The silver (and gold) lining of COVID-19

COVID-19 isn’t necessarily bad. From the NYT:

Lenox Hill, one of the city’s oldest and best-known hospitals, repeatedly billed patients more than $3,000 for the routine nasal swab test, about 30 times the test’s typical cost.

“It was shocking to see a number like that, when I’ve gotten tested before for about $135,” said Ana Roa, who was billed $3,358 for a test at Lenox Hill last month.

Ms. Roa’s coronavirus test bill is among 16 that The New York Times reviewed from the site. They show that Lenox Hill arrives at its unusually high prices by charging a large fee for the test itself — about six times the typical charge — and by billing the encounter as a “moderately complex” emergency room visit.

In one case, a family accrued $39,314 in charges for 12 tests this winter, all taken to fulfill requirements for returning to work or school. In another, an asymptomatic patient walked in because she saw the banner outside and wanted a test after traveling. Her insurance was charged $2,963.

Patient bills show that at least one additional hospital owned by Lenox Hill’s parent group, Northwell Health, has charged emergency room fees to patients at a mass testing site.

Overall, a system in which a river of cash flows from Washington, D.C. favors those already big enough to hire the smartest people to navigate the system. “Some of America’s wealthiest hospital systems ended up even richer, thanks to federal bailouts” (Washington Post):

As the crisis crushed smaller providers, some of the nation’s richest health systems thrived, reporting hundreds of millions of dollars in surpluses after accepting huge grants for pandemic relief

Last May, Baylor Scott & White Health, the largest nonprofit hospital system in Texas, laid off 1,200 employees and furloughed others as it braced for the then-novel coronavirus to spread. The cancellation of lucrative elective procedures as the hospital pivoted to treat a new and less profitable infectious disease presaged financial distress, if not ruin. The federal government rushed $454 million in relief funds to help shore up its operations.

But Baylor not only weathered the crisis, it thrived. By the end of 2020, Baylor had accumulated an $815 million surplus, $20 million more than it had in 2019, creating a 7.5 percent operating margin that would be higher than most hospitals’ profits in the flushest of eras, a KHN examination of financial statements shows.

Like Baylor, some of the nation’s richest hospitals and health systems recorded hundreds of millions of dollars in surpluses after accepting a substantial share of the federal health-care bailout grants, their records show. Those included the Mayo Clinic, Pittsburgh’s UPMC and NYU Langone Health. But poorer hospitals — many serving rural and minority populations — got a tinier slice of the pie and limped through the year with deficits, downgrades of their bond ratings and bleak fiscal futures.

Wealthy hospitals also benefited because HHS used a broad definition of lost revenue. If a hospital earned less than in the year before, or simply less revenue than it had budgeted for, it could chalk up that difference to the pandemic and apply the relief funds to it.

When government gets bigger, only the big can thrive? If so, that’s a good argument for buying the S&P 500. If Congress adopts all of Presidents Biden and Harris’s proposals, government is on track to consume more than 50 percent of GDP. A big publicly traded company is going to be able to tap into the new veins of taxpayer gold much more effectively than a small business. Even if the U.S. economy stagnates, the big companies can thrive as they get a larger share of the fixed or shrinking pie.

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Maskachusetts: #Science says your backyard BBQ is illegal, but cram 150 people into a tent is okay if someone pays

An event planner whom we know says that she’s been super busy late. “People had planned backyard weddings, but they’re illegal so they’re going to pay to hold them here.” Her venue is a McMansion-sized house and a big tent with sides that come down during inclement weather. “I can have up to 150 people in the tent. It doesn’t make sense to me since a lot of these people have yards that are huge, but it is good for business.”

From the Maskachusetts State of Emergency page, which links to an appendix to Order #63:

Related:

  • Marie Antoinette of Covid: “Why is it a maximum of 10 people,” our hostess wondered, “regardless of the size of the house? Shouldn’t it be adjusted for square footage?”
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Coronascientists are the modern Aristotles?

Since the 17th century (see Francis Bacon), people who call themselves “scientists” have been using the scientific method:

  1. Make an observation.
  2. Ask a question.
  3. Form a hypothesis, or testable explanation.
  4. Make a prediction based on the hypothesis.
  5. Test the prediction.
  6. Iterate: use the results to make new hypotheses or predictions.

As previously documented here in this weblog, the “scientists” on whose advice politicians have ordered lockdowns, masks, etc. have consistently failed at Step 4 (making predictions). This failure, though, has been mostly invisible to the public due to the lack of media interest in going back a few weeks or months and comparing prediction to reality. In the rare cases when a false prediction, e.g., that the Czech Republic would have a low death rate due to masks and shutdown (in fact, the country ended up at #1 in the Covid death rate Olympics), is revisited it will be a “scientist” explaining how someone did something during the intervening period and that this action (or inaction) explains the current situation.

Is it Science when you can’t make accurate predictions, but you can tell a convincing tale? Yes! We just have to go back to 350 B.C. and Aristotelian physics. A lifted rock falls toward the earth because it is seeking its natural level. Air bubbles rise because the air seeks its natural place around the earth.

For concreteness (and remember that concrete seeks its natural level underneath highways!), let’s look at the official newspaper of those who #FollowScience. In “‘Life Has to Go On’: How Sweden Has Faced the Virus Without a Lockdown” (New York Times, April 28, 2020), the obvious comparison countries to Sweden were Ireland, Britain, and France. Once additional data are received, and it turns out Britain and France have higher COVID-19-tagged death rates than Sweden while Finland, Norway, and Denmark are outliers, the same scientifically minded folks will assert that Finland, Norway, and Denmark are the only sensible countries to which to compare Sweden and that it would be absurd to use France or Britain as a comparison. We did the same thing domestically. In March 2020, the experts predicted that locked-down Massachusetts would end up with a far lower death rate than Florida (and we should have, since only 14 percent of our population is over 65, compared to 20 percent in Florida). Now that data are available and Florida has suffered only 62 percent of the MA death rate, it is plain to scientists that comparing MA to FL would be nonsensical.

(The article has a funny-in-retrospect section:

From the first signs of the pandemic, the Swedish Public Health Authority decided that a lockdown would be pointless. “Once you get into a lockdown, it’s difficult to get out of it,” the country’s state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, said. “How do you reopen? When?”

California teachers’ union answer: never! To the Swedes who say “Life Has to Go On,” the majority of Americans say, resoundingly, “No, it does not!”)

A more recent example… “Iowa Is What Happens When Government Does Nothing” (December 3, 2020, Atlantic, owned by someone who got rich by marrying Steve Jobs and now advocates for unlimited migration into parts of the U.S. other than her own Palo Alto neighborhood):

The story of the coronavirus in the state is one of government inaction in the name of freedom and personal responsibility.

“In a lot of ways, Iowa is serving as the control group of what not to do,” Eli Perencevich, an infectious-disease doctor at the University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics, told me. Although cases dropped in late November—a possible result of a warm spell in Iowa—Perencevich and other public-health experts predict that the state’s lax political leadership will result in a “super peak” over the holidays, and thousands of preventable deaths in the weeks to come. “We know the storm’s coming,” Perencevich said. “You can see it on the horizon.”

Experts expect to see a spike in COVID-19 cases in the state roughly one week from now [December 10], two weeks after the Thanksgiving holiday. That spike will likely precede a surge in hospitalizations and, eventually, a wave of new deaths—maybe as many as 80 a day, Perencevich, the infectious-disease doctor, estimates. Add Christmas and New Year’s to the mix, and Iowans can expect to see nothing less than a tsunami, Perencevich says.

What actually did happen? From the NYT:

Cases peaked on November 13. Given that “cases” are subject to much human whim, e.g., whether people are fed into PCR machines or not, let’s look at deaths:

What happened to the predicted “tsunami” of death after Christmas and New Year’s gatherings? Deaths peaked on December 15. a month after the “case” peak and, thus far, have failed to reach that level again.

Readers: What do you think? If Aristotle can be a great “scientist” despite an inability to predict projectile trajectories or planetary orbits, is it also reasonable to call the coronascientists great despite their inability to predict the likely impact of coronavirus?

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How many people will die from having sat around the house for a year?

What is the most sensible scientifically informed response to a virus that attacks the obese and unfit? Sit at home next to the fridge for a year. Could this kill us? “Inactivity Drives 1 in 14 Deaths Globally, New Data Suggest” (Medscape, March 31):

The high cost of a sedentary lifestyle just became a bit more evident ― a new global study shows that inactivity drives up to 8% of noncommunicable diseases and mortality.

Physical inactivity, defined as engaging in less than 150 minutes of moderate-intensity or 75 minutes of vigorous-intensity physical activity per week, is estimated to have caused 7.2% (95% CI, 5.4 – 9.0) of all-cause deaths and 7.6% (95% CI, 6.1 – 9.3) of cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths, according to investigators led by Peter T. Katzmarzyk, PhD, associate executive director for population and public health sciences, Pennington Biomedical Research Center, Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

Note that the study was done using 2016 data. See “Physical inactivity and non-communicable disease burden in low-income, middle-income and high-income countries” (BMJ)

What about the expectations that Americans would die from the disruption in non-Covid health care ordered by governors? “The Untold Toll — The Pandemic’s Effects on Patients without Covid-19” (NEJM, June 2020) had anecdotes, but no numbers. “Surge in Advanced Cancers Follows COVID-19 Into 2021” (MedPage Today, March 31, 2021) offers some survey data:

Two-thirds of radiation oncologists said new patients more often have advanced-stage disease at their initial clinic visit as compared with prior years. Consistent with data from multiple other sources, three-fourths of respondents said patients have skipped routine cancer screening, and two-thirds said COVID has interrupted treatment for existing patients.

“What we have learned one year into the COVID-19 pandemic is that radiation oncologists continue to see the harmful effects of the pandemic on our patients,” said Thomas J. Eichler, MD, chair of ASTRO’s board of directors, during a webinar to discuss the survey findings. “The data are clear that people with cancer are facing additional burdens in these difficult times.”

(bonus points to this doc for including the phrase “in these times”)

The same publication reminds us that feeling safe is not just about Covid-19. The director of abortion services at a clinic in Bangor, Maine writes “It’s Time for You to Be More Inclusive — Yes, You.”:

Small steps to support transgender patients go a long way in their healthcare

I recently saw a new patient seeking help addressing substance abuse issues. It was our first time meeting, so when I entered the exam room, I introduced myself with my name and my pronouns, as I always do. Before I even offered any advice or asked a question, the patient’s face lit up with a smile. She explained that she was a transgender woman, and hearing me introduce myself with my pronouns was a huge relief, because it showed her that I would treat her with respect.

She quickly opened up to me, describing how she was grappling with a host of challenges and stresses that were made even worse because other people in her life — including other doctors — didn’t understand, didn’t respect, or outright rejected her identity.

Something as simple as including your pronouns when you introduce yourself can indicate that you are an ally and contribute to a sense of safety and inclusion.

I say that I provide abortions, prenatal care, birth control or other resources to pregnant people, not just pregnant women, because all people deserve the right to make their own decisions about if, when, or how they want to have children, without facing judgement.

Separately, if there is a person on this planet who can get through a winter in Bangor, Maine without drinking heavily, consuming drugs, and considering a gender change, I would love to meet him/her/zir/them.

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We now know the price of freedom: $0

Continuing the Passover-Freedom theme… what is the actual price tag that Americans put on freedom? “The Curious Case of Florida’s Pandemic Response” (Atlantic) suggests that the value is $0.

To the extent that winning a pandemic is possible, Florida seemed to be winning the pandemic.

(the author does not consider the possibility that Floridians did not enter the COVID Olympics)

Governor Ron DeSantis bragged that Florida drew a straight flush of pandemic outcomes: “open schools, comparatively low unemployment, and per capita COVID mortality below the national average.”

But the closer I looked, the more holes I found in the simple pro-Florida narrative.

Yes, Florida is seeing falling COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. But so is just about everywhere else. And its overall pandemic performance is just about typical.

As far as I can tell, though, it didn’t. At 4.8 percent, its unemployment rate is 18th in the country, and not meaningfully different from that of the median states, South Carolina and Virginia, at 5.3 percent. Real-time data tracking state spending and employment show that Florida is doing, again, no better than average. Compared with January 2020, its consumer spending is down 1 percent, which is right in line with the national average. Its small-business revenue is down about 30 percent—again, almost exactly the national average. These statistics may be missing something. But the national narrative of an exceptionally white-hot Florida economy doesn’t match the statistical record of its performance.

What this nation desperately needs is low-skill immigration so that we have lots more people to house:

Since 2012, Miami home prices have increased by 94 percent, nearly the exact same as those in Los Angeles in that time. Prices are soaring as inventory melts away; Florida’s active listings fell by 50 percent last year, and it’s not doing enough to keep up with demand.

A rare moment of checking to see whether coronascience has any predictive value:

In 2020, smart media figures and scientists predicted that COVID-19 would especially ravage Florida, given its open economy and elderly population. They were wrong. Why? Did Florida just get lucky? Is this mostly about the salutary benefits of the outdoors, or the coronavirus’s sensitivity to heat and humidity? Do strict lockdowns simply fail the cost-benefit analysis? The answer to all three questions may be yes.

What’s most interesting to me is that the author implicitly values the freedoms to walk out of one’s door, walk outside without a mask, meet friends at a restaurant, host a party at one’s house, etc. at $0. If two people, one confined to his/her/zir/their home by a governor’s executive order and one free to send children to school, go to work, play a sport, socialize, have the same amount of money they are equally well off. So it makes sense to look at the statistics gathered by economists and pronounce a state (or a society) a success or failure based on those statistics. (We also see this applied to Sweden; people will look at a list of countries ranked by COVID-19-tagged deaths per capita and note Sweden’s position without pointing out that it avoided the lockdowns, masquerades, etc.)

From Wellington, Florida… (Why does the realtor rank “Pool” above “Hangar”?!?!)

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Both non-white residents of Vermont can now get a COVID vaccine

From the Vermont Department of Public Health:

If you or anyone in your household identifies as Black, Indigenous, or a person of color (BIPOC), including anyone with Abenaki or other First Nations heritage, all household members who are 16 years or older can sign up to get a vaccine.

A little more detail on this government program …

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We ran but could not hide: U.S. deaths in 2020 were 16 percent higher than in 2019

TLDR: If we denied children a year of school and spent $trillions, shouldn’t we have something to show for that?

The CDC sped up its tally of deaths in 2020 and now says that American deaths in 2020 were 16 percent higher than in 2019 (CNBC). COVID-19 is now highlighted as the third leading cause of death. If we adjust for U.S. population growth (somewhat difficult to assess because of the undocumented), that’s perhaps a 15 percent higher death rate.

Considering the loss of a year of education for American children, the loss of liberty for American adults, and $trillions in tax dollars flushed down the toilet, this seems like a spectacular failure. While our state governors issued orders to residents and Americans waited for Dr. Fauci to tell them whether it was safe to roast a turkey, Sweden continued to live within its existing framework of laws and customs, e.g., sending children to school, adults to the gym and social life, etc. Swedes did not don the hijab of the Church of Shutdown for hours each day. Sweden ended up with 10 percent more deaths than in 2019 (Statista; note that 2019 seems to have been an unusually death-free year in Sweden and also that, due to population growth, the 2020 death rate was, in fact, lower than the death rate in 2010). Sweden also has a growing population, so a total higher than 10 percent might translate to a rate that is 9 percent higher.

Also from the CNBC article:

It typically takes researchers 11 months after the end of the calendar year to investigate “certain causes of death and to process and review data.” While the daily total Covid death figures reported by the CDC are timely, they can underestimate the actual number of deaths because of “incomplete or delayed reporting.”

For those who believe that humans are in charge of the coronavirus, I imagine that the take-away from these data will be to double down on shutdowns and masks. The assumption will be that, absent our heroic sacrifices, deaths in the U.S. would have been 300 percent higher in 2020 than in 2019, so holding the increase to only 16 percent demonstrates how effective shutdowns and masks are. That masked-and-locked California and wide-open Florida are right next to each other in states ranked by Covid-19 death rate (

) will not be cause to question the assumption that masks and lockdowns are highly effective. (Note that California’s COVID-19 death rate is substantially higher than Florida’s if you consider the over-65 population that is actually vulnerable to COVID-19. Florida has roughly 50% more seniors as a percentage of its population.)

Finally, let’s not forget that our 2020 aggregate deaths also include deaths caused by the shutdown, e.g., people who didn’t get the cardiology procedures that they would have had, extra drug overdoses, etc.

Readers who love masks and shutdowns: Given that deaths in 2020 were 16 percent higher than in 2019, how many American lives do you think were actually “saved” compared to if state governors and local government had done nothing (so we’d still have had Trump funding the vaccines, the CDC messing up initial testing, etc., but there would have been no shutdowns, no masks, and kids would have been in school; we still would have had media hysteria, so presumably a lot of the elderly/vulnerable and elite would have hidden in bunkers voluntarily). We’re fatter than the Swedes and COVID-19 loves to kill the fat, but plenty of Swedes are also overweight. (But don’t count the 20 lbs. that people gained during the year that their governors ordered them to spend next to the fridge!)

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Impending Coronadoom for Minnesota, forecast versus reality

Americans are currently living under a forecast of “impending doom” from our CDC Director. Let’s review how folks in Minnesota reacted when their doom was forecast by scientists.

From March 25, 2020, “Governor Walz Issues Stay at Home Order for Minnesotans”:

Modeling released today by the Minnesota Department of Health and University of Minnesota predicts that more than 70,000 Minnesotans could die from COVID-19 if we take no action. The Governor’s two-week order to stay home is forecasted to significantly slow the spread of COVID-19 and allow the state time to make key preparations for the pandemic.

14 days to flatten the curve!

A year later, Matt Malkus looked at this.

Over the past 12 months, nearly 7,000 people in Minnesota actually did die with or from COVID-19, 0.12 percent of the estimated 5.7 million population (though not even Yale knows how many undocumented Americans live in America). So if we believe the model estimate of 70,000 dead, we could say that the cower-in-place keep-schools-closed-for-a-year strategy worked! How does the 0.12 percent death rate compare to what happened in give-the-finger-to-the-virus Sweden, from which many Minnesotans can trace their ancestry? This list of countries by COVID-19 death rate puts Sweden at a 0.13 percent COVID death rate (Sweden automatically tags anyone with a positive PCR test as a “COVID death”).

(As in Massachusetts, Minnesota does not include deaths by age or age group on their dashboard. Only “cases” are published and therefore a reader is left with the impression that COVID-19 primarily afflicts young and middle-aged Minnesotans:

if you had to guess the median age of a COVID-19 death from this chart you might pick 38 (it was 82 in Massachusetts before the data were pulled from the dashboard). Where Minnesota provides comprehensive charts, though, is in “COVID-19 Data by Race/Ethnicity”:

COVID-19 is exposing what has always been true: racism is pervasive and persistent. … We know that communities of color and Indigenous communities don’t need data to verify their experience. … In developing the dashboard, we knew it was important to provide descriptions that accompany the data to provide context so that false information and misunderstandings do not perpetrate harmful rhetoric and racial disparities.

For those prejudiced whites who might try to avoid their Latinx brothers, sisters, and binary resisters as carriers of disease… the Minnesota government anti-racism specialists helpfully explain that “Latinx Minnesotans are testing positive for COVID-19 at nearly 3 times the rate of white Minnesotans.”)

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Were coronalockdowns good preparation for sending humans to Mars?

In the dark BC age it was thought that human psychology presented a significant barrier to human exploration of Mars. Humans were social animals who could never tolerate being locked into a small space for seven months, unable to venture out into a hostile and dangerous environment.

But, thanks to young people having meekly surrendered what had previously been considered liberties, we can now draw from a pool of tens of millions of people who spent an entire year in a tiny apartment, often entirely alone, either unable to venture outside or afraid to do so. Perhaps some of them suffered reduced mental health from being sedentary and watching a screen 24/7. But for those who sailed through… this is the ideal pool from which to draw candidates for a Mars mission, no?

The red planet:

(okay, it’s Jordan, 2012, and now apparently open for visitors)

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CDC Director: Impending Doom for the mostly-vaccinated U.S.

From state-sponsored media (NPR) yesterday, “CDC Director Fears ‘Impending Doom’ If U.S. Opens Too Quickly”:

In an emotional plea during the White House COVID-19 Response Team briefing on Monday, the CDC chief, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, described a feeling of “impending doom.”

The cause of her concern? A rising number of coronavirus cases in the United States. The most recent seven-day average is just below 60,000 cases per day – a 10% increase compared with the previous week.

Hospitalizations are up, too: about 4,800 admissions per day over the last week, up from an average 4,600 per day in the previous seven-day period. And deaths, which tend to lag cases and hospitalizations, have also begun to rise: increasing nearly 3%, to a seven-day average of about 1,000 per day.

I wonder which states she could be talking about?

“We’re in the life and death race with a virus that is spreading quickly, with cases rising again,” Biden said at the White House on Monday afternoon. “New variants are spreading and sadly some of the reckless behavior we’ve seen on television over the past few weeks means more cases are to come in the weeks ahead.”

Our greatest scientist:

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, agreed. “If we open up completely now, that is premature, given the level of infection” currently seen in the U.S., Fauci said. He added that even as the warm weather gives us the urge “to just cut loose, we’ve just got to hang in there a bit longer.” The likely reason for the uptick in cases, he said, is that states are opening up too quickly.

At first glance, a forecast of impending doom makes sense. However bad things were in the past, they can only get worse. Sweden gave the finger to the coronavirus and now only 99.87 percent of Swedes remain alive (see also Sweden will have a lower death rate in 2020 than it had in 2010). But the virus that killed 0.13 percent of Swedes attacked a population that was initially uninfected and unvaccinated. The doomsayer’s own agency estimates that roughly half of Americans have already had COVID-19. And the NPR article says that most of the Americans who are potentially vulnerable to dying from COVID-19 have already been vaccinated:

Among seniors, 73% have now received at least their first dose. Among all U.S. adults, 36% have received at least one dose. And more than 50 million Americans – nearly one in five adults — are fully vaccinated.

The CDC says that the vaccines are 90 percent effective (new paper). The CDC says that COVID-19 is “involved” in deaths primarily among those 65 and over:

(Biology students should note that #Science says it is “All Sexes” and not “Both Sexes”.)

How do we combine all of the above into “impending doom”? We have immunity from infection + immunity among the older/vulnerable from vaccines + #science saying that vaccines are 90% effective = doom.

Less dramatically, how can all of the above combine to yield the rising hospitalization and death rates described in the article?

Related… the CDC itself says that the vaccines don’t work well enough to exempt the vaccinated from COVID-19 testing on returning to the U.S.:

(Maybe the fear of letting a vaccinated, yet COVID-19-positive, person into a country that has more than 60,000 new “cases” (positive PCR tests) is that the traveler will bring a radical variant to our shores? But if the variant is truly radical, wouldn’t a standard PCR test come back negative anyway?)

And from our science-following leader, “Biden Pushes Mask Mandate as C.D.C. Director Warns of ‘Impending Doom’” (NYT):

President Biden, facing a rise in coronavirus cases around the country, called on Monday for governors and mayors to reinstate mask mandates as the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned of “impending doom” from a potential fourth surge of the pandemic.

Masks worked for the Czech Republic, Slovenia, and Slovakia, so they will make all the difference here…

If the forecast of “doom” has you rethinking your migration-via-Cirrus-or-Bonanza… “Psaki: Biden, Harris fly private, don’t need to follow CDC travel suggestions” (New York Post, yesterday):

President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris don’t need to worry about flouting Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommendations against nonessential travel, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Monday.

The reason: They both fly private.

Psaki made the comments after being asked at her daily press briefing about the commander-in-chief’s recent trips amid continued advisories from the health agency against traveling — even if fully vaccinated.

“I would say that the president travels, as does the vice president, on a private plane. That is the purview of every president and vice president throughout American history,” the press secretary said of Air Force One and Two.

So it is a pretty bad doom, but it likely won’t be bad for those who fly private! (see The social justice of coronashutdowns)

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