Category: Coronapanic

What is the most sensible scientifically informed response to a virus that attacks the obese and unfit? Sit at home next to the fridge for a year. Could this kill us? “Inactivity Drives 1 in 14 Deaths Globally, New Data Suggest” (Medscape, March 31):

The high cost of a sedentary lifestyle just became a bit more evident ― a new global study shows that inactivity drives up to 8% of noncommunicable diseases and mortality.

Physical inactivity, defined as engaging in less than 150 minutes of moderate-intensity or 75 minutes of vigorous-intensity physical activity per week, is estimated to have caused 7.2% (95% CI, 5.4 – 9.0) of all-cause deaths and 7.6% (95% CI, 6.1 – 9.3) of cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths, according to investigators led by Peter T. Katzmarzyk, PhD, associate executive director for population and public health sciences, Pennington Biomedical Research Center, Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

Note that the study was done using 2016 data. See “Physical inactivity and non-communicable disease burden in low-income, middle-income and high-income countries” (BMJ)

What about the expectations that Americans would die from the disruption in non-Covid health care ordered by governors? “The Untold Toll — The Pandemic’s Effects on Patients without Covid-19” (NEJM, June 2020) had anecdotes, but no numbers. “Surge in Advanced Cancers Follows COVID-19 Into 2021” (MedPage Today, March 31, 2021) offers some survey data:

Two-thirds of radiation oncologists said new patients more often have advanced-stage disease at their initial clinic visit as compared with prior years. Consistent with data from multiple other sources, three-fourths of respondents said patients have skipped routine cancer screening, and two-thirds said COVID has interrupted treatment for existing patients.

“What we have learned one year into the COVID-19 pandemic is that radiation oncologists continue to see the harmful effects of the pandemic on our patients,” said Thomas J. Eichler, MD, chair of ASTRO’s board of directors, during a webinar to discuss the survey findings. “The data are clear that people with cancer are facing additional burdens in these difficult times.”

(bonus points to this doc for including the phrase “in these times”)

The same publication reminds us that feeling safe is not just about Covid-19. The director of abortion services at a clinic in Bangor, Maine writes “It’s Time for You to Be More Inclusive — Yes, You.”:

Small steps to support transgender patients go a long way in their healthcare

I recently saw a new patient seeking help addressing substance abuse issues. It was our first time meeting, so when I entered the exam room, I introduced myself with my name and my pronouns, as I always do. Before I even offered any advice or asked a question, the patient’s face lit up with a smile. She explained that she was a transgender woman, and hearing me introduce myself with my pronouns was a huge relief, because it showed her that I would treat her with respect.

She quickly opened up to me, describing how she was grappling with a host of challenges and stresses that were made even worse because other people in her life — including other doctors — didn’t understand, didn’t respect, or outright rejected her identity.

Something as simple as including your pronouns when you introduce yourself can indicate that you are an ally and contribute to a sense of safety and inclusion.

I say that I provide abortions, prenatal care, birth control or other resources to pregnant people, not just pregnant women, because all people deserve the right to make their own decisions about if, when, or how they want to have children, without facing judgement.

Separately, if there is a person on this planet who can get through a winter in Bangor, Maine without drinking heavily, consuming drugs, and considering a gender change, I would love to meet him/her/zir/them.

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TLDR: If we denied children a year of school and spent $trillions, shouldn’t we have something to show for that?

The CDC sped up its tally of deaths in 2020 and now says that American deaths in 2020 were 16 percent higher than in 2019 (CNBC). COVID-19 is now highlighted as the third leading cause of death. If we adjust for U.S. population growth (somewhat difficult to assess because of the undocumented), that’s perhaps a 15 percent higher death rate.

Considering the loss of a year of education for American children, the loss of liberty for American adults, and $trillions in tax dollars flushed down the toilet, this seems like a spectacular failure. While our state governors issued orders to residents and Americans waited for Dr. Fauci to tell them whether it was safe to roast a turkey, Sweden continued to live within its existing framework of laws and customs, e.g., sending children to school, adults to the gym and social life, etc. Swedes did not don the hijab of the Church of Shutdown for hours each day. Sweden ended up with 10 percent more deaths than in 2019 (Statista; note that 2019 seems to have been an unusually death-free year in Sweden and also that, due to population growth, the 2020 death rate was, in fact, lower than the death rate in 2010). Sweden also has a growing population, so a total higher than 10 percent might translate to a rate that is 9 percent higher.

Also from the CNBC article:

It typically takes researchers 11 months after the end of the calendar year to investigate “certain causes of death and to process and review data.” While the daily total Covid death figures reported by the CDC are timely, they can underestimate the actual number of deaths because of “incomplete or delayed reporting.”

For those who believe that humans are in charge of the coronavirus, I imagine that the take-away from these data will be to double down on shutdowns and masks. The assumption will be that, absent our heroic sacrifices, deaths in the U.S. would have been 300 percent higher in 2020 than in 2019, so holding the increase to only 16 percent demonstrates how effective shutdowns and masks are. That masked-and-locked California and wide-open Florida are right next to each other in states ranked by Covid-19 death rate (

) will not be cause to question the assumption that masks and lockdowns are highly effective. (Note that California’s COVID-19 death rate is substantially higher than Florida’s if you consider the over-65 population that is actually vulnerable to COVID-19. Florida has roughly 50% more seniors as a percentage of its population.)

Finally, let’s not forget that our 2020 aggregate deaths also include deaths caused by the shutdown, e.g., people who didn’t get the cardiology procedures that they would have had, extra drug overdoses, etc.

Readers who love masks and shutdowns: Given that deaths in 2020 were 16 percent higher than in 2019, how many American lives do you think were actually “saved” compared to if state governors and local government had done nothing (so we’d still have had Trump funding the vaccines, the CDC messing up initial testing, etc., but there would have been no shutdowns, no masks, and kids would have been in school; we still would have had media hysteria, so presumably a lot of the elderly/vulnerable and elite would have hidden in bunkers voluntarily). We’re fatter than the Swedes and COVID-19 loves to kill the fat, but plenty of Swedes are also overweight. (But don’t count the 20 lbs. that people gained during the year that their governors ordered them to spend next to the fridge!)

Related:

• Friend in Texas runs, but cannot hide, from coronavirus
• We ran but could not hide: more than half of Americans have now had COVID-19

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Americans are currently living under a forecast of “impending doom” from our CDC Director. Let’s review how folks in Minnesota reacted when their doom was forecast by scientists.

From March 25, 2020, “Governor Walz Issues Stay at Home Order for Minnesotans”:

Modeling released today by the Minnesota Department of Health and University of Minnesota predicts that more than 70,000 Minnesotans could die from COVID-19 if we take no action. The Governor’s two-week order to stay home is forecasted to significantly slow the spread of COVID-19 and allow the state time to make key preparations for the pandemic.

14 days to flatten the curve!

A year later, Matt Malkus looked at this.

Over the past 12 months, nearly 7,000 people in Minnesota actually did die with or from COVID-19, 0.12 percent of the estimated 5.7 million population (though not even Yale knows how many undocumented Americans live in America). So if we believe the model estimate of 70,000 dead, we could say that the cower-in-place keep-schools-closed-for-a-year strategy worked! How does the 0.12 percent death rate compare to what happened in give-the-finger-to-the-virus Sweden, from which many Minnesotans can trace their ancestry? This list of countries by COVID-19 death rate puts Sweden at a 0.13 percent COVID death rate (Sweden automatically tags anyone with a positive PCR test as a “COVID death”).

(As in Massachusetts, Minnesota does not include deaths by age or age group on their dashboard. Only “cases” are published and therefore a reader is left with the impression that COVID-19 primarily afflicts young and middle-aged Minnesotans:

if you had to guess the median age of a COVID-19 death from this chart you might pick 38 (it was 82 in Massachusetts before the data were pulled from the dashboard). Where Minnesota provides comprehensive charts, though, is in “COVID-19 Data by Race/Ethnicity”:

COVID-19 is exposing what has always been true: racism is pervasive and persistent. … We know that communities of color and Indigenous communities don’t need data to verify their experience. … In developing the dashboard, we knew it was important to provide descriptions that accompany the data to provide context so that false information and misunderstandings do not perpetrate harmful rhetoric and racial disparities.

For those prejudiced whites who might try to avoid their Latinx brothers, sisters, and binary resisters as carriers of disease… the Minnesota government anti-racism specialists helpfully explain that “Latinx Minnesotans are testing positive for COVID-19 at nearly 3 times the rate of white Minnesotans.”)

Related:

• From 1.5 months after the lockdown, a version of the scientists’ code on GitHub

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From state-sponsored media (NPR) yesterday, “CDC Director Fears ‘Impending Doom’ If U.S. Opens Too Quickly”:

In an emotional plea during the White House COVID-19 Response Team briefing on Monday, the CDC chief, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, described a feeling of “impending doom.”

The cause of her concern? A rising number of coronavirus cases in the United States. The most recent seven-day average is just below 60,000 cases per day – a 10% increase compared with the previous week.

Hospitalizations are up, too: about 4,800 admissions per day over the last week, up from an average 4,600 per day in the previous seven-day period. And deaths, which tend to lag cases and hospitalizations, have also begun to rise: increasing nearly 3%, to a seven-day average of about 1,000 per day.

I wonder which states she could be talking about?

“We’re in the life and death race with a virus that is spreading quickly, with cases rising again,” Biden said at the White House on Monday afternoon. “New variants are spreading and sadly some of the reckless behavior we’ve seen on television over the past few weeks means more cases are to come in the weeks ahead.”

Our greatest scientist:

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, agreed. “If we open up completely now, that is premature, given the level of infection” currently seen in the U.S., Fauci said. He added that even as the warm weather gives us the urge “to just cut loose, we’ve just got to hang in there a bit longer.” The likely reason for the uptick in cases, he said, is that states are opening up too quickly.

At first glance, a forecast of impending doom makes sense. However bad things were in the past, they can only get worse. Sweden gave the finger to the coronavirus and now only 99.87 percent of Swedes remain alive (see also Sweden will have a lower death rate in 2020 than it had in 2010). But the virus that killed 0.13 percent of Swedes attacked a population that was initially uninfected and unvaccinated. The doomsayer’s own agency estimates that roughly half of Americans have already had COVID-19. And the NPR article says that most of the Americans who are potentially vulnerable to dying from COVID-19 have already been vaccinated:

Among seniors, 73% have now received at least their first dose. Among all U.S. adults, 36% have received at least one dose. And more than 50 million Americans – nearly one in five adults — are fully vaccinated.

The CDC says that the vaccines are 90 percent effective (new paper). The CDC says that COVID-19 is “involved” in deaths primarily among those 65 and over:

(Biology students should note that #Science says it is “All Sexes” and not “Both Sexes”.)

How do we combine all of the above into “impending doom”? We have immunity from infection + immunity among the older/vulnerable from vaccines + #science saying that vaccines are 90% effective = doom.

Less dramatically, how can all of the above combine to yield the rising hospitalization and death rates described in the article?

Related… the CDC itself says that the vaccines don’t work well enough to exempt the vaccinated from COVID-19 testing on returning to the U.S.:

(Maybe the fear of letting a vaccinated, yet COVID-19-positive, person into a country that has more than 60,000 new “cases” (positive PCR tests) is that the traveler will bring a radical variant to our shores? But if the variant is truly radical, wouldn’t a standard PCR test come back negative anyway?)

And from our science-following leader, “Biden Pushes Mask Mandate as C.D.C. Director Warns of ‘Impending Doom’” (NYT):

President Biden, facing a rise in coronavirus cases around the country, called on Monday for governors and mayors to reinstate mask mandates as the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned of “impending doom” from a potential fourth surge of the pandemic.

Masks worked for the Czech Republic, Slovenia, and Slovakia, so they will make all the difference here…

If the forecast of “doom” has you rethinking your migration-via-Cirrus-or-Bonanza… “Psaki: Biden, Harris fly private, don’t need to follow CDC travel suggestions” (New York Post, yesterday):

President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris don’t need to worry about flouting Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommendations against nonessential travel, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Monday.

The reason: They both fly private.

Psaki made the comments after being asked at her daily press briefing about the commander-in-chief’s recent trips amid continued advisories from the health agency against traveling — even if fully vaccinated.

“I would say that the president travels, as does the vice president, on a private plane. That is the purview of every president and vice president throughout American history,” the press secretary said of Air Force One and Two.

So it is a pretty bad doom, but it likely won’t be bad for those who fly private! (see The social justice of coronashutdowns)

Related:

• “Two-thirds of global disease experts believe coronavirus variants will make vaccines ineffective within ONE YEAR” (from the Journal of Postal Studies): Surveyors interviewed 77 epidemiologists, virologists and infectious disease specialists about coronavirus vaccines. A total of 66.2% said they believe that within one year, mutations of the virus will render vaccines ineffective. Of that group, 18.2% said they believed it would occur within six months and 32.5% said within nine months.

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Today is the one-year anniversary of the Slovenian government ordering residents to wear face masks. From Wikipedia:

From 29 March, wearing a face mask, even one made at home, or equivalents such as scarves that cover the mouth and nose, is mandatory along with protective gloves; the decree stipulates that masks and gloves need to be worn in indoor public spaces. As of 15 October 2020 face masks or equivalent face coverings are required everywhere in public spaces (including outdoors) for any of the statistical regions designated as “red” (more than 140 confirmed infected per 100k population)

American say-gooders had good things to say about Slovenia. From Vox, May 5, 2020:

It seems like some countries have figured out not only how to flatten their coronavirus curves, but also how to send them plunging downward. From Slovenia to Jordan to Iceland, governments took early action to impose lockdowns, test and trace thousands of people, isolate the sick, encourage social distancing and preventive measures like mask wearing, and communicate honestly with the public. In effect, they followed the prescribed playbook for such a pandemic, and — surprise, surprise — it worked.

(Note that the WHO’s prescribed playbook for a pandemic, prior to 2020, explicitly said “do not wear masks or close borders unless you’re an island”)

Its success mainly stems from an aggressive early lockdown, quarantines of sick people, and generous government spending.

What Slovenia has shown, then, is that aggressive government action and intervention can help keep people from spreading the disease. Even by the government’s own numbers, it could do more testing, but for now, the current measures appear to be working.

How has a year of science-informed “aggressive government action” worked out? Slovenia is #3 on the leaderboard of countries ranked by COVID-19 death rate. Only Belgium and the Czech Republic (masked since March 18, 2020) have had a larger percentage of the population killed by COVID-19.

Our government is impressed enough by these statistics to use our hard-earned tax dollars to buy Facebook ads. From March 16:

The Golf Hotel Mokrice Castle near Brežice:

Related:

• Slovenian border barrier (folks in Slovenia follow science, but fail to recognize how much wealthier a country can become via low-skill migration)
• Pipistrel, a world leader in aviation innovation (including electric airplanes), based in Slovenia
• Melania Trump, the country’s most famous export

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