all of the swabs?!?

Harvard Yard on April 1:

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Official Newspaper of the Shutdown Karens may have been a little too successful

The New York Times has been a leader in stoking coronaplague panic (see “Power of the Media to Shape Coronaplague Beliefs” for an example of how the newspaper spun a declining death curve into an all-new reason to panic, for example).

Now they’ve added some articles about the unfortunate consequences of a society where nobody is willing to work.

Example 1 is “In the Covid-19 Economy, You Can Have a Kid or a Job. You Can’t Have Both.”:

The long-term losses [from unionized teachers being unwilling to work] for professional adults will be incalculable, too, and will disproportionately affect mothers. Working mothers all over the country feel that they’re being pushed out of the labor force or into part-time jobs as their responsibilities at home have increased tenfold.

So the newspaper’s goal of keeping the U.S. shutdown forever conflicts with the newspaper’s goal of helping the largest American victimhood class: women.

Good news or bad news, depending on who you are…

The wealthy win. Again.
Without a doubt, reopening schools is a colossal undertaking. There are no easy solutions to finding enough space for students to socially distance, ensuring teachers and staff are protected, adding more sinks and cleaning staff, and implementing widespread temperature checks, testing and contact tracing.

Reopening schools is so “colossal” that nearly all of the European countries have managed to do it?

But after nearly four months since the lockdowns began — four months of working all hours, at remarkable stress levels, while our children have gone without play dates and playgrounds and all of the other stimuli that help them thrive — most parents have been shocked to find that state governments don’t have any creative or even plausible solutions.

She doesn’t like the politicians she voted for in the New York State government! Maybe there is a way to blame Donald Trump?

For parents who cannot simply sort it out, our national response feels more like a dystopian novel where only the wealthy get to limit their exposure and survive the pandemic unscathed. Allowing workplaces to reopen while schools, camps and day cares remain closed tells a generation of working parents that it’s fine if they lose their jobs, insurance and livelihoods in the process. It’s outrageous, and I fear if we don’t make the loudest amount of noise possible over this, we will be erased from the economy.

My friends who are locked down on their oceanfront estates are not complaining so much!

Example 2 is “Colleges Face Rising Revolt by Professors”:

Most universities plan to bring students back to campus. But many of their teachers are concerned about joining them.

Could it be because professors often read the New York Times?

A Cornell University survey of its faculty found that about one-third were “not interested in teaching classes in person,” one-third were “open to doing it if conditions were deemed to be safe,” and about one-third were “willing and anxious to teach in person,” said Michael Kotlikoff, Cornell’s provost.

At Penn State, an open letter signed by more than 1,000 faculty members demands that the university “affirm the autonomy of instructors in deciding whether to teach classes, attend meetings and hold office hours remotely, in person or in some hybrid mode.” The letter also asks for faculty members to be able to change their mode of teaching at any time, and not to be obligated to disclose personal health information as a condition of teaching online.

Many younger professors have concerns as well, including about underlying health conditions, taking care of children who might not be in school full-time this fall, and not wanting to become a danger to their older relatives. Some are angry that their schools are making a return to classrooms the default option. And those who are not tenured said they felt especially vulnerable if they asked for accommodations.

There’s a great photo of a 35-year-old tatooed literature professor. Polynesians got tattoos to show their bravery and resilience to infection. Now the tattooed run away from a 0.01% risk of death?

Yale will be pocketing full tuition and delivering the Khan Academy experience:

Yale said on Wednesday that it would bring only a portion of its students back to campus for each semester: freshmen, juniors and seniors in the fall, and sophomores, juniors and seniors in the spring. “Nearly all” college courses will be taught remotely, the university said, so that all students can enroll in them.

Here’s a guy who should be trying to emigrate to Sweden:

Joshua Wede, 40, a psychology professor at Penn State, argued that it was not possible to maintain a meaningful level of human interaction when students are wearing masks, sitting at least six feet apart and facing straight ahead.

Related:

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When does coronaplague stop being an emergency?

The Swedish epidemiologists, just as everyone else was shutting down, said “coronavirus is going to be with humanity maybe forever, just like influenza; can you stay shut down forever?”

Today’s question is whether the U.S. can have a permanent state of emergency based on the threat of coronaplague.

Examples:

Maybe we don’t like the new coronaplagued world, but at what point do we have to say “this is how life on Earth is; this is not an ’emergency'”?

Related:

  • April 17: Swedish MD/PhD says get used to coronavirus (and notes that, if influenza had been new in 2019, humanity would have panicked in exactly the same way that it panicked regarding coronavirus)
  • June 29: a different Swedish MD/PhD says get used to coronavirus…. Throughout it all, Tegnell has argued that the world is only in the first stage of dealing with a long, uncertain battle with Covid-19. That’s why Sweden’s strategy — keep much of society open, but train people to observe distancing guidelines — is the only realistic way to cope in the long run, he says.
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